Highland National 2010

[Gerald]

Just want this handy for reference, ta.

The computer froze just as I was about to post, so this time I am going to post after each segment, and then edit. So hang on chaps – I should be finished in about 20 minutes.

This won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, as it is just a number-crunching exercise.

(Why should I bother about recent form, when it is heavily factored into the price?)

Highland National 3m7f

This may have existed before 2003, under a slightly different name, but I couldn’t be bothered to check.

PREVIOUS WINNERS

2008 Laertes Theatrical Charmer 11.1 [/color:31yhk25s] Shardari 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 23.6
2007 Back In Business Bob Back 12.3 [/color:31yhk25s] Be My Native 11.7 [/color:31yhk25s] 24
2006 Noble Buck Buckskin 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] Neshad 5.9 [/color:31yhk25s] 18.4
2005 Sir Frosty Arctic Lord 11.7 [/color:31yhk25s] Deep Run 13.4 [/color:31yhk25s] 25.1
2004 Behavingbadly Lord Americo 16 [/color:31yhk25s] Strong Gale 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 28.5
2003 Rockcliffe Gossip Phardante 12.7 [/color:31yhk25s] Le Bavard 16.4 [/color:31yhk25s] 29.1

2008 Laertes 7 11-5 Won 25f
2007 Back In Business 7 10-5 Won 26f
2006 Noble Buck 10 10-4 Won 16f. Had won 4 P-T-P.
2005 Sir Frosty 12 10-13 Won 33f
2004 Behavingbadly 9 10-12 Won 25f
2003 Rockcliffe Gossip 11 10-12 Won 25f

This is the relevant information for the horses that finished SECOND.

2008 Lydon House – [/color:31yhk25s] 12.4 [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! P-T-P
2007 Rosarian 11.9 [/color:31yhk25s] 11 [/color:31yhk25s] 22.9 (27f Nov Hdle)
2006 Primitive Way 12 [/color:31yhk25s] – [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! 25f
2005 Gimme Shelter 13 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.8 [/color:31yhk25s] 25.8 32f
2004 Red Rampage 14 [/color:31yhk25s] 8.7 [/color:31yhk25s] 22.7 26f
2003 Gimme Shelter 13 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.8 [/color:31yhk25s] 25.8 32f

I also did a break down by weight CARRIED, a la Gingertipster. (I decided not to add back in the CJ and Amateur Rider allowances etc, as I would inevitably make a mistake somewhere.)

11-7+ [/color:31yhk25s] 11-0 – 11-6 [/color:31yhk25s] 10-7 – 10-13 [/color:31yhk25s] 10-1 – 10-6 [/color:31yhk25s] 10-0 or less [/color:31yhk25s] Year Going Runners
4 [/color:31yhk25s] 6 [/color:31yhk25s] 5 [/color:31yhk25s] 3 [/color:31yhk25s] 0 [/color:31yhk25s] 2008 Gd to Sft 18
3rd [/color:31yhk25s] 1st & 2nd [/color:31yhk25s] 4th [/color:31yhk25s]
7 [/color:31yhk25s] 5 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 4 [/color:31yhk25s] 0 [/color:31yhk25s] 2007 Gd to Sft 18
2nd & 4th [/color:31yhk25s] 1st & 3rd [/color:31yhk25s]
2 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 4 [/color:31yhk25s] 2006 Gd to Fm 12
3rd [/color:31yhk25s] 1st & 2nd [/color:31yhk25s] 4th [/color:31yhk25s]
5 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 3 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 3 [/color:31yhk25s] 2005 Gd to Sft 15
3rd [/color:31yhk25s] 1st [/color:31yhk25s] 4th [/color:31yhk25s] 2nd [/color:31yhk25s]
3 [/color:31yhk25s] 4 [/color:31yhk25s] 7 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 0 [/color:31yhk25s] 2004 Gd to Sft 16
3rd [/color:31yhk25s] 2nd [/color:31yhk25s] 1st & 4th [/color:31yhk25s]
4 [/color:31yhk25s] 2 [/color:31yhk25s] 4 [/color:31yhk25s] 3 [/color:31yhk25s] 3 [/color:31yhk25s] 2003 Good 16
4th [/color:31yhk25s] 1st & 2nd [/color:31yhk25s] 3rd [/color:31yhk25s]

