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To me, it looked like Denman set exactly the same kind of gallop he did in the Hennessy – soft-softly at first, and then gradually wound-up in the last mile-and-a-half. In fact, it looked almost identical – the only discernable difference being that whereas poor horses were unable to stay with him at Newbury, smarter ones were able to finish much closer today.
The Hennessy form has yet to receive a worthwhile boost from anything other than Denman himself. And whilst today’s performance was clearly high-class, I don’t think it was an improvement from his effort in the Hennessy. It still leaves him about 10lbs short (imo) of what it will take to beat Kauto Star at Cheltenham.
What do we take from Mossbank’s performance there? ? ?
Ran a decent race.
Hard to believe, whatever the pace, that the 3 horses close behind him today would have got within hailing distance of Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer.
Can’t have that at all Reet HArd. They went no pace in the Gold Cup last year – the result? – Turpin Green got within 5 lengths of Kauto Star (and he is nowhere near as good as The Listener or BOS in Ireland for me).
If they don’t go a good gallop you will essentially get results that can’t be rated that high. In fact, as many people have said that Denman’s weakness is his lack of gears, it is surely to his credit that he was able to win this race at all off such a pace?
Denman still has to improve to win the Gold Cup, but he is unbeaten and has never looked like getting beaten in recent starts. I think if they had gone faster today he would have won further and if they make the Gold Cup a real test, he will beat Kauto Star.
I thought Denman was impressive enough today. He jumped great and never looked in any real danger. I think he’ll be better suited to a stronger gallop although with the likelyhood of a small field for this years Gold Cup he’ll probably have to set that gallop from the front himself. Personally, I think whatever pace he goes he’s going to be a sitting duck for Kauto Star to pass at the business end of the Gold Cup and I think he could be vunerable to Exotic Dancer as well. I don’t really think Denman should be so much shorter in the betting than ED and at the current prices I think ED is good value.
I thought he did what he had to and didn’t get a hard race, which was surely the object of the exercise.
He’s a very clever jumper now who can put himself right. I’d have to agree that Kuato looks the most likely winner of a good ground Gold Cup, but the softer the better for this handsome staying beast- I’d love to watch him at Aintree!
Mossbank ran a cracker but was probably slightly flattered: I’m always a bit bemused when trainers throw away a good handicap mark for the sake of running placed in a conditions race- he’ll go up over a stone and proved today that he could have won something like a Racing Post Chase off his old mark- handicaps will be out now and he could be hard to place.Personally I think Kauto stays all day and Denman would be better off trying to dictate in the same manner as he did today. "Softly, softly" as Grasshopper says and then wind it up after half way. Denman is no slouch and carries such good momentum over his fences. If he makes it a real test then I believe he would be more susceptible to Kauto and ED when under real pressure.
I also think however that Ruby will stay within touching distance of the big horse throughout the race (I’m pretty confident Ruby will be on Kauto) and go on to beat him a couple of lengths..
TDK said "Can’t have that at all Reet HArd. They went no pace in the Gold Cup last year – the result? – Turpin Green got within 5 lengths of Kauto Star (and he is nowhere near as good as The Listener or BOS in Ireland for me). "
I’m with TDK on the above statement. I also think (getting ready for the flak here ) that The Listener is as good a yardstick as Exotic Dancer and if it comes up soft at Cheltenham then the Ryanair is a shoe in for The Listener. Furthermore I’m not completely sure that Kauto Star will stay the Gold Cup distance in a truely run race so I’m hoping if both Denman & Kauto Star get to the Gold Cup in peak fitness a truely run race is what we get. If that is the case and KS wins then I think there is no reason why KS cannot be judged as an exceptional champion but I wait to be convinced.
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TDK said "Can’t have that at all Reet HArd. They went no pace in the Gold Cup last year – the result? – Turpin Green got within 5 lengths of Kauto Star (and he is nowhere near as good as The Listener or BOS in Ireland for me). "
I’m with TDK on the above statement. I also think (getting ready for the flak here ) that The Listener is as good a yardstick as Exotic Dancer and if it comes up soft at Cheltenham then the Ryanair is a shoe in for The Listener. Furthermore I’m not completely sure that Kauto Star will stay the Gold Cup distance in a truely run race so I’m hoping if both Denman & Kauto Star get to the Gold Cup in peak fitness a truely run race is what we get. If that is the case and KS wins then I think there is no reason why KS cannot be judged as an exceptional champion but I wait to be convinced.
Leave it out, Aaron.
The Listener was given an easy time as possible today to conserve his doubtful stamina, (Which still gave out in the end), and was never given the chance to dominate as he has in most of his better runs simply because he wouldn’t have lasted home.
Beef Or Salmon needs a good test nowadays to get anywhere near the front, and the only reason he finished so close up is he was able to keep up with the married man’s pace until the last 4f. His proximity today, in circumstances far from his ideal, does nothing at all for the worth of the form as a whole.Personally I think Kauto stays all day
Well, he may do, but the evidence so far is that he’s capable of exceptional form at short of 3m and the one time he ran beyond the trip was in a slowly run race in which he quickened superbly and was actually coming back slightly to his main rival at the end.
