- This topic has 107 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 10 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
He will win the King George, and if there’s enough cut at Cheltenham, he’ll win the Gold Cup too.
Hope so Joe. I like your confidence and the 7/2 I took yesterday will look outstanding after he bolts up………
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Fascinating race. Following (very) much deliberation have backed Long Run e/w (11.5/1 win, 100/30 place) and Riverside Theatre e/w (39/1 win, 11/2 place).
Good luck ladies and gents.
Hmmm, Cue Card appeared to win totally on merit in the Betfair.
At the time I did not think Dynaste (whom I backed last time) could reverse form …the market is strong with this one (Dynaste) and Cue Card is gonna be 4/1 with Hills Boxing Day AM according to previous poster. (why don’t they just off that price straight a way – damage limitation?)
I can’t have
ANY
Nicholls’ horse at the moment – there was one that ran at Ascot the other day – Cadre Bleu(?) and he was cantering and found little at the end and lost. His horses are not right IMHO.
the best bet is LONG RUN for a place – you can get 11/5 on Betfair as I type.
I’ll either back Dynaste, coz the vibes are good, or Long Run for a place. Not sure
Note of caution, though, Cue Card was weak in the market and won the Betfair Chase well last time, so maybe one should not place so much credence in it
Zip
Think the test he’ll face tomorrow will be too much for him especially if trying to make all, might get very tired late on. However WH are going 4/1 tomorrow morning should anyone fancy him (if not backed ante post already).
You write Long Run off at your peril and if he is in the same mood as he was last year he will be tough to get past. I don’t really fancy the others so I’ve backed him at 12s and MB at 18s, should be a great race.
I’m with you on this Rich, after the Charlie Hall I thought I was being a bit smart grabbing the 10/1, only to see him drift out to 20/1 after his disappointing run in the Betfair. I had a piece of that too, and just to show I’m more than capable of putting all my eggs in the one basket, I also took the 16s when it started coming back down. In short, if his early tough career hasn’t started to catch up with him, and if SWC doesn’t try and and run him through a fence instead of jumping it, like he did in the Charlie Hall, I might just have a very merry Christmas. If ever a horse was suited to this race it’s Long Run.
If it is truly "heavy" then that may count against Cue Card, on "stamina" grounds as much as "going" conditions. I know last time was officially "3m1f", but I simply do not believe the advertised Betfair Chase statistics. In my opinion practically impossible for a horse to do 6 min 10 secs for 3m1f on Soft ground around Haydock. Hope someone on RUK/CH4 points this out, because it is putting punters away, not only for the King George, but also Gold Cup. HOW are punters supposed to calculate an informed opinion of a horse’s stamina requirements if horses form statistics bear no relation to the race in question?
Now I’ve got that off my chest, do still believe in
Cue Card
. Should have the requisite stamina for 3m around Kempton as long as it is no worse than soft. Although by a sire not known for soft ground progeny in Kings Theatre, last year’s Ascot performance proves his ability to act on the surface – if not to stay 3m on it. Just hope Joe doesn’t get embroiled in a pace duel with the other pace forcer
Champion Court
. If jockeys are clever, neither mount is absolutely stamina laden, Champions Court even less so (appeared not to stay in this race last season) – so a lickety-split gallop will help neither’s cause. They managed to dispute it in the Ryanair with Joe victorious and hopefully will do so again. Not letting last year’s race put me off Cue Card. Less relaxed than he is now and jockey tried to hold him up which did not suit; never recovering from early mistakes. In my opinion Exeter and Ascot prove he’s equally effective going right-handed and don’t see why Kempton should be any different. Stable form is a slight worry, but enough have run well without winning recently.
Who would take advantage of a real stamina test?
Dynaste
seems one likely to prove best at up to 3 miles (no further), so an out and out slugfest at 3 miles (if heavy) unlikely to be his strong-suit. Pipe horse was going (if anything) better than Cue Card two out in the Betfair Chase, travels well in his races. I don’t hold with the "needed run" scenario, connections passed over easier earlier targets to take in Haydock and good record fresh. That said, it was by far Dynaste’s best performance yet and may still be on the up. Also has Kempton form from running away with a novice chase at this meeting last year and possibly best in Autumn/Winter.
Al Ferof
yet to run over the trip, though could be suited by it judged by run style and sire Dom Alco. Ran away with handicap at Cheltenham on very soft ground 2m4f110yrds stiffest test to date. Didn’t have much to beat on return from injury/reappearance, but did it well nonetheless. Lightly raced over fences and probably more to come, although there will have to be if he’s to beat a top form Cue Card. From some time ago trainer seemed keener on his chance in this than Stable companion. At first glance
Silviniaco Conti
probably has less to make up on Cue Card and Dynaste on Betfair Chase form than betting indicates. However, seems more exposed than those two (and Al Ferof). Again, despite it being first time up was likely to be 100% primed for Haydock. Whether a real stamina test will suit remains to be seen. Fell before stamina became an issue in the Gold cup.