Here is the FIELD

Florida Dream 16 [/color:31yhk25s] – [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! 26f
Laertes 11.1 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 23.6 31f
The Gangerman 9.2 [/color:31yhk25s] 11.7 [/color:31yhk25s] 20.9 25f
Ballyvoge 14.3 [/color:31yhk25s] 14 [/color:31yhk25s] 28.3 P-T-P
Natoumba – [/color:31yhk25s] – [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! 26f
Twilight Eagle – [/color:31yhk25s] 15.2 [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! Maiden
Samsbro 11.4 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 23.9 Maiden
The Luder 12.9 [/color:31yhk25s] 9.7 [/color:31yhk25s] 22.6 25f
Davina’s Boy – [/color:31yhk25s] 9.2 [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! 25f
Panama At Once 11.6 [/color:31yhk25s] 9.6 [/color:31yhk25s] 21.2 25f
Ballygalley Bob 12.3 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 24.8 29f
Airhill Lady 11.8 [/color:31yhk25s] 11.6 [/color:31yhk25s] 23.4 Maiden
Millanymare 13 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 25.5 24f
Scarvagh Diamond 14.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 12.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 27 23f
Eight Fifty Six 7.8 [/color:31yhk25s] 11.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 19.3 25f
Finzi 14.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 10.1 [/color:31yhk25s] 24.6 30f
Another Rum 14.5 [/color:31yhk25s] – [/color:31yhk25s] #VALUE! 33 (Novice)
Kells Castle 8.5 [/color:31yhk25s] 7 [/color:31yhk25s] 15.5 21f

My aim is to find the first two, and put them in a Forecast.

First of all, I am going to controversially chuck out Florida Dream, The Gangerman, Ballyvoge and Natoumba, for carrying too much weight. Laertes stays, because there is no way I am chucking out last year’s winner, and also he has 5lb Jockey Allowance, which brings his weight down.

Next, I am eliminating the following for not having won a Chase of 25f+ – Twilight Eagle, Samsbro, Airhill Lady, Millanymare, Scarvagh Diamond and Kells Castle.

Eight Fifty Six goes, because of his Sire, General Monash.

Finally, I am chucking out anything with a Racing Post Damsire Flat Stamina Index of less than 11.0 furlongs. Viz, The Luder, Davina’s Boy, Panama At Once and Finzi.

The remaining horses are

Laertes
Ballygalley Bob
Another Rum

6 x £5 combination Forecast
6 x £1 combination Tricast.

They might not come up, but at least they are sensible selections.

The End.

[Gerald]

Looks like the six left are

Star Player
Royal Mackintosh
Noble Bily
Lavenoak Lad
Simply Smashing
Omix D’Or

, which is a bit too many.

[Gerald]

5 of those 6 have won one of their last three races. The exception is Star Player, PPP , who can be chucked because he is by Accordion.

That’s got it down to 5. 20 forecasts and 60 tricasts. Still a bit too much.

bedtime.

[rich1985]

Easy; Petite Margot for me where Twiston-Davies goes through the card Certainly has some very interesting runners.

[Venture to Cognac]

Rich, I agree, Petit Margot for me, and I think his other runners today are well worth a look!

[Gerald]

On my mini-trends, I chucked Petite Margot because she’s carrying 11st7 or more, and doesn’t have a jockey’s allowance to bring it down. She’s okay on the other two measures. Live by the sword, and die by the sword.

Good luck, chaps.

[Big Bucks]

well done Gerald

[Gerald]

Looks like the six left are

Star Player
Royal Mackintosh
Noble Bily
Lavenoak Lad
Simply Smashing
Omix D’Or

, which is a bit too many.

Oh well, got the winner, but not the forecast or tricast. I’ll try and put more than 10 minutes into the race next year.

[Gerald]

The ones chucked this year because they hadn’t won a chase further than 24 furlongs were Lydon House, Bear Witness, Shrewd Investor, Blazing Diva, Sammy Spiderman and Solway Bay, and they came

4th, PU, PU, Fell, PU, PU

The ones chucked because they were carrying more than 11st7 came
PU, 5th, PU, 2nd

so that didn’t turn out too well.

The 5 qualifiers (after Star Player was chucked by being by Accordion) came

PU, UR, 6th, PU 1st

Going just by this year’s result, looks like I fluked the win.

[Author]

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