Ladbrokes – "Next Labour Party Leader" market

[john2345]

Hi, I realise that "Politicas" isn’t (well, strictly speaking!) a "Sport" but I wonder if anyone else has an issue similar to what follows….

In brief:

I placed a bet on the "Next Labour Leader" market with Ladbrokes on 8th June. Unfortuinately I don’t have a hard-copy of the bet as my printer wasn’t working at the time. However, I am 99.9% sure that there was no "End date" for the market specified when I placed the wager.

Now Ladbrokes are telling me that the market closes on Dec 30, 2009 – but as I said above, I was quite careful in checking this at the time I placed the bet, and saw no mention of any closing date.

Question…has anyone else placed a bet on this market in a similar time frame in the belief that the market wasn’t closing on Dec 30, 09? Or…is there some way I can check what the terms of the market were on the day I placed the bet (aside from asking Ladbrokes).

I see that Mike Smithson – according to his blog on Political Betting site – reckons he has an "at anytime" wager on this market placed July 18th.

J

[insomniac]

Hi John.
I can’t answer your question but someone on:-

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/

might be able to. You don’t have to register or do anything convoluted. Just ask nicely for help on a similar thread (I believe there has been one recently on Mandelson’s odds re. party leadership.
Hope you find the answer.

[john2345]

Thanks for that response. I had an exchange of mails with Mike Smithson but no dramatic breakthrough yet! (Will keep trying.

J

[davidbrady]

Do you remember an option for "no change" or "Gordon Brown" in the list of options

[john2345]

Do you remember an option for "no change" or "Gordon Brown" in the list of options

No, the market was/is purely on naming a successor. Two things can happen I guess….

1: Brown stands down/is kicked out and a successor chosen and annointed. For this option it would be reasonable to have an end-date for the market, but voiding it on Dec 30, 09 is a bit rich as he is rated odds-on to lead the party into the next election, which is also odds-on to be in 2010.. I’m not saying he won’t be gone pre-Dec 09, but the point is that the odds on him being in charge come a 2010 election suggest that a "By Dec 09" Successor Market is meaningless.

2: Brown discovers the secret of eternal life, becomes the voters’ favourite and wins every election till ther world ends. In which case a closing date for the market would be handy so I can recover my stake!

I’d suggest a "By Sep 1 2010" closing date might make more sense.

J

[john2345]

I see that their "London Mayor 2012" book is flagged as closing Dec 31, 2009….so I’m concluding that the dates on this and the "Next Labour Leader" markets are probably shown for no particular reason….odd that "Next Labour Leader" os flagged "Dec 30 2009" and "2012 Mayor" a day later.

Still, I’d like a confirmation from Ladbrokes (have asked, am waiting!) that the bet is open-ended, as I don’t want to hedge it and later find I have a liability with no funds coming in from Lads to cover the hedge!

J

[john2345]

Panic over….Lads confirm that "the system expects to see a date, so we stuck that one in". Now I just have to land the bet….!

J

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