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Nice one Drone. I got 1000/60 ew twice at Royal ascot some yrs back prob early 2000’s
Johhny murtagh rode it , was in highclere colours. Won in a canter
Loved those fractions
👍👍
Sage has zero credibility now
Earlier today I had a fascinating exchange with Prof Graham Medley, who chairs SAGE modelling committee. Here's my summary, and thoughts on an illuminating conversation
— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) December 18, 2021
Agree Clive. I have long suspected Sage only worked on absolute worst case scenarios but it was good to have it confirmed.
So, what should they do? If the WHO had worked on a worst case scenario when they saw what was happening in Wuhan we wouldn’t have a pandemic now.
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- Total Posts 2553
Some people on here need to have a reality check.
They will never admit to being wrong, though, nobody ever does
“So, what should they do?”
Present the government with a range of scenarios, including one based on a best case – which is just as likely and plausible as an extreme worst case, probably more so.
That would be the responsible thing to do but it looks like Sage prefers being part of a doom loop death cult.
When you draw up a risk assessment at work, you are mindful of possible but unlikely risks but it does not mean you make all your business decisions based on that risk certainly happening.
“Present the government with a range of scenarios, including one based on a best case – which is just as likely and plausible as an extreme worst case, probably more so.”
The problem is that we have a Prime Minister with the mindset- and intellect- of an enthusiastic puppy. If any advisers presented the possibility of all carrying on as normal, Bozo would seize that particular stick and run with it. The consequences would be serious.
Sadly, you can’t just pretend that everything is all right.
Part of the problem is the advisers are talking to politicians like Johnson who have degrees in arts subjects and who are not used to critically analysing numbers and data.
People can say what they like about Mrs Thatcher – I am not a complete fan of her myself – but she was very unusual amongst senior British politicians in possessing a science degree. I find it difficult to believe she would have swallowed the worst case scenario modelling uncritically.
Professor Ferguson, specialist in hopelessly inaccurate predictions, has suggested up to 6,000 people a day could die from the omicron strain. This is a classic case of headline grabbing, worst case scenario. There is nowhere in the world suffering from such mortality from Covid, including India which has a population 20 times greater than the UK with many living in poverty.
The same thing happened last year. Whitty and Vallance claimed on 31st October that 4,000 people a day would die unless the country was locked down immediately. This was clearly done to scare the government into a lockdown. The claim was demolished within minutes of the press conference being over by people who know how to analyse data properly. Evidently no one in the Cabinet does, especially the individual who is Prime Minister and supposed to make the final decisions and provide leadership.
The rumoured two week “circuit breaker” (lockdown with a fancy name) planned for after Christmas will be as futile as its predecessors, achieving nothing other than further damage to society and the economy. But the government seems stuck in a doom loop, convinced its policy works despite a plethora of academic studies showing otherwise.
Broadly agree with much of what you’ve written, Cork, but disagree with the following:
“There is nowhere in the world suffering from such mortality from Covid, including India which has a population 20 times greater than the UK with many living in poverty.”
Official statistics in places like India are known to be underestimates. There is absolutely no way there aren’t many people dying of Covid in remote areas and not being added to the official figures.
Fair enough, I accept the collation of death figures is fraught with difficulty. However, I have little doubt that Ferguson’s claim of 6,000 a day in this country is not realistic.
To be fair to Ferguson, he probably has described it as an absolute worse case scenario – but the media seize on such figures, the politicians do not question them and eventually they come to be understood as fact.
So, the WHO were right to continue to allow people to fly in and out of China at the start of the pandemic because the decision was based on a best case scenario which was that it wouldn’t spread around the world?
What that prof’ said wasn’t surprising tbh.
Since Omicron became known experts have been saying we don’t know just how bad it will be. ie Severity of Omicron (the percentage of patients in hospital and dying) PROBABLY won’t be as bad as Delta but the fact it is more transmissible may still make it more dangerous (ie the actual number in hospitals and dying MAY be more than Delta). Because there’ll be potentially be more of it around.
Therefore, it is obvious the best case scenario will be fair (if the severity is far less than Delta)… And the worst case scenario pretty bad (if transmitability is really bad and severity is closer to Delta than expected).
Point I think the Prof’ was making in that piece was that it does not really matter how “fair” it MIGHT be. We have to prepare for if not THE worst case scenario then NEAR the worst case. What those who don’t like these restrictions can’t seem to grasp is it’s never been about what the most likely outcome might be; we’ve got to prepare for a bad outcome otherwise that bad outcome will be even worse.
Government certainly can NOT say “Oh it might not be too bad so let’s not prepare”. They wouldn’t be doing their job if that were the case.
What they HAVE said is that as soon as enough is known about the Omicron variant, if the hospitals are not going to be over-run – remembering the more that have to self isolate the more doctors and nurses have to as well… It MIGHT be possible to reduce or even scrap these restrictive measures earlier. Which seems reasonable to me.
Value Is EverythingTotal nonsense
Sage cover well andtruly blown. They give the worse possible prediction
Nobody believes this **** anymore
Only you
I am done with this now
Be scared all you like. Its time to get on with loving
Cheers
Loving and living
Two important things
Get the boat Davies. Rumbollock. Gt. and all other denial folks
Gamble get the freakin boat. And STAY INDOORS
Moe. The spectator is fiercely independent and its views and interviews are factual
Its time to stop watching the media who want you locked up this year and every year
Time to break the chain and say NO MORE
‘The spectator is fiercely independent and its views and interviews are factual’
Like any such publication, it tells its readers what they want to hear. Sometimes that will be factual, sometimes not.
Dickie
Stay on topic
Has any of sage doomsday modelling been correct
No
Has the inner cabinet been responsible for repeated lckdownsYes. Gove. Hancock johnson and sunak decide. They tell the cabinet who cannot kick back
Now its javid and gove plus borris and sunak. Except the back benchers are pushing back
Gove and Javid are pro lock
Sunak on fence
Johnson clueless. He has no support staff. No cummings. Nobody to whisper this is madness
Hence our lives are being ruined by these gobbies.
Topic Dickie??
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