The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Let’s try and count the inconsistencies…

Home Forums Horse Racing Let’s try and count the inconsistencies…

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • Author
  • #11898
    • Total Posts 4691

    A SACKED 22-year-old trainee City trader today reveals how he won a staggering £20 MILLION in a YEAR . . . betting on the horses.

    Serial gambler Elliott Short was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy with thousands of pounds worth of debts when he came up with a way of winning regularly that has eluded millions of punters since the dawn of racing.

    And today Elliott – who scooped £500,000 from one race while he was giving the News of the World this interview – wants to share his secret with YOU.

    "It was just a random idea of mine – and it just suddenly started to work out in a big way," says Elliott who has won £1.5 MILLION on a
    SINGLE RACE using his system. "I had my idea – and I stuck to my guns and now I’m a millionaire. It’s unbelievable but true."

    And you can see just how true it is by having a look at his account with online gambling giant Betfair shown on the right. This was how it stood just four weeks ago when his winnings stood at more than £17 MILLION.

    Since then, Elliott has won a further £3 MILLION after a hugely successful Royal Ascot week.

    His secret – the Holy Grail of the gambling world – lies within the old betting adage: "There’s only one winner – and that’s the bookie."

    Add to this a clever system – a basic knowledge of racing – and a few hundred quid to get you started.

    "The biggest mistake punters make is that they pick up the paper, see the favourite and put all their money on that horse," says Elliott.

    "That way the only real winner is the bookmaker because they are the ones picking up the hefty stakes every time these horses lose."

    So Elliott decided to turn his betting world upside down – and stop being the punter to BECOME the bookie instead. And gamble on the favourite LOSING.

    "On Betfair anyone can become a bookie – and when I discovered this, the money started to pour in," says Elliott.

    Members of Betfair – the world’s largest internet betting exchange – can back horses in the traditional way – but they can also ‘Lay’ bets – which means taking bets from other members around the world, just like a bookmaker.

    Elliott’s system is this: Every morning he picks up the Racing Post and in each race he selects the favourite plus another longer-priced runner.

    He then invites punters on the website to bet on these horses winning the race and he acts as the bookmaker, taking a maximum bet of £1,000 on each of the two mounts.

    More often than not, the favourite doesn’t win – and because Elliott is the bookie, he cashes in. But even if the favourite DOES win the race, Elliott’s system means that all the money punters have bet with him on the LOSING second horse can help him offset any losses. "It is much easier to predict which horses are going to lose, rather than which horse is going to win," says Elliott.

    "There is nothing crooked or illegal about it – I don’t have any inside information on races. I am basing my decisions on the form of horses which is available to all punters.

    "The other key fact is that normal bookies take bets on ALL the horses running in the race. That means that they have to pay out on the winner in every single race.

    "I don’t. I only take money on two horses – and do a lot of homework to ensure that both those horses will be losers."

    The only overhead on Betfair is the two per cent commission the site takes on all bets laid. Betfair has changed the face of the betting industry and works like the Tote on a race course – where all the bets are put in a pool and an individual horse’s odds is calculated according to what proportion of the pool is staked on it.

    The odds on Betfair are broadly similar to the starting prices in the bookies – but the site attracts high rollers who want to bet in huge sums. And Elliott is only too happy to take their money.

    At the famous Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival in March, Elliott won £1.5 million because 6-4 favourite Binocular was narrowly beaten.

    At the same meeting he scooped £900,000 when 6-5 favourite Kasbah Bliss toiled home more than 20 lengths behind the winner in the World Hurdle. "Even I was surprised about how poorly it did," says Elliott. "I was jumping up and down on my sofa." Even as Elliott met with our reporter, an 11-8 favourite, Monsieur Chevalier, was losing at Royal Ascot making him a cool £500,000. "It was one of my favourite races – a five furlong sprint. All kinds of things can go wrong for a horse," says Elliott.

    "The race can be lost in a split second. And that is what happened with Monsieur Chevalier."

    Yet there was a time when the former public schoolboy with A Levels in Economics, Maths and English was a loser himself.

    He caught the gambling bug at prestigious Malvern College. "I used to bet on everything with my friends and it was an immediate thrill," he says. And he was sacked from his £22,000-a-year job as a trainee City trader because his firm caught him betting during office hours.