Personally, I think he does not stay all day.
This was a much better performance than he put up in the Hennessy.
I thought it was a cracking race and as run at a very decent pace…..The Irish had a plan and everything went they way they wanted. The jockey on The Listener rode him to perfection and made a text book move at exactly at the right time.
That move looked decisive for a moment or two and would have put an end to most horses but Ruby asked Denman the question and he responded beautifully.
Within a few strides he was back in command and the race was never in doubt afterwards.
at a cru
While Ruby didn’t knock him about he did ride him out to the line. Had he gave him a smack or two he wouldn’t have won any further and that is the truth of the matter. There was absolutely nothing more the horse could have givenI think we saw the very best of Denman today. I actually thought the Listener would have got closer but he simply wasn’t good enough.
In the end three decent horses finished in a heap behind him which tells me the form is rock solid.
Denman has earned his place in the Gold Cup today and has more chance of beating Kauto Star than Exotic Dancer has IMO.
I think PN will have a 1-2 in the Gold Cup…….This horse could set such a pace it will have everything in trouble by half way…everything except Kauto that is……….The value has gone out the race but If I was recommending anyone to have a bet I would be looking for a big priced horse who runs on at one pace…..Turpin Green I like very much and he would be my EW bet.
FOF,
Not sure which race you were watching, and I await Prufrock’s sectionals for clarification, but I wouldn’t describe the gallop we saw today as ‘very decent’.
It looked a very leisurely stroll to the naked eye and although the bare form leaves him with something to find, we still haven’t seen him at his best. Hopefully he will get that chance at Cheltenham in March.
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FoF
“I thought it was a cracking race and as run at a very decent pace….
You must have very quick tv pictures in Thailand?
The race was run almost 4 seconds slower than the novice race over the same distance, and hellishly slow compared to all of the hurdle races.
Incidentally, how do you get to watch these races at all?Personally I think Kauto stays all day
Well, he may do, but the evidence so far is that he’s capable of exceptional form at short of 3m and the one time he ran beyond the trip was in a slowly run race in which he quickened superbly and was actually coming back slightly to his main rival at the end.
Personally, I think he does not stay all day.
The evidence suggests he has obtained his highest rating over three miles when his stamina was tested….last year in heavy ground in the Haydock chase and this year he was at his most impressive at Kempton when he had a strongly run race.
His Gold Cup performance was his least impressive due to the pace of the race. Had it been strongly run (as others have said) he would have been more impressive.
Many are talking about Denman drawing the sting out of KS by taking it up a mile out or even earlier.Its all well and good talking about a horse trying to draw the sting out of a horse like Kauto Star (who has yet to show any stamina doubts at all) but its extremely tough to make a big move early in the race like a Gold Cup. He’ll need to judge it right or else he’ll be swallowed up by Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer…he probably will anway.
Kauto Star looked awesome when he was given a lead and a strong gallop on Tuesday in the King George. Assuming the ground is good (possibly even better) it will be extremely difficult to get him off the bit let alone draw the sting from him.
Where do you get "heavy ground" in last season’s Betfair Chase?
I’d agree that his run at Kempton the other day was more convincing in this respect. A lot more convincing than this year’s Betfair Chase, at least.
Pru, he’s capable of outstanding form at 2-3m not just distances short of 3m.
Last years GC does leave a lingering doubt in the mind but he sees out 3m better than anything around at the moment (On ratings anyway). I’m also starting to believe that he’s as good if not better on soft ground.
I hope this years GC is run at proper gallop and we can truly find out whether he’ll come up the hill first. Can’t wait!!
I think that old chestnut ‘workmanlike’ was the right description for Denman. He looks a relentless galloper so you would have to think he would have been more impressive off a faster pace. Possibly the horse to take from the race is Mossbank. He travelled very well for much of the way and if his jumping holds up I could see him dropping back in trip for a race like the Ryanair.
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Personally I think Kauto stays all day
Well, he may do, but the evidence so far is that he’s capable of exceptional form at short of 3m and the one time he ran beyond the trip was in a slowly run race in which he quickened superbly and was actually coming back slightly to his main rival at the end.
Personally, I think he does not stay all day.
I agree with Prufrock on this one for much the same reasons, and thought last year’s Gold Cup stretched his stamina almost to its limit.
It’s also noticeable that he has had most of his races below that trip won well before the distance, and nearly all the bad blunders came at the very end of those races. To say he was inconvenienced by the slow pace in the GC ignores the acceleration he has shown at a variety of distances and paces previously.
That isn’t to say that his class and his improved jumping won’t carry him to further GC victories, but not something I’d bet on on proper soft ground.
Most assume at this stage that Denman will make the race a rigid test, I still say he has yet to prove capable of doing so in such a high class field, particularly without any help from the ground.
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