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This is all very much in it’s infancy for me, I want to be able to price a race up and get a price about what the favourite should be, more importantly what it should be on the place market.
I have adapted an excel model from an old system to size up each horses chance and then I want to work on a log that will tell me how competitive it will be, factor this into the overall price structure and take it from there.
It looks like I did loads today, but I’m just putting numbers into a matrix basically, the most time consuming part is typing in the name .. which I will automate if the process has any legs.
Sounds a very solid proposition. Are you intending to focus on any type of race in particular or wait to see where this works best?
I don’t know yet .. I’m going to get some data together first and see what happens, I think might be a bit more difficult than it seems to be.
Best of luck with this dave.
It looks a lot of hard work, but I know you enjoy it.
I think I’ll stick with trying to find winners for the moment as my time is limited for tinkering around with systems.
Cheers Atremis .. I’m only going to do this for a bit because it is a lot of messing.
The rest of the races from yesterday ..
Uttoxeter<br>6:00 Mon Micheal .. W 3.0 / P 1.50 (3.2 / 1.48) BACK Placed<br>6:30 Kavatcha .. W 2.0 / P 1.25 (1.66 / 1.13) LAY Lost<br>7:00 Longueville Manor W 1.7 / P 1.15 (1.79 / 1.22) SAME Won<br>7:35 Burren Moonshine W 8.8 / P 2.75 (4.8 / 1.91) BACK Lost
Sandown<br>6:20 Shamrock Lady .. W 3.8 / P 1.7 (3.6 / 1.61) LAY Lost<br>6:50 Holbeck Ghyll .. W 1.6 / 1.3 (3.05 / 1.56) BACK Lost<br>7:25 Ragheed .. W 3.8 / P 1.67 (7 / 2.72) BACK Lost<br>7:55 Hassaad .. W 2.2 / P 1.4 (2.58 / 1.44) BACK Lost<br>8:30 Purple Emperor .. W 2.3 / P 1.35 (2.08 / 1.31) LAY Lost<br>9:00 Wovoka .. W 5.8 / P 2.2 (6.8 / 2.16) BACK Lost
Yesterdays lays<br>All Lays for 7/6<br>3:35 Networker .. W 3.1 / P 1.53 LAY (2.7 / 1.46) Won<br>3:55 Express Wish .. W 2.7 / P 1.45 LAY (2.32 / 1.38) Won<br>4:25 Soldiers Tale .. W 2.3 / P 1.29 LAY (2.04 / 1.35) Lost<br>4:15 Armariver .. W 2.0 / P 1.22 LAY (1.9 / 1.19) Won<br>8:30 Purple Emperor .. W 2.3 / P 1.35 (2.08 / 1.31) LAY Lost<br>6:30 Kavatcha .. W 2.0 / P 1.25 (1.66 / 1.13) LAY Lost
#################################<br>Todays races …
Brighton<br>2:30 Sinead of Aglish .. W 1.4 / P 1.1<br>2:55 Chatshow .. W 2.5 / P 1.35<br>3:30 Colonel Cotton .. W 3.0 / P 1.74<br>4:05 Crossing the Line .. W 9.8 / P 2.96<br>4:40 Stamford Blue .. W 2.3 / P 1.44<br>5:15 Gold Digger Miss .. W 2.2 / P 1.38
Catterick<br>2:00 Speedy Senorita .. W 1.9 / P1.30<br>2:30 Tittilli .. W 2.1 / P 1.37<br>3:05 Whinhill House .. W 4.9 / P 2.10<br>3:40 Rainbow Bay .. W 3.9 / P 1.95<br>4:50 Slipasearcher .. W 6.1 / P 2.2<br>5:25 Sweet Pickle .. W 4.1 / P 1.75
#################################
:cheesy:
Brighton<br>2:20 Sinead of Aglish .. W 1.4 / P 1.1 (1.87 / 1.13) Back<br>2:55 Chatshow .. W 2.5 / P 1.35 (3.7 / 1.64) Back<br>3:30 Colonel Cotton .. W 3.0 / P 1.74 (3.65 / 1.92) Back<br>4:05 Crossing the Line .. W 9.8 / P 2.96 (3.9 / 1.58) Lay<br>4:40 Stamford Blue .. W 2.3 / P 1.44 (2.64 / 1.65) Back<br>5:15 Gold Digger Miss .. W 2.2 / P 1.38 (2.2 / 1.54) Same
Catterick<br>2:00 Speedy Senorita .. W 1.9 / P1.30 (2.08 / 1.32) Back<br>2:30 Tittilli .. W 2.1 / P 1.37 (2.92 / 1.87) Back<br>3:05 Whinhill House .. W 4.9 / P 2.10 (6.0 / 2.14 Back<br>3:40 Rainbow Bay .. W 3.9 / P 1.95 (3.8 / 2.28) Lay<br>4:50 Slipasearcher .. W 6.1 / P 2.2 (10.5 / 3.5) Back<br>5:25 Sweet Pickle .. W 4.1 / P 1.75 (3.45 / 1.53) Lay
Today’s lays <br>4:05 Crossing the Line .. W 9.8 / P 2.96 (3.9 / 1.58) Lay<br>3:40 Rainbow Bay .. W 3.9 / P 1.95 (3.8 / 2.28) Lay<br>5:25 Sweet Pickle .. W 4.1 / P 1.75 (3.45 / 1.53) Lay
I won’t be up-dating for a bit. I’ve just bought a new pc with windows Vista on it and nothing works .. so I’ll be updating and trying to get it sorted over the next few days.<br>:cool:
Good luck with Vista!
