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David, if your not happy with strike rate as a definer of jockey ability, how about Adrian Massey’s approach?!
I’ve cut and pasted from his site http://www.adrianmassey.com, ,I assure you it is not spam as all the info on his site is free, his approach to rating jockeys. :
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It is well known that some jockeys ride a lot more winners than others. That might be because they are better jockeys, but it might be because they are riding better horses or just riding a lot more often than the other jockeys. Some jockeys have many followers, so horses they ride, tend to have SPs which are shorter than they otherwise would be. Some jockeys have few followers so their mounts tend to have SPs which are longer than they otherwise would be. What is important for the backer (or layer) is to know whether a particular jockey performs better or worse than expected according to the SPs of the horses that they ride. For example, does Jockey A tend to perform better or worse than Jockey B on 10-1 shots.
These ratings are an attempt to indicate which jockeys are better or worse than average, taking into account the SPs of the horses that they ride.
The ratings are calculated as follows :
Firstly, by analysing a lot of races, I have calculated the average finishing position of horses at all different values of SP. The finishing positions are expressed in 3 different ways :
* Win Percentage. For example, Horses with a SP of 3-1 on average may win 23% of the time.
* Place Percentage. For example, Horses with a SP of 6-4 on average may be placed 62% of the time.
* Percentage of Other Horses Beaten. For example, in an 11 runner race, the winner has beaten 100% of the other horses, the horse on last place has beaten 0% of the other horses, while the horse in 6th place has beaten 50% of the other horses (5 in front and 5 behind). It may be that horses with a SP of 2-1 beat 78% of the other horses on average while horses at 10-1 beat 37%.
Secondly, the finishing position of each of a particular jockey’s mounts are compared to the average for horses at that SP. Taking an average of these comparisons gives a rating for the jockey. A rating greater than 100 indicates that the jockey tends to finish in a better position than average, while a rating less than 100 indicates that the jockey tends to finish in a worse position. Jockeys with higher ratings should give better value to the backer.
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Very appropriately, Kirsty Milczarek heads the ratings on 158, James Doyle is not far behind on 140 and William Buick has a decent mark on 123.
Oh! and Hayley is on 130.
Colin
Whenever a jockey comes on the scene with an above average strike rate we always seem to get threads like this. KM is nothing special and her all she has proven is she is as good a jockey as about 50 others. In a few weeks time she will be back within the zone of average strike rate.
Good luck to KM who turned down a winter riding trip abroad to make the most of opportunities and establish contacts on the AW.
However give it a couple of months and normality will return.
The top jockeys return to the fray to warm up on the AW prior to the start of the turf season, her riding allowance will have been cut and she will not have the support of a top stable.
Things will be much tougher!They will be Lingfield but she’ll still get the rides – from yards she’s been riding for over the winter and it’s all about building up a relationship with trainers. If they book her and she’s riding winners for them in the winter why wouldn’t they use her in the Summer? There’s not going to be a sudden influx of 50 new jockeys and most of the journeyman jocks have stayed in the UK anyway.
Ruby Walsh has a strike rate of 50% since the turn of the year and his win and place % is 75… Say no more
Ruby Walsh has a strike rate of 50% since the turn of the year and his win and place % is 75… Say no more
Seriously – a ridiculous comparison .
Where is this thread heading?
Maybe, she will have the support of a top stable, Lingfield. I was thinking of buying a virutal horse, but if I had a real one, or trained them, wherever I was in the pecking order, I’d want to have her on my side for a while, and see how it went.
I’m speaking from a position of total ignorance in the matter, of course, but it seems to me that a jockey’s strength would only be a factor in restraining it if it were headstrong.
Seabird
Looking at the ratings, I think said method is completely flawed and a waste of time. James Reveley better than Tony McCoy? LMAO.
I don’t think Adrian is suggesting that, David.
Doesn’t he say that there is more value in following the jocks at the top of the list?
Colin
She is very good, should get her chances, needs to make the most of them, up against it though, would be great for racing in UK if she got ot the top.
They will be Lingfield but she’ll still get the rides – from yards she’s been riding for over the winter and it’s all about building up a relationship with trainers. If they book her and she’s riding winners for them in the winter why wouldn’t they use her in the Summer? There’s not going to be a sudden influx of 50 new jockeys and most of the journeyman jocks have stayed in the UK anyway.
The trainers she has been riding for on the AW in Winter will also find it much tougher once the battalions from the likes of Stoute, Gosden, Hills, and juveniles from Channon and Hannon are unleashed
Yes Mikky
Jockeyship clearly the overriding factor there!!
Does that mean you disagree DJ?
The horse clearly had plenty in hand, but how many times have you seen a jock mess a similar situation up? She sat in the perfect position, brought her mount wide eliminating any chance of getting boxed in, challanged at the right time and won well. No messing about whatsoever.
Absolutely full marks for jockeyship DJ in my opinion. You know and I know that over the course of the next few days there will be a case of a jockey travelling equally as well who will make some sort of mistake. I didn’t see a mistke from Kirsty there, did you?
Mike
They will be Lingfield but she’ll still get the rides – from yards she’s been riding for over the winter and it’s all about building up a relationship with trainers. If they book her and she’s riding winners for them in the winter why wouldn’t they use her in the Summer? There’s not going to be a sudden influx of 50 new jockeys and most of the journeyman jocks have stayed in the UK anyway.
The trainers she has been riding for on the AW in Winter will also find it much tougher once the battalions from the likes of Stoute, Gosden, Hills, and juveniles from Channon and Hannon are unleashed
No doubt but she’ll not have been riding too many 2yos since there’s fewer races over the winter months, there’ll be 3 meetings a day or so on most days. There’s enough races to go round and enough jockeys including Kirsty to take up the rides. She’ll be just fine.
As a side note the previously mentioned Emma-Jayne Wilson won Canada’s big race for 3yos last year – and is regularly one of the leading jockeys at Woodbine.
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