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Joe,I always admire a man who can maintain a philosophical outlook when his roofs just been blown off his house. 99% of my betting is done on the machine in running and todays King george in running market set a precedant.I was of the opinion after the weather we’ve had that it would be between the first 2 and for 90% of the race your horse was cantering all over the eventual winner,he out-jumped him at every fence and his in-running odds just kept shortening.4 out I was kidding myself ‘Silviniaco’ could go with ‘Cue Card’ but Joes horse was absolutely pulling double whereas the Nicholls horse was just maintaining a gallop,a gallop I knew he’d keep but visually there’s no getting away from the fact ‘Cue Card’ was toying with him,2 out and going to the last ‘Cue Card’ traded between 1/5 and shorter but to stop like he did was alarming.’Silviniaco’only kept up to his work,he didn’t quicken he just looked like he did because of the drastic slowing of the fav.I wouldn’t be surprised if when the dust settles the mention of pace re-surfaces.Sadly ‘Cue Card’ wont be going for Gold but a 2nd Ryanair is nothing to be sniffed at,as ‘Albertas Run’ will tell you.I still maintain looking at todays collective Kempton times,Joe Tizzard must have wore the watch he won in a Xmas Cracker!
Feel rather deflated after todays race [never felt that about the King George before], but it’s a bit like the time when Dessie retired and racing lost it’s edge for me. I realy am chuffed for Noel Fehily but very nuch wanted Cue Card to win. Dom Alcos are very tough horses and PN shows yet again how he can get horses spot on for big races like this, especially when he’s dangerously hungry to get his title back. Poor Long Run. I so want that horse to be retired [and shows yet again how phenomenal Kauto Star was to go on season after season without burning out].
Even though it would have been the biggest win of my life – by a very long way – I can’t complain. Stakes v returns, Cue Card owes me nothing and probably never will. One of the major advantages of a horse like him, as you know, is that they field against him time after time after time. Long may they continue doing so.
Al Ferof is not a horse I have been a big fan of and we didn’t learn much more about him in a match last time. It seems sensible to concentrate on the Betfair chase where the first four renew rivalry in this Boxing Day classic.
At first glance it seems Cue Card was a cosy enough winner of the Betfair but I felt that the second and third were coming to perhaps take him on in the run-in that day, before both seemed to come to the end of their tethers relatively quickly and it became clear Cue Card would hold on. With Cue Card now favourite it is vital to look back at his effort in this race last year, where he never really looked likely. The ground was bad that day but it’s still nagging me and I want to take him on
once
more at least in this race.
Long Run has a lot to make up with Cue Card and despite his good record in the race I can’t see him turning around 15-20 lengths with
three
rivals. That leaves Dynaste and Silvianaco Conti as the two to choose from. I have always preferred the latter of those two and I think he has less to prove as a big time player, having won more than twice the prize money of his rival. I reckon Rich is a bit harsh, not to mention premature, in labelling Silvianaco a "shadow" of his former self at the tender age of seven.
If Silvianaco Conti comes on a little for his first run of the season he hardly has a lot of ground to make up on those ahead of him in the betting and he’s worth a go at 6/1 or so for me.
20pts on the hooter!!
A fair analysis, and a fine call, Steve. Well done
Gold Cup is deffo not the race for Cue Card. One Man anyone?
Beat me to the post. Reminded me of One Man in the Gold Cup Mr Mulligan won.
I wouldn’t totally rule Cue Card out the Gold Cup as of yet, take Silvianco out the race and Cue Card beats Al Ferof by 11 lengths, with Dynaste miles behind (Something a miss with him?) and Long Run unseating when beating.
Now I’ve got that off my chest, do still believe in Cue Card. Should have the requisite stamina for 3m around Kempton as long as it is no worse than soft. Although by a sire not known for soft ground progeny in Kings Theatre, last year’s Ascot performance proves his ability to act on the surface – if not to stay 3m on it. Just hope Joe doesn’t get embroiled in a pace duel with the other pace forcer Champion Court. If jockeys are clever, neither mount is absolutely stamina laden, Champions Court even less so (appeared not to stay in this race last season) – so a lickety-split gallop will help neither’s cause. They managed to dispute it in the Ryanair with Joe victorious and hopefully will do so again. Not letting last year’s race put me off Cue Card. Less relaxed than he is now and jockey tried to hold him up which did not suit; never recovering from early mistakes. In my opinion Exeter and Ascot prove he’s equally effective going right-handed and don’t see why Kempton should be any different. Stable form is a slight worry, but enough have run well without winning recently.