Get rid of mine and went back to XP.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
Well the new pc at home still isn’t working, so I can’t get this system up and running. So I have decided to use something else, in the meantime.
What I will do is the the best NAPs of the day from the racingpost, that will be the top and second top horses with the most number of tips from the table. No lays at more than 3.0 (2/1) on betfair. All lays to be proofed at BF prices at lunchtime. All lays staked to take out £2.
14/6<br>4.45 L .. Dramatic<br>3:50 N .. Basaata<br>4:35 Y .. My Love Thomas<br>4:55 N .. Goodbye
Let’s see how this goes .. we will find out if tipsters are over bet or not .. I get the sneaking suspicion that they won’t be.
14/6 <br>4.45 L .. Dramatic (1.51) £1.02 risked to win £1.90 W2/5<br>3:50 N .. Basaata (7.2) No bet<br>4:35 Y .. My Love Thomas (2.98) £3.96 risked to win £1.90 NR<br>4:55 N .. Goodbye NR
risk: 1.02<br>balance : -1.02
(Edited by dave jay at 5:00 pm on June 14, 2007)
Right the tipsters haven’t really gone for anything today, so I’m going to put a minimum rule of .. must have been tipped by 5 tipsters or more to qualify for a lay.
No bet today
i have a suggestion for exchange punters lay tony m,coy,s mounts at smaller meetings when they are odds on as he seems to be a false price most of the time be interesting to see how they do over a period im going to keep a record not an exchange punter myself as i.m out most of day
An interesting point victor, laying horses is probably harder than trying to back them .. the top jockeys are overbet as are the top form horses but if it’s enough to overcome commission, I don’t know.
I’ve been tracking a little laying system, which is very simple but is performing with credit to date.
I take the Racing Post favourite, then look at the Topspeed figure. If the Topspeed is 75% or less of the highest Topspeed in the race, its a lay.
Been tracking since a month ago (28th May), with one week off when I was on holiday.
Results so far as follows:
Bets73<br>Losers58<br>Lose %79.45<br>Av Odds3.308219178<br>Winners15<br>Total win odds40.54<br>Ave Win Odds2.702666667
So that’s just shy of 11/4 for average winner.
P/L to 16% over SP and 5% commission is currently £97, starting with £400 bank and betting rolling 5% (i.e. first bet £20, then £19 or £21 depending on result).
I’ve tried to use a few more ‘user defined’ criteria to get down to one horse a day, and the results are:
Bets19<br>Losers14<br>Lose %73.68<br>Av Odds1.50<br>Winners5<br>Total win odds6.59<br>Ave Win Odds1.318
So that’s just less that 11/8 (to SP) when I lay a winner. A nice little profit here.
I usually, though not always, post my lays on my blog, and may post them here too if anyone’s interested?
Today’s ‘system’ lays are:
HamiltonCompton Dragon<br>HamiltonMatty Tun<br>LeicesterDr Dream<br>LeicesterAjaan<br>LeicesterSnake Skin<br>NewcastleCheery Cat<br>WarwickApache Nation<br>WarwickSharmy
(I know Leicester’s off, but included for reference / completeness).
For information, I’ll not be laying anything as I don’t like to lay at bigger than 5/2. (I get a squeaky bum very easily!)
Matt
Hi Dave
I do. Basically, and this is a little crude, I have an Excel algorithm that takes SP and multiplies by 1.16 on winning lays (i.e. where I have to pay out), but takes 5% off my target profit on losing lays (i.e. where I get the horse beaten).
So the system is recorded against SP.
All prices quoted as average prices etc are SP quotes.
Hope that makes sense.<br>
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