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A good race in prospect this afternoon.
I can’t have Free World any more – he looks a short runner to me. Despite this being over a furlong shorter, I can’t see why he would reverse the form with Panjo Bere, and the forecast prices of 11/8 Free World, 9/2 Panjo Bere don’t represent the horses’ respective chances.
The fly in the ointment could be Doctor David. Caroline Bailey is an underrated trainer (though I might be biased as I used to ride out for her), and I know she has always thought a great deal of this horse. Like many on this forum, I rate I’msingingtheblues extremely highly (and have backed him for the Arkle), and Doctor David’s second to him is a great piece of form.
At 7/4 he is the bet I think – if he was trained by PFN he would be odds-on, but with Free World in the race the others are artificially long in the betting.
(At my peril, I am writing off the other two runners, so Gauvain will probably hack up.)
Thoughts/opinions greatly appreciated.
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I actually quite like Gauvain for this, despite him having been beaten by Free World at Sandown three outings ago. Softer ground would probably be ideal, but I expect him to cope.
It will be interesting to see how Doctor David fares. He brings the strongest form into the race and his performance may offer some clues as to I’msingingtheblues’s chances at Cheltenham.
If the ground is good then Cornas is a cracking price at 9-1 with Paddy Power, should go close with a decent pace on.
Fancy Free World myself. Ground will be no worse than G-S and he’ll get home over 16F in such conditions. Ladbrokes are going shortest as well which is always a good sign. Doctor David will be a tough rival to beat though. I don’t think Panjo Bere will have enough speed.
Interesting comments chaps, thanks. In conclusion then, the two I’d ruled out have a great chance, the favourite I was keen to oppose has a great chance, and so does Doctor David.
Starting to think a watching brief might be best. I used to be good at working out these small field novice chases, but I’m beginning to wonder now…..
Interesting comments chaps, thanks. In conclusion then, the two I’d ruled out have a great chance, the favourite I was keen to oppose has a great chance, and so does Doctor David.
Lol I shouldn’t listen to us.
I have been known to be wrong every now and then.
I have been known to be wrong every now and then.
I was wrong one day too…
Cornas is rightly shrinking, think hes got a cracking chance today.
Free World just cannot last home can he? Its clear now back him at Aintree or Kempton leave him alone everywhere else.
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