Laying System

[dave jay]

I was thinking about systems and stuff generally and all of those old nuggets I’ve got stashed away in a cupboard somewhere.

I have never come across a system designed specifically for laying, with set rules and all that .. the odd forum system that I’ve seen has always been proofed against SP which is a bit of a joke really.

I am think of writing up a laying system for myself .. has anyone come across anything that might set me in the right direction, or is interested in doing a joint venture, on the open forum or in private?

[Matron]

Very simple system Dave.

In a race where there is an "odds-on" shot, lay the second favourite. (Best do this just before the off and not the paper forecast.) Minimum of 7 runners and prices between 2/1 – 4/1. (Only 23% strike rate of winning.)

Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

N.B. This would have been a good race to play with.

3.10 Nottingham

1st 4 Farefield Lodge (IRE) 4-6 F<br>2nd 3 Castano 11-4<br>3rd 9 Musical Parkes 20-1

(Edited by Matron at 5:15 pm on June 6, 2007)

[Artemis]

Hi dave,

I’m still churning out my ratings and making a tissue based on (1 ratings point = 4 percentage probability points). As well as pinpointing decent value bets, it can also identify those horses that look to be poor value.<br>Dangerous ground, I know, because the market knows much more than any individual’s ratings.

I don’t rate every race and I know you like to tinker with your own ratings, so perhaps we might look at a few races to see if our tissue picks out anything that we agree is too short and therefore laying material. Maybe just one race a day and anyone else can join in on open forum to see how it goes.

Things have gone a bit quiet down this end, so it might create interest.

I propose the 7.55 at Sandown tomorrow(June 7th) to get the ball rolling. I’ll post my tissue at about 9.30am.

[Andrew Hughes]

I might have a go at that as well, if that’s okay – my tissue might be a little later in the day (as I have a dentist appointment earlier and the only tissues I’ll be interested in are the ones you use to stop the bleeding)

[dave jay]

Okay then it’s a date .. I’ll put something up tomorrow.

I was thinking more along the lines of doing a proper rules style system. The prices on betfair around lunchtime are cronic at the moment, if you stay in single figures.

It might be a good idea to try and say back/lay ? Do your back price and then a lay price .. compare it with what you would be able to do on betfair at say 1pm and then see how you got on. I’ll see if I can get a screen grab of the market at lunchtime tomorrow.

Welcome to the systems dungeon Aranalde .. :biggrin:

[dave jay]

This isn’t really a race I would do but these are my prices for laying .. <br>7:55 Sandown .. Hassaad @ 2.9

These are some prices for laying in some of other races;<br>Hamilton<br>2:00 Lady Benjamin 2.2<br>2:30 Divine Spirit 4.7<br>3:00 Riverside Dancer 3.5<br>3:30 Networker 3.6

.. more tomorrow

[Artemis]

dave,

I realise that this isn’t really a ‘system’ in the sense that there are a definite set of rules.

I think we’ve both probably exhausted most of those type systems. None of them work in the long term, although you learn quite a lot in trying them out.

This little diversion might run for a few days or maybe a week.

I haven’t given a lot of thought to laying horses in a systematic way based on my ratings method because I don’t like the idea of betting odds on by laying one horse at odds against. My strategy would be to:

1. Lay one horse only if it is odds on, or;

2. Lay more than one so that I’m betting odds against.

Nothing revolutionary there, then.

In the 7.55 at Sandown, my tissue for the fancied horses is:

2/1 Hasaad, 11/2 Killena Boy, Full Victory, 7/1 It’s A Dream, 12/1 The Snatcher, Master Pegasus, Councellor, Lanford,16/1 Pintle, 20/1 Bar.

I would be looking to lay the fav between 2.6 and out to 3.0. and also Langford up to 11.0.

I’d also have a bit on(back) Full Victory and Killena Boy as they are trading above my tissue price.

Difficult game, this laying, isn’t  it? That’s taken me about an hour and just one race.  

Edit: When backing or laying I would aim to win or lose<br>100pts per bet for the purpose of this ‘experiment’.

(Edited by Artemis at 9:32 am on June 7, 2007)

[dave jay]

<br>Newton Abbot<br>2:10 Mickey Pearce .. W 3 / P 1.50<br>2:40 Presentandcorrect .. W 1.8 / P 1.13<br>3:10 Albarino .. W 2.5 / P 1.37<br>3:45 Hopeful Purchase .. W 1.5 / P 1.09<br>4:15 Armariver .. W 2.0 / P 1.22<br>4:45 Check Up .. W 2.9 / P 1.60

Sandown<br>6:20 Shamrock Lady .. W 3.8 / P 1.7<br>6:50 Holbeck Ghyll .. W 1.6 / 1.3<br>7:25 Ragheed .. W 3.8 / P 1.67<br>7:55 Hassaad .. W 2.2 / P 1.4<br>8:30 Purple Emperor .. W 2.3 / P 1.35<br>9:00 Wovoka .. W 5.8 / P 2.2

I’ve re-done these races and added in a place price. So all of the prices are what I think are fair, based on my own ratings.

This is all pretty new to me, so I don’t know if it’s going to be any good. I’m going to say that any price below the prices

below are a lay and any price above is a bet, just to see if they are accurate or not. So each selection is either a back or a

lay and then the results will be 0 for a wrong un and 1 for a good un, because I’ve got a 50/50 chance of getting these right or

wrong.

I’ll do the real prices at lunchtime so the SP results may differ from the what I post up, but at least we will know what price

you could have actually got, rather than aftertiming the result.

These prices might be a bit short. I’m still working on the calculation behind them.

