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It seems fairly regularly that we hear about 2YO horses having more scope for the future because they are late foals. The general consensus that over the course of the winter they can mature and catch up, or even pass those born a few months earlier than them.
I have always taken the personal view that they are unlikely to catch up in time for the Guineas and given that the Derby is usually only five weeks later it seemed insufficient time to make much difference for the longer distance Classic.
I decided to check the foaling dates of the the last generation (ie 25 years) of the 2000 Guineas winners.
The data showed that 23 of the last 25 2000 Guineas winners were foaled in Jan, Feb or March. Only two were foaled in April and none in May. The two April foals were Sea The Stars and Dawn Approach.
I decided to look back at the Derby from Wings Of Eagles, right to Shahrastani, who just held off Dancing Brave in the controversial 1986 race, where Greville Starkey came from the clouds to narrowly fail on the great Guy Harwood trained Guineas, Eclipse and Arc De Triomphe winner.
These are the figures:-
2017 Wings Of Eagles Foaled In March
2016 Harzand Foaled In March
2015 Golden Horn Foaled In March
2014 Australia Foaled In April
2013 Ruler Of The World Foaled In March
2012 Camelot Foaled In March
2011 Pour Moi Foaled In January
2010 Workforce Foaled In March
2009 Sea The Stars Foaled In April
2008 New Approach Foaled In February
2007 Authorized Foaled In February
2006 Sir Percy Foaled In January
2005 Motivator Foaled In February
2004 North Light Foaled In March
2003 Kris Kin Foaled In March
2002 High Chaparral Foaled In March
2001 Galileo Foaled In March
2000 Sinndar Foaled In Fabruary
1999 Oath Foaled In April
1998 High Rise Foaled In May
1997 Benny The Dip Foaled In March
1996 Shaamit Foaled In February
1995 Lammtarra Foaled In February
1994 Erhaab Foaled In May
1993 Commander In Chief Foaled In May
1992 Dr Devious Foaled In March
1991 Generous Foaled In February
1990 Quest For Fame Foaled In February
1989 Nashwan Foaled In March
1988 Kahyasi Foaled In April
1987 Reference Point Foaled In February
1986 Shahrastani Foaled In MarchThe most common months of Foaling for Derby winners breaks down as Follows:-
March 14 winners
February 8 winners
April 4 winners
May 3 winners
Jan 2 WinnersIt seems clear that the Feb/March foaling period dominates, with 22 of the 31 Derby Winners. It also seems clear that the really late (May) foals are less represented with less than 10% as a strike rate.
Perhaps It is surprising that only two February Foals have won in the period covered and that is possibly a concern as well, given that clear favourite for the next Derby, Saxon Warrior, is a January foal.
If late foals do catch up, it seems clear that it must be happening later than June, for colts at least.
What do others feel about late foals in general?
I may repeat the exercise for the fillies Classics to compare results.
Perhaps the stats could help guide towards some contenders, and away from others, in the Classics this coming year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Typically:
January 5%
February 15%
March 25%
April 30%
May 20%
June 5%So, January foals are performing in line with 5% of crop, February and March foals doing better than expected, May and June foals doing worse than expected.
Typically:
January 5%
February 15%
March 25%
April 30%
May 20%
June 5%So, January foals are performing in line with 5% of crop, February and March foals doing better than expected, May and June foals doing worse than expected.
Most major human sports stars are apparently born in Jan/Feb, not because those months have any innate advantage, but because they are oldest in their age-group, so get most of the success/attention when they are young. I wonder how long it takes for this advantage in horse racing to lapse?
Typically:
January 5%
February 15%
March 25%
April 30%
May 20%
June 5%So, January foals are performing in line with 5% of crop, February and March foals doing better than expected, May and June foals doing worse than expected.
Thanks very much for the figures, I had no idea what they were but suspected that nature would mean not many being born in the harsh winter months.
I’ve had the perception for a while that late foals catching up may be a myth but it’s quite difficult to prove. I generally avoid late foals for ante-post purposes in the Guineas’ and Epsom Classics. No doubt a May 31st foal wins this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Late foals catching up over winter, fact or myth?
Neither, Steve.
To be honest, I’ve never heard any so called expert say “late foals catch up over winter”. Have heard it said about some particular individual late foals, but that’s an entirely different thing.