Another nice piece of analysis, Ginger. Champ Court never got the chance to be the fly in the ointment, but you were spot on about CC
A disappointing race for me on two counts. Long Run, who I’ve had a great deal of fun (and success) following, has undoubtedly come to the end of his tether. Perhaps having so many top notch and grueling races from an early age has caught up with him and I expect, and dearly hope, that he is allowed to enjoy the next few years out of the limelight, perhaps point to point or even eventing would keep him occupied. It would be a shame to see him slogging it out for 4th or 5th place in decent races and I would expect Robert Waley-Cohen to do the right thing by the horse, he most certainly doesn’t need the place money. As it appears to be getting mooted, I don’t think the National is the route for him either, I don’t think he has been keeping on same pace at the end of his last two races as if he needed further, I think he just looked more tired and jaded.
The second disappointment was seeing Cue Card blow up so badly when looking like a very special animal. He still is a superb horse, but I suppose it’s the magic of having a horse that looks like a potential Gold Cup wonder horse, and then the bubble bursts. I can imagine how Joe feels, he’s championed this horse for quite some time, and he’s been spot on, so it must have felt like a kick in the gonads when he started treading water going to the last.
It was a good performance by Silviniaco Conti, but I can’t say I’m quite elated about his performance and chances in the Gold Cup. He won well enough but only with Cue Card coming back to him. I’d still rather have Bobs Worth, even after his blip in the Betfair, before Silviniaco Conte. I just wished there was a new kid on the block in relation to the Gold Cup scene, it’s a bit same old same old at the moment. Oh well, back to the drawing board.
Cue Card is best up with the pace so can’t blame the jockeyship too much. The horse is best from the front and in the first three-quarters of the race evident every time Joe tried to slow it down – Noel would go up again to force his hand (brilliant ride by the under-rated Fehily). In hindsight, one mistake Joe made was to go for home in ernest too soon, should’ve remained upsides Silvi instead of going clear rounding the turn. However, like many punters… Connections of Cue Card put away/influenced by the official Betfair Chase distance of
"3m1f"
. ie If he "stayed"* 3m1f on soft at Haydock there should not have been too much of a problem staying 3m on Soft/heavy in a place. Kempton times suggest the ground was not as bad as that anyway. But there’s a giant sized doubt whether he did actually win at "3m1f" at Haydock – which goes some way to explain the two contrasting performances.
*In fact, it is wrong to say Cue Card "did not stay", just "outstayed" by Silvi.
On good ground it may be a different story another year, but I won’t have 40/1 about him winning "another year".
Value Is EverythingGutted
For such a thrilling exhibition of front running to end with him emptying like that, well . . .
Joe Tizzard was immense in defeat.
Well done to all Silvi backers
Do you not think JT went too quick, especially considering the possibility of the horse being slightly off it ?
I know the few horses the yard were sending out were running well enough but there was a slight concern and yet he ran with the choke out and set the race up for Silviniaco Conti.
I wish Zarks still posted on the forum. " Silviniaco Conti must be a horrible horse to own / train "
Yeah. Must be terrible.
The point about Noel Fehilly – i thought it was telling that when Nicholls used him during one of Ruby’s spells out with injury a couple of years ago that the then champion trainers strike rate increased if anything. Horses which had been winning comfortably, with Walsh being praised throughout, were winning just as easily with Fehilly aboard.
He’s a brilliant jockey. Harry Fry, Lavelle and Longsdon have all reaped the benefits.
Fehilly for Fry – 34% strike rate, +46.47 level stakes.
" " for Longsdon – 22% strike rate, +15.15 level stakes
" " for Lavelle – 27% strike rate, + 25.70 level stakesGutted
For such a thrilling exhibition of front running to end with him emptying like that, well . . .
Joe Tizzard was immense in defeat.
