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Lay betting

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  • #12607
    naseby
    Member
    • Total Posts 22

    Anyone think anything of this, like betting on ‘losing’ horses – I’m new to betting, so if you back losing horses, isn’t that easy, or are you meant to bet a selection etc., like an accumulator to get anywhere? What does anyone think of Ian Burrows’ service, if you know of it? Thanks everyone![/b:1sp2oeu5][/i:1sp2oeu5][/color:1sp2oeu5]

    #270762
    gamble
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4355

    Get a long necked filly
    with difficult pace
    and lay it till
    your blue in the face :mrgreen:

    Don’t touch accumulators
    they gang up against you
    and you’ll lose your wedge

    #270763
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    One way of making your betting pay is to lay one horse only in each race but it takes a lot of your time up. Start with say 2000 pounds and never lay a horse for more than 20% of your pot. That way you will get past the bad periods without losing everything. If you lay 3 or 4 horses on the trot at average odds of say 16/1 and they all win that takes some doing…you would have to be the unluckiest person on the planet.

    To do something like this you have to be prpeared to lay 12/1 (Industry) shots at 20/1 as Betfair prices tend to be much longer and probably more realistic on horses with apparently no chance.

    I did this for a while and it does pay but you have to be there or have a very healthy account to back up your bets. I grabbed a section of bets off an old spreadsheet and on the first day my total liability would have been 4,032 quid had they all won but on day 2 it would have beeen over 13,000 quid. So you would need that amount in your account if you were puting the bets on and going to work for example

    After 3 days there’s about a grand profit which is the equivilant of puting 2k on one horse at 1/2 which most punters would be happier to do and get it over with.

    The big drawback is time if you want it to make it really worth your while. On the example below there are over 70 bets in 3 days and an average win bet of something like 55 quid.

    BUT! When you lay one that wins and you will, you need about 10 to lose to get that money back. You could find yourself working for 2 days sometimes for 10 quid but unless you are very dumb, very unlucky or both you should make a good profit at the end of the day, the odds are very much in your favour, if you have good knowledge of racing. Doesn’t take a genius to work out when some trainer’s horses aren’t busy.

    As far as IB Service or paying for any other service or system forget it. Guys on here know as much and more as they do and charge nothing to help you.

    If you visit lays and plays section there are many different ways of betting explained that you can try until you find one that fits your needs.

    What’s most importatnt is you don’t go in head down.

    My advice if you want to lay horses like the example below is do not bet for at least 2 weeks. Make up a spread sheet and run a trial first. If you find you have a knack for it then do it for real.

    Don’t try laying horses that look like they will lose because you think somehing else looks a sure fire winner. You would be just as well backing to win if you find yourself thinking like that….. back the ones you think couldn’t win if everything else stopped dead or you will lose your wad in no time………betting small and often at long odds on the biggest monkey you can find is the name of the game…Occasionally you might have 15 quid on 2 33/1 shots because there’s only 5 or 6 runners and 4 all look like they could win…….Better winning lots of 15 quids than trying to win 115 quid in one go. Keep the odds in your favour and it will work get greedy or take too many chances and you will lose.
    Day1 Meeting Result
    Cheery Cat Yarmouth 12.5 36 450 Lost 2,286
    San Sebastian Beverely 12.5 35 438 Lost 2,321
    Crukadyke Yarmouth 4.5 100 450 Lost 2,421
    Drift and Dream Sandown 5.3 80 424 Lost 2,501
    Mercers Row Beverely 7.2 65 468 Lost 2,566
    Readymade Yarmouth 6.8 75 510 Lost 2,641
    Henry San Sandown 11 50 550 Lost 2,691
    Captain Scooby Beverely 8 65 520 Lost 2,756
    Hidden Door Yarmouth 8.2 60 492 Lost 2,816
    Day 2 2,816
    Alkhataaf Newbury 4.9 100 490 Lost 2,916
    George Benjamin Ayr 13 30 390 Lost 2,946
    George Benjamin Ayr 11.5 20 230 Lost 2,966
    Sophie’s Beau Newmarket 6.2 80 496 Lost 3,046
    Silver Rock Newbury 14 40 560 Won 2,486
    Original Dancer Ayr 5.8 80 464 Lost 2,566
    Miss Miracle Newmarket 6.2 90 558 Lost 2,656
    Halicanarsis Newbury 14.5 35 508 Lost 2,691
    City Leader Newbury 18.5 30 555 Lost 2,721
    King of Rome Newbury 22 25 550 Lost 2,746
    Bluei Ayr 6.4 90 576 Lost 2,836
    Arabian Pride Ayr 14.5 40 580 Lost 2,876
    Universal Circus Ayr 14 40 560 Lost 2,916
    Shayeg Newmarket 7.8 60 468 Lost 2,976
    puff Newbury 7.8 70 546 Lost 3,046
    Lowdown Ayr 10.5 35 368 Lost 3,081
    Ashram Newmarket 9.2 35 322 Won 2,759
    Sillah Ayr 7.8 80 624 Lost 2,839
    Essexbridge Newmarket 9.6 50 480 Lost 2,889
    Sassanian Newmarket 19 30 570 Lost 2,919
    Humble Opinion Newbury 9 60 540 Lost 2,949
    La Zamora Ayr 16 30 480 Lost 2,979
    Kahfre Newmarket 15 35 525 Lost 3,014
    Benfleet Boy Newbury 7.2 60 432 Lost 3,074
    Benfleet Boy Newbury 7 20 140 Lost 3,094
    Digger Derek Ayr 7.8 60 468 Lost 3,154
    Rose Alba Newmarket 8.6 70 602 Lost 3,224
    Summer Soul Ayr 15 40 600 Lost 3,264
    Day3 3,264
    Colepeper Catterick 1.25 4.2 130 546 Won 2,718
    Aquarian Spirit Ayr 1.35 6.6 80 528 Lost 2,798
    Good Gorsoon Newmarket 1.45 8.4 60 504 Won 2,294
    Art Scholar Newbury 1.5 7.2 80 576 Lost 2,374
    Diktalina Catterick 2 8.6 50 430 Lost 2,424
    Quest for Success Ayr 2.05 13.5 40 540 Lost 2,464
    My Gacho Ayr 2.05 27 20 540 Lost 2,484
    Awzaan Newbury 2.2 3.9 140 546 Won 1,938
    Storyland Newmarket 2.25 7.5 75 563 Lost 2,013
    Game Rosanna Catterick 2.3 5.5 75 413 Lost 2,088
    Conniption Ayr 2.35 9.2 40 368 Lost 2,128
    Midnight Martini Ayr 2.35 14 40 560 Lost 2,168
    Janie Johnstone Ayr 2.35 29 15 435 Lost 2,183
    Antinori Newbury 2.5 8.2 60 492 Lost 2,243
    Cil Rialaig Newmarket 3 7.5 25 188 Lost 2,268
    Full Toss Catterick 3.05 7.2 75 540 Lost 2,343
    Novay Esshay Newbury 3.25 5.8 75 435 Lost 2,418
    Odds and Evens Ayr 3.1 8.4 60 504 Lost 2,478
    Mac Gille Eoin Ayr 3.1 17.5 29 508 Lost 2,507
    JJ the Jet Pane Newbury 12 45 540 Lost 2,552
    Takaatuf Catterick 3.35 6.4 80 512 Lost 2,632
    Damika Ayr 3.5 8.6 65 559 Lost 2,697
    Contradanse Newbury 4 13 30 390 Lost 2,727
    Christmas Carol Newbury 4 16 20 320 Lost 2,747
    Yes Maggie Newbury 4 32 20 640 Lost 2,767
    Steel Stockholder Catterick 4.1 7.8 80 624 Lost 2,847
    Dream Lodge Ayr 4.25 5 110 550 Lost 2,957
    Baili Me Ayr 4.25 9 60 540 Lost 3,017
    Viviani Newbury 4.35 13 40 520 Lost 3,057
    Fell Pack Catterick 4.45 7.2 80 576 Lost 3,137
    Barliffy Newmarket 4.5 7.8 80 624 Lost 3,217
    Scuffle Ayr 5.1 7 7 49 Lost 3,224
    Soto catterick 5.2 9.8 50 490 Lost 3,274
    Silver Prelude Newmarket 5.25 11.5 50 575 Lost 3,324