I have to agree Artemis, it is difficult and the idea of a straight laying system is a bit daft really, but it does make for quite a difficult puzzle to solve. I think you would have to lay more than 1 in a race if you were laying odds bigger than 2.0 because your strike rate would need to be up near 85% to make a profit. I’m taking a bit of a different approach to you by looking at creating an odds line that is based around a fair price for the favourite and then taking it from there.

.. we were discussing on the main forum how to create a place price, so I have been having a go at that this week, that’s were the place prices come from. If I was to lay these prices, I would probably start of on the place market .. you won’t win much but you won’t lose much either.

For the first part of this exercise I am going to see how many lays are successful from the horses I think should be laid and how many backs are successful from the horses that I think are value, and take it from there.

Dave

[dave jay]

Hamilton<br>2:30 Lady Benjamin .. W 2.1 / P 1.36<br>2:30 Spirit Divine .. W 2.6 / P 1.40<br>3:00 Riverside Dancer .. W 2.9 / P1.48<br>3:35 Networker .. W 3.1 / P 1.53<br>4:05 Lucidity .. W 3.5 / P 1.6<br>4:35 Walnut Grove .. W 5.8 / P 1.85<br>5:05 Magic Moth .. W 4.1 / P 1.73

Haydock<br>2:20 Drumalee Lass .. W 2.7 / P 1.62<br>2:50 Galipette .. W 2 / P 1.22<br>3:25 Brunelleschi .. W 2.3 / P ??<br>3:55 Express Wish .. W 2.7 / P 1.45<br>4:25 Soldiers Tale .. W 2.3 / P 1.29<br>4:55 Khun John .. W 3.3 / P 1.58

.. a few more .. :biggrin:

[Andrew Hughes]

Blimey Dave, that’s a fair few races you’ve got through!

Just back from the dentist and off to work in a few minutes, so may not have time to do the Sandown race but I’ll try. Don’t have access to anything gambling related so won’t be able to check any prices if I do.

[dave jay]

No problem mate .. I’m going to get the lunchtime prices for the afternoon races and the evening prices later on.

I want to do a few races for samplin more than anything else .. it’s the only way I know to fine tune your ratings.

[dave jay]

Hamilton<br>2:00 Lady Benjamin .. W 2.1 / P 1.36 BACK<br>2:30 Spirit Divine .. W 2.6 / P 1.40 BACK<br>3:00 Riverside Dancer .. W 2.9 / P1.48 BACK<br>3:35 Networker .. W 3.1 / P 1.53 LAY<br>4:05 Silent Lucidity .. W 3.5 / P 1.6 BACK<br>4:35 Walnut Grove .. W 5.8 / P 1.85 BACK<br>5:05 Magic Moth .. W 4.1 / P 1.73 BACK

Haydock<br>2:20 Drumalee Lass .. W 2.7 / P 1.62 BACK<br>2:50 Galipette .. W 2.0  / P 1.22 BACK<br>3:25 Brunelleschi .. W 2.3 / P ?? BACK<br>3:55 Express Wish .. W 2.7 / P 1.45 LAY<br>4:25 Soldiers Tale .. W 2.3 / P 1.29 LAY<br>4:55 Khun John .. W 3.3 / P 1.58 SAME

Newton Abbot<br>2:10 Mickey Pearce .. W 3 / P 1.50 BACK<br>2:40 Presentandcorrect .. W 1.8 / P 1.13 BACK<br>3:10 Albarino .. W 2.5 / P 1.37 BACK<br>3:45 Hopeful Purchase .. W 1.5 / P 1.09 BACK<br>4:15 Armariver .. W 2.0 / P 1.22 LAY<br>4:45 Check Up .. W 2.9 / P 1.60 BACK

So, the lays are <br>3:35 Networker .. W 3.1 / P 1.53 LAY (2.7 / 1.46)<br>3:55 Express Wish .. W 2.7 / P 1.45 LAY (2.32 / 1.38) <br>4:25 Soldiers Tale .. W 2.3 / P 1.29 LAY (2.04 / 1.35)<br>4:15 Armariver .. W 2.0 / P 1.22 LAY (1.9 / 1.19)<br>.. watch all these go and win !!

I’m a bit surpised that the prices are as close as they are, although there is only one that is the SAME all of the rest are only marginally different.

I do the night racing later on, when there’s a bit of liquidity.

[Andrew Hughes]

Tried to use my new rating system to draw up a tissue and a back/lay price for all of the horses. Ended up with an 8-1 favourite! Slight suspicion I may be underestimating Hassad’s chances. Don’t trust my ratings enough yet to be considering laying at big odds so they are of little use for this one. I’ll post them up on the other thread anyway.

Watching your ratings with interest.

[dave jay]

If you want any pointers with the way to go mate .. just ask, not me though .. <br>

So, the lays are<br>3:35 Networker .. W 3.1 / P 1.53 LAY (2.7 / 1.46) WON<br>3:55 Express Wish .. W 2.7 / P 1.45 LAY (2.32 / 1.38) WON<br>4:25 Soldiers Tale .. W 2.3 / P 1.29 LAY (2.04 / 1.35) WON<br>4:15 Armariver .. W 2.0 / P 1.22 LAY (1.9 / 1.19) Placed<br>.. watch all these go and win !!

<br>.. what a disaster, if I back another winner I’ll scream .. <br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

[Andrew Hughes]

To be fair, Dave, you’ve knocked up a lot of selections in a short space of time. The overall results should give an idea of what needs tinkering with

[dave jay]

I’m going to put up the full results tomorrow .. they are at work.

What I want to do is create a calculation about the favourite and then bounce my forecast price against the BF price. I think quite a few of the bets won as well, so who knows, I’ll be rich yet.

[Andrew Hughes]

Do you just isolate the favourite’s ability or take into account the number of runners/type of race?

[Author]

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