Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Lexus 2011
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December 26, 2011 at 22:28 #384274
Would not take too much notice of that THM.
Sarando lost his confidence through a fall in the Hennessy, Wayward Prince is also prone to jumping errorsand Golan Way was outclassed/needs to lead and couldn’t keep up.Value Is EverythingDecember 26, 2011 at 22:32 #384277Most horses can "quicken clear" of an Aintree Grand National winner Reet.
Over 62 seconds slow not slow enough for you then?
Quito De La Roque last time was 32.8 seconds slow.
I’d much rather listen to Jack Van Berg.
What’s the great trainer got to do with it EF?
Value Is EverythingDecember 27, 2011 at 10:45 #384351"Time only counts when you’re in prison"
December 27, 2011 at 19:50 #384482The Great Quito De La Roque will win hopefully for connections and be on his way to first of many Gold Cups.
December 28, 2011 at 10:25 #384565Would be very surprised if Joncol or QDLR have enough pace to keep up with Rubi Light today.
NH breeding seems a bit of guess work to me. Red Rum and Kauto Star good evidence of that. Would have no concerns about the trip for Rubi Light at all. So much is made of horses stepping up in trip and whether they’ll handle it. I remember everyone was so sure 2 years ago that Imperial Commander wouldn’t even stay 3 miles in the Betfair at Haydock against Kauto Star, let alone winning a Gold Cup.
I was certain that War of Attrition wouldn’t stay 3 miles pre-Lexus before he finished 2nd in that to Beefie and then won the Gold Cup on his next start.
December 28, 2011 at 11:43 #384571I can remember more than few telling me I was nuts when I said Don’t Push It would get 3 miles standing on his head.
I don’t have a clue if Rubi Light will stay or not’
He was definitely tiring a bit and Joncol gaining last time but then he had gone very quick for along way so was entitled to be, but it does worry me slightly.
I think it was Rory Delargy who said he’s sense no sense in holding a horse up who usually races up with the pace just because he’s stepping up in trip.
Although it may not apply to every horse I think he’s right in this case. Rubi Light looks as happy as a pig in sh*t bowling along in front and might resent a change in tactics. At the end of the day he’ll either get the trip or he won’t.
Class horses often get away with racing further than they really stay when racing against mediocre horses but there is no in between in this class.
I hope they look at it as business as usual and just let him do his own thing.
I just watched the slow boat to China QDLR doing his thing last time out. He was so far behind Sizing Europe and the Nightingale and going no where I still can’t believe Davey Russell got him up. He didn’t half give the horse a leathering and I’d worry for DR if he rides him at Cheltenham, he’ll be out of whip strokes before they jump the 3rd fence.
Intriguing race, one likes to go off in front, while the other can be a fence behind and still catch you.
For those of you have backed QDLR already tut! tut! tut! he’s almost guaranteed to be be 4 times the price in running.
Good luck all
December 28, 2011 at 11:46 #384573I fancy Rubi Light to win as he looks the business and I don’t think the distance or ground will be a problem. I’m sure QDLR will be thereabouts as he will stay all day but he’s as slow as a snail ….and I have my concerns about him keeping up with RL when it really matters. Rubi Light for me by a few lengths.
December 28, 2011 at 15:25 #384600I hate being right all the time; Quito is just too slow, Rubi Light, didn’t benefit by being retrained to get the trip, Roberto Goldblack finishing so close puts the quality of the race in perspective. Synchronised very impressive all the same, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t take his chance in the GC
December 28, 2011 at 15:38 #384602I hate being right all the time; Quito is just too slow, Rubi Light, didn’t benefit by being retrained to get the trip, Roberto Goldblack finishing so close puts the quality of the race in perspective. Synchronised very impressive all the same, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t take his chance in the GC
Well played if you backed
Synchronised
befair as i am still in a state of shock that the very one paced plodder that i thought he was has won this prestigious Grade 1. When did a Midlands National winner ever win a Grade 1,notice how i didn’t say Welsh National winner?
December 28, 2011 at 15:42 #384603Rubi Light actually increases his lead over QDLR between the last and the finishing post so highly doubtful stamina was the reason behind his defeat.
December 28, 2011 at 18:21 #384637Another good tip from Mr Segal. I managed to get a fiver on Synchronised before the price went. It struck me as odd that he was double digit odds as his Racing Post rating was about the same as the two favourites. Also Jonjo wouldn’t want to send McCoy and the horse on a trip to Ireland without having some sort of chance.
What was the case against him?
December 28, 2011 at 18:39 #384643Another good tip from Mr Segal. I managed to get a fiver on Synchronised before the price went. It struck me as odd that he was double digit odds as his Racing Post rating was about the same as the two favourites. Also Jonjo wouldn’t want to send McCoy and the horse on a trip to Ireland without having some sort of chance.
What was the case against him?
Case against Synchronised was:
He’s a dour stayer who loves very soft ground and 3 1/2 miles plus, who can’t jump.Or rather, that’s what he was last year.
Fact he missed the Welsh National… Put up his best ever hurdle form last time out… This his first chase start and is far better in this code.. AP went over – Were all pointers for an improved performance. But I just couldn’t see it happening on that ground.
Great isn’t it… My ante-post Welsh National bet beat my ante-post Lexus bet (who halved in odds) with my "saver" in third.
Good job I backed Le Beau Bai yesterday!
Value Is EverythingDecember 28, 2011 at 18:42 #384644Another good tip from Mr Segal. I managed to get a fiver on Synchronised before the price went. It struck me as odd that he was double digit odds as his Racing Post rating was about the same as the two favourites. Also Jonjo wouldn’t want to send McCoy and the horse on a trip to Ireland without having some sort of chance.
What was the case against him?
Perhaps the fact that the form that he had on good ground according to Segal didn’t seem to exist. Guessing from what he wrote he had successfully tipped the horse before and was expecting more rain – sometimes tipsters get lucky. Those of us who have watched Synchronised driven along towards the rear on soft ground might be forgiven for thinking we were watching a different horse.
December 28, 2011 at 19:35 #384664Synchronised won with ease today and either he’s improved since last year or the Irish staying chasers are cat. McCoy gave him a super ride but he’s surely not a Gold Cup horse si he
Quito travelled like I knew he could and looked the one to eb on turning out of the back straight. He missed the second last and didn’t fly up the hill like I thought he would. He seemed to hang a bit up the straight. A faster run race would suit him better but if anything today at least he proved he can travel like a good horse. A faster run race would surely have also suited Synchronised better.
Rubi Light also disappointed me. I thought that he and Quito would finish well ahead of Roberto Goldback, Noland and Syncronised, but I was bang wrong. He’ll need to up his game in the Ryanair.
There is the possibility that both Quito and Rubi Light were below par but there seems to be little evidence to support this argument.
December 28, 2011 at 19:36 #384665Saw AP interviewed on ATR at 4 o’clock and he said he never believed that the horse would necessarily need v soft ground – i suspect he’s pretty clued up on these matters.
December 28, 2011 at 19:41 #384668Quito wouldn’t fly if you stuck 4 million volts through him!
Apologies to Messrs Python
He might stay on past horses slowing up but he is never going to quicken.
December 28, 2011 at 22:11 #384687I wouldn’t have minded a fiver on the winner! I might back him now on Betfair as they’re still offering odds.
Rubi ran well but Synchronised was a revelation. He actually quickened away impressively on that ground. If that was the first time you had seen that horse you’d surely think he has a chance in the Gold Cup on that run.
Quito too slow but could win a Midlands National…wouldn’t that be ironic?!
Excellent pick by those that backed him; I don’t think the forum’s champion tipster was on(?).
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