Horses mature at different rates, when they’re foaled is only one aspect. Also depending on their trainer/how the horse is trained, size, muscle growth, distance raced, number of runs and temperament.
Therefore, some do but most late foals don’t “catch up over winter”, or not in sufficient amounts to entirely catch up… And some earlier foals will improve again too – for the reasons given above.
Horses need to make normal physical progress (I’ve heard it said 7 lbs) just to maintain their rating from two to three. There are some exposed two year olds that will probably only make that improvement to maintain their rating… Others will improve by more and some much more than that “7 lbs” due to ALL the aspects already mentioned above.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think breeders aim for January foals because of the danger of having one born on 31st December!Have you got a break down of birth dates of 2,000, 1,000 gns winners month by month, because I always back early foals for both of those races.
I don’t think breeders aim for January foals because of the danger of having one born on 31st December
I feel sure there must have been occurences of December foals. Anyone know of any that made it to the racecourse, and if so how they got on? Flat only, as early foaling is of little consequence in NH, other than in Juvenile Hurdles
With the breeding mare’s environment manipulated by lighting, not to mention hormonal drugs, the timing of her foal’s birth can pretty much be artificially determined.
In the event of a potential cock-up, I guess a stable lad is tasked with shoving the foal back inside until the clock strikes for the New Year.
Those are the ones that go down as 1st Jan Drone!
Indeed
Do you happen to know if there’s a strict registration procedure for foaling dates and prior to that the date the mare is deemed to be in-foal, and how these are policed?
Given that racing has its fair share of translucent-to-opaque practices, I have this perhaps paranoid idea that some clever-dicks in the breeding fraternity/sorority have on occasions deliberately bred very early foals, say born in the autumn and registered them as born the following year
Exaggerating to emphasise my point: a 2yo registered as being born in May, actually foaled in November – ‘by gum he looks well forward’ says some wiseacre paddock-side on the not-so-young-one’s debut
Have any of you read Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell? Not usually one for pop-science books but his research seemed watertight.
We’re talking humans rather than horses here, but he made quite a convincing case for date of birth being a huge factor in academic and athletic success. It’s all because of the English schools system having a September cut-off point. The September-January kids start with a major developmental advantage and – owing to initial success, confidence boosts, physical superiority etc – they tend to stay ahead of their younger peers all the way through the system. You don’t see anything like an even date-month spread in the population of OxBridge students or our elite sportspeople.
The correlation is quite startling really. I don’t have the book to hand right now but I’ll reel off a few of Gladwell’s stats later on.
I can readily believe that the same sort of thing applies for racehorses, especially since the notional birthday of Jan 1st is THE pivot point in our breeding industry.
I don’t think I framed the original question clearly enough.
The point is that I am relying solely on date of birth and also only talking about the first two classics of the season and how the date of foaling may affect a horse’s chance in the Guineas’ and Derby Oaks.
By the nature of my query it is a yes or no question. Either horses who have ground to make up on their contemporaries at the end of their 2YO season can make it up in time to be competitive, or, in general, the fact is that they can’t.
I am primarily looking to see if I can use foaling dates to eliminate potential ante-post Classic bets on horses during their 2yo seasons.
I am by no means expert on the breeding side, so I thought I would ask people who are better equipped than me for their opinions.
Thanks for all the input so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wasn’t there something on the betfair forum sometime ago, about how Air Force Blue couldn’t possibly win the guineas as he was a late foal? Seemed a bit odd to me given that he had already done well as a two year old… however it proved right in the end.
Wasn’t there something on the betfair forum sometime ago, about how Air Force Blue couldn’t possibly win the guineas as he was a late foal? Seemed a bit odd to me given that he had already done well as a two year old… however it proved right in the end.
Air Force Blue was a May 2nd foal.
His problem turned out to be that he was exceptionally precocious, particularly for a late foal.
I recall Michael Tabor saying, just after Minding won the Fillies Mile, that she was not as special as Air Force Blue. His confidence was justified but the fact is that horses rated over 120 at 2YO are hamstrung by the maximum rating possible at three years old. To be rated 130 is excellent and many will not reach it, so in all likelihood it only leaves a 122 rated 2YO with the prospect of about 5-7 lbs improvement the following year
Should they have given Air Force Blue five runs as a 2YO, knowing he was a relatively young horse?
Interestingly, Dawn Approach was technically 1 year old when he won his first race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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