    "I am ashamed to say I turned to drink and was losing thousands of pounds on stupid bets. My mother was particularly worried. I thought I could bet my way out of trouble. I was wrong." His debts meant he was verging on bankruptcy. But then he decided to throw the dice one last time and join Betfair. To get started laying bets he borrowed "a few thousand" from his stepfather and a school friend. "You can limit how much you have to pay out on Betfair – so losses can’t spiral out of control on one race," says Elliott.

    "Say if you wanted to lay a favourite at 1-2 odds and you had £200 in your account, you would be able to take bets up to a total stake of £400.

    "If the horse wins you lose the £200. But if it doesn’t, you get the £400 worth of bets. And that’s how you start to earn big bucks. It does sound easy, but it is risky and you have to have capital available to cover the bets if it doesn’t go your way."

    When Elliott started out, he would limit his potential losses by taking bets of £1,000 on two horses in each race.

    But as favourite after favourite was beaten his winnings spiralled into tens then hundreds of thousands. That gave Elliott leeway to take even bigger bets.

    "I’ve had my knocks and my off-days, says Elliott who once lost £1.9 MILLION on a day – but only when he was already a multi millionaire. "But the profits have by far outweighed any losses and the system has shown itself to work on most occasions, I have paid back all my debts, along with giving both my friend and stepdad a nice commission for their faith. Not many people would have bet on me."

    Now single Elliott – who split with his girlfriend just before he made it big – is planning to close down his Betfair account and bank his TAX-FREE £20 million winnings. But he’ll start gambling again with a £2 million float after some time off.

    "I’m going have a holiday and buy a couple of properties. That’s the plan anyway," he says. "Then I’ll start again. These days I don’t rigidly stick to my system because now I’m more experienced.

    "But I think if you’ve got the courage and the determination, and someone who will back your idea in the early stages, then you can earn a lot of money in this manner.

    "And if an academically lazy jobless guy like me can succeed, then so can anyone."

    Biggest win
    I won £1.5m in one race

    IT was Elliott’s biggest win – and by a split second. Binocular was hot favourite for the Champion Hurdle at 6-4 – but Elliott was convinced it would lose.

    So he abandoned his system and took bets totalling £1.5 million on the Nicky Henderson-trained runner. "I was in my office and had the TV on. I remember every inch of the race vividly because it was so close. I could see how hard jockey Tony McCoy was whipping Binocular to get it to the front.

    "My heart was in my mouth as Binocular, Celestial Halo and Punjabi, a 22-1 outsider, were heading for the line together at Cheltenham. When 22-1 outsider Punjabi won I leapt up in celebration. Then I got my breath back and worked out how much I had just won. That was a very good day at the office indeed."

    Biggest loss
    I lost £1.9m in one day

    HIS worst day began with a horse called Main Aim. Elliot expected it to lose at Newbury – but it won. And then he made the fundamental mistake of trying to chase his losses.

    "I threw all my rules out of the window and tried to win back my money, but I got it horribly wrong," he says. "I put a packet on the favourite in the next race. But it was won by a 25-1 outsider ironically called Never Lose. And in the next two races neither favourite won. If I had actually stuck to my system I could have probably earned back my winnings.

    "It proved to me once and for all why regular gambling is a mug’s game. And when I looked at my bank balance, I had racked up losses of £1.9million Luckily, by then, it didn’t dent my profits too much."


    ELLIOTT’S tips for picking his ‘winning losers’ are:

    * CHOOSE favourites in short distance sprints – like five furlongs. "A short race is always congested and the favourite can get hemmed in. It’s a real lottery.
    * WATCH trainers’ form. "When a stable is doing badly, often these horses are not well with a mild virus and they go into races with little chance. Trainers can go for weeks without having a winner."
    * WATCH your second horse’s weight. "Avoid laying runners with the bottom weight in a handicap. Lightly weighted horses can often win at long odds."

    Smells of something you’d find at a farm

    • Total Posts 6217

    The name Walter Mitty comes to mind……

    • Total Posts 346

    I think the clue is in the words below:


    • Total Posts 1988

    Only taking £1.5m out of a single horse? I didn’t realise they allowed stakes that small.

    • Total Posts 455

    Made me laugh. For starters, bookmakers don’t take a bet on all horses – try doing that as a racecourse layer at Leicester on a Monday afternoon. And as for sprints being more likely to throw up a losing favourite, that’s complete tosh. Since 1 Jan 2005 if you’d bet the clear favourite in a 5f-6f handicap in Britain you’d have lost 4.3%, over the same period backing handicap favs at 1m+ would have seen you lose 8.4%. SP of 7-2, means you’ve probably got to lay 4-1 on Betfair, then pay 2% comm and the poll tax (premium charge). Soon wipes out the 4.3% profit for layers.