    #270882
    gamble
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4355

    Very able work Fist
    and a nice win ratio.
    It can be very disheartening
    when a loser comes along
    so I would put a max up of 15%
    and for a newcomer possibly 10%
    of said bank.

    Hope you selected a
    representative sample
    there boy, and officer
    Dibble is impressed :mrgreen:

    #270996
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Thank you kind Sir. That sample is a little bit less than what I would average.

    You’re right about the liability although I did it after I got x amount in front but a newcomer should start lower.

    It is mega important you keep it in check and it has to be realistic.

    If your pot grows to 20,000 quid then you are approaching the danger zone.

    You must be in a position to get matched. There are times when the rag you want to lay is say 5.0 and you might get 500 quid matched but all bets should have the same liability. In other words can you get 200 quid matched at 11 or 100 quid at 20 in the next race?

    I would recommend every 7 days you work out your average stakes and average odds.

    What can happen very easily as your pot grows, your liability per race grows with it and you will be tempted to start taking chances you didn’t take in the early days just to get on. You will start losing and you will find the 8.5 average odds you were laying before are now 6.8 or something.

    The thought of having only 40 quid on at 33/1 no longer appeals to you despite the fact all those 20 quids you had on at 33/1 played a big part of what got you up there in the first place.

    Just keep reducing that liability as the most important thing is you can get matched right across the board.

    It’s an easy way to make betting pay but very tiring and time consuming. As Gamble says what a sickener when that 50/1 shot romps home and you just lost 2k but that’s no different than laying one at 2 and losing 2k.

    Your liabilty is your liability just forget it and remember the odds are stacked in your favour or you wouldn’t have a 2k liability in the first place.

    Golden rulStick to finding those rags it doesn’t matter if they are 50/1 if your pot has grown and you only earned 30 quid…….it was for old rope.

    I had a great run doing this, took the money and ran. I found it taking up too much of my time and at my age sitting at a computer for 4 hours solid racking my brain knackers me.

    I am now doing my Mark II version and reduced my time by 75-80% but I’m keeping that one to myself for now. :P

    #271119
    gamble
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4355

    Dibble back here :D

    Time spent in the alley
    is highly significant
    and who wants
    to sit gluey eyed at
    a computer all day
    getting a wooden *rse.

    I too have forsaken
    gun accuracy
    for a bit more R&R.
    A stroll on the cliff
    a bracing wind
    a cup of cha
    thats life on the beat
    the daytime shift
    beats the flies
    on Patong beach
    nostril in,
    then a heavy bag
    to carry me back home
    and me krone

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