Well done to all Silvi backers
Joe your namesake cost your horse any chance today,he basically took them along too fast.On good ground your horse would have won.Todays ground was nearer Heavy than soft and ‘Silviniaco’ was always better suited to a slog.In all my years I dont recall a horse stopping so quickly and that was because Joe got his fractions so wrong,in any normal year the Feltham is run a couple of seconds slower than the King george and yet this year ‘Annacotty’ set a good clip and maintained it but still clocked an 8 sec slower time than the big race itself…..The Clock never lies and Joe Tizzard knows he needs to learn to tell the time!Your horse cant be opposed for the Ryanair after todays run mind,small consolation unless you took the 6/1!
I can’t have that at all. If you were shaking your head wistfully 2 out at Tizzard setting a suicidal pace, fair enough. But you weren’t, because it looked a perfect race by horse and jockey until that dramatic stop.
Mark (and others), I think it’s one of those (for me at least) hindsight conclusions. yes, Joe went too fast.
The trouble is we have no other outcomes against which to judge his tactics. Had he gone Annacotty’s pace in the Feltham, for example, would he have taken enough out of Silv Conti and the others to remove the threat?
When he did ease off the pedal slightly, SC harried him. At this point Joe is faced with maybe easing back and letting SC take over – but in doing that he sacrifices momentum and possibly rhythm. Against him, mentally, was his belief that no horse could live with CC up front because of the horse’s speed: he stuck with that belief, determined to see off any challenger.
Anyway, if he had the chance to ride the race again, I’ve no doubt he’d do it differently. It will be interesting to see his tactics should they choose the Gold Cup in March.
He has the quicker turn of foot, though.
The other way of approaching it is that, on soft ground, he’s beaten the other horses yet again apart from a fitter Silviniaco Conti. Form would suggest he’s the better Good ground horse so under more suitable conditions at Cheltenham…
Good ground festival and i’d go Gold Cup. Softer and i’d retain the Ryanair crown
Steepechasing you clearly follow the horse and connections far closer than I, but I cannot have it that Joe Tizzard was at fault. It was a strange occurrence was it not, stopping like that? I’d be more inclined to speculate, and only speculate, there is a connection to the appalling yard form building up to the race.
I think that if SS doesn’t turn up, CC will go for the QM. Be crazy not to
But if he does, then a ground based decision on the other two races.
Nice to have options though !!
Steepechasing you clearly follow the horse and connections far closer than I, but I cannot have it that Joe Tizzard was at fault. It was a strange occurrence was it not, stopping like that? I’d be more inclined to speculate, and only speculate, there is a connection to the appalling yard form building up to the race.
It’s a possibility PC. Third Intention – another of their horses that I follow – has gone out tamely in his last three runs (I’m convinced there’s a big prize in that horse despite the funds he’s drained from me). Hey Big Spender was pulled up at Chepstow.
I don’t know the Tizzards, but it seems to me they’ve handled the doubters of CC with dignity over the past few seasons. CT definitely regretted mentioning there had been any kind of virus in the yard, and, even if they found something wrong with CC after the race, I suspect it will never be aired publicly for fear of being branded an excuse and detracting from the winner.
As I mentioned earlier, I’ve never seen a horse stop like that in a Grade 1. If you watch it again from just after 2 out, his knees stop rising; his front legs are kind of walking while his back legs are still trying to drive him on – very odd to watch, and however you feel about Joe’s ride, it must have been the most gut-sinking thing he’s ever experienced on a horse.
In trying to be logical, rather than seek excuses myself for what was the punt of a lifetime for me, I took the view that the pace he’d set eventually emptied CC. He had the class to make it empty almost everything else much sooner than he went, and SC just kept on, and was close enough to be able to pick up the pieces. Credit to SC, who took CC on early and was never worse than 2 lengths back until his weary-looking jump 3 out, although he put his head down right away and battled on.
Graham Cunningham tweeted that although the overall time was 8 seconds faster than Annacotty’s in the Feltham, SC took ’12 lengths longer’ from the 4th last to the winning post than Annacotty did. That suggests that more even sectionals might have made a big difference, but we’ll never know.
I do think staying is his game – his jumping has certainly improved since going up in trip, and despite some hefty ante-post bets on Bobs Worth for the Gold Cup, I took some 25s about CC too and would love to see him turn the tables and prove himself a true champion to all.
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