    • Total Posts 1988

    There is a serious issue here. We all know racing is running out of fresh mugs willing to be defrauded by clerks of the course, jockey’s brothers and the the likes.

    Now I was under the impression that the situation was merely godawful on this front but this advertorial has got me absolutely petrified. If they’re reduced to issuing tripe of this order you wonder if we’re not actually at situation critical already. Can British Racing as we know it even last out the year?

    • Total Posts 455

    From Betfair….

    Betfair Customer Services 29 Jun 13:13
    We have been contacted by several customers in relation to an article in Sunday’s News of the World. We would like to make it clear that Betfair was not asked to comment on, or validate any aspect of, the article ahead of publication.

    Although we cannot comment on the activities of any specific customer, some facts which may be relevant to some of the claims made in the article include:

    the biggest winner in the relevant Britain’s Got Talent market (Susan Boyle winner – Yes/No) won less than £3,000.

    No Betfair customer won £1.5 million or anything even vaguely approaching that amount betting on the Champion Hurdle.

    No Betfair customer won £500,000 or anything even vaguely approaching that amount laying Monsieur Chevalier at Royal Ascot

    The figures shown in the account statement screenshot in the News Of the World do not reconcile to any Betfair account.

    The monies present in a Betfair account are obviously no indicator of the sums won or lost on the account.

    We would encourage customers to be wary of the claims of anyone purporting to have a profitable system or strategy.

    We would encourage customers to retain a healthy degree of scepticism toward any claims made in the press which are not validated by Betfair.

    • Total Posts 248

    I applaud the article.
    Creating the impression of "easy-money-to-be made" scenario will result in a new influx of gullible Layers to Betfair. And Betfair is sorely in need of money on the Lay side at present. A sizeable clutch of wide-eyed innocents engaging in a Laying frenzy of Favourites (as suggested in the article) will drive odds/prices into supervalue land.
    Temporarily at least, backers will be living in Pleasantville. Ultimately of course, the NOTW generation will retire to lick their inevitable wounds like the over-optimistic Layers of before, so make merry while the good times last. :
    We need wide-readership regular articles such as this NOTW one to keep the churn-rate at a healthy level. :twisted:

    • Total Posts 248

    Would be interesting to see this bullcrapper’s betting log for today.
    Only halfway though the afternoon, and so far the count reads Seven winning favs from seven races. :D

    • Total Posts 1708

    The only thing normally The News of The World gets right is the date and the price.

    However the article on Phil Curry yesterday in the R.P. was worth a read.

    Race commentator Phil Curry has chosen to give up his job next month and devote 100% of his time to punting.

    Phil Curry is a well known student of the form book and according to the R.P. article drives a Porsche and lives in a big house which he had built to his specifications.

    He is going to concentrate backing mainly ‘in running’ using exchange shops which offer the quickest feeds from the racecourses.

    It seems logical then he is looking at form for horses that are certain to stay the distance and then strike after the early front runners look like they are starting to fade but is it that simple?

    He gives Towcester as an example of a bad course for backing in running as many simply fall away up the run in there but for me horses that have won at Towcester and especially jockeys who have shown patience riding there in the past all seem to do well.

    However a form book student who claims to be above average he surely would have known this anyway.

    Curry also states that he starts the day with the plan to bet on every race but admits he rarely does.

    I have all day to devote to racing but there are many races where for various resons I just scrawl a line through the list of runners. Surely no one in the real World wishes to bet on every race?

    I do agree with him though where he states since the recession there seems to be a fall in the turnover ‘in running’ on Betfair.

    I rarely bet in running anyway as I simply do not see the sense in trying to beat players that have at least a few seconds advantage over me due to the speeds some trading rooms operate at.

    I wish him well anyway.

    % MAN
    • Total Posts 5104

    Phil Curry’s move into full time punting has been on the cards for some time and if anything I think the Post article underplays his success.

    The one aspect not mentioned in the post article, and it is probably the most significant aspect in terms of discipline, is he sets very strict limits in terms of the prices he will play at and will not go outside those limits – either way.

    Good luck to him.

Viewing 11 posts - 1 through 11 (of 11 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.