Long Run
‘s stamina is a big tick in these conditions, but first time visor needs to work the oracle judging by this year’s mediocre performances. Last years form when beating Captain Chris probably not good enough this time around either. Needs to hit the heights that saw him beat and then chase home Kauto Star. I’d rather the two stablemates changed headgear, been waiting for Long run to wear a hood. Convinced jumps better and finds more under presure with ear plugs fitted
during
a race! But may be it will work on
Riverside Theatre
? Despite favoured by weights looked laboured before storming home on run-in last time in Peterborough Chase. Trainer believes "best fresh" and that run only two weeks ago! However, blinkers and hood applied – it’s just about possible to see a return to the sort of form that got second spot here. Difficult to see a win though. Another by Kings Theatre who may not be at his very best on testing ground.
Menorah
stays 3m and acts on very soft, but will he stay 3m on very soft? I have my doubts. Stable seem in good form. Usually finds at least one too good in top company anyway and not the most consistent jumper.
Mount Benbulben
is still in theory unexposed, but another who ruins his chance more often than not with errors. As last time, unseated while traveling well, too far out to know how he would’ve fared. One exceptional run to his name at the back end of last season, has the "could be anything" tag, but in truth that form could be "good" or "suspect", possibility of all other runners failing to show to best advantage at Punchestown.
100% Book for Soft (not heavy)
Cue Card 3/1, Dynaste 7/2, Al Ferof 4/1 (67% 12 three combined), Silviniaco Conti 6/1, Long Run 14/1, Riverside Theatre 22/1, Mount Benbulben 25/1, Menorah 28/1, Champion Court 100/1Value Is EverythingOn Al Ferof at 12/1 and Menorah [wish I’d backed him at 33/1 but was convinced he wouldn’t run]. Always back a Hobbs horse to place in this race. Pity about Captain Chris not running.
Hi fellow punters, this is my first post after months of voyeurism,I must say this is a most informative forum and you all seem very well versed in the nuances of horse racing.
Anyway, today’s big race looks, and should hopefully turn out to be, an absolute cracker.
For what it’s worth I’ll be lumping on Cue Card, the ground this morning has been declared Soft, with only very light showers expected. This is a major plus for me as any worse than Soft and I would probably not bet at all.
Watching the Betfair Chase over and over I just cannot see how Dynaste and Silviniaco Conte could possibly improve past Cue Card in just over a month – he was striding away from them with ease,and still had PLENTY more in the tank when lowering their colours. I don’t think Al Ferof is ready for this and Long Run could cost E/W backers plenty today…….
The only part of the giant puzzle which I can’t really tie down is Menorah, and may have a small E/W saver on.
Best of luck to everyone.
Cue Card – won on soft
Menorah – soft and heavy
Riverside Theatre – soft
Captain Chris – heavy
The New One – soft
Voler La Vedette – soft and heavy
Baily Green – soft and heavy
Theatre Guide – softthe list goes on.
It’s naive to call King’s Theatre a good ground sire. He himself won on soft and performed well enough in the Arc at a distance which stretched him unless on the quickest of goings.
I’ve always regarded him as a sire who’s progeny can act on anything, with varying degrees of success depending on the particular horse and the influence from the distaff side.Good luck, everyone. Hopefully a brilliant race without casualties.
What a race. Hope it was just a matter of stamina for Cue Card, as he did shorten so quickly after the second last.
Silviniano Conti just hung in and ran all the way to the line.
Gutted
For such a thrilling exhibition of front running to end with him emptying like that, well . . .
Joe Tizzard was immense in defeat.
Well done to all Silvi backers
Dynaste
ran a very disappointing race being well beaten far in advance. I’ve watched the race many times, and I can’t figure out the reasons why he ran so badly.
Silviniaco Conti
probably has less to make up on Cue Card and Dynaste on Betfair Chase form than betting indicates. However, seems more exposed than those two (and Al Ferof). Again,
despite it being first time up was likely to be 100% primed for Haydock
.
It just goes to show that it is difficult second guessing trainers. Paul Nicholls told us afterwards that the horse was well short in the Betfair and was always going to come on a ton for it, with The King George being the main target.
Also interesting that he believes the horse is all about stamina, despite other opinions.
Long Run looks a spent force to me and I would be worried for those who backed him at favourite for the Grand National. I can’t see it myself.
Cue Card was brilliant from the front but the Boxing Day "gravy" ran out again. It’s always dangerous to assume a horse has "proved" anything based on
one
run. I’ll be happy to take him on again if he shows up in the Gold Cup.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
In a strange way what happened today wouldn’t necessarily put me off CC for the Gold Cup. In my view ground can be just as stamina stapping as trip and whilst he ran out of petrol today, he was still cantering well into the straight, and on better ground would surely have got home. I think I’ll be mulling it over for a while yet.
- Total Posts 764
In a strange way what happened today wouldn’t necessarily put me off CC for the Gold Cup. In my view ground can be just as stamina stapping as trip and whilst he ran out of petrol today, he was still cantering well into the straight, and on better ground would surely have got home. I think I’ll be mulling it over for a while yet.
Every man and his dog will have a different opinion for this years Cheltenham Gold Cup and rightly so.
The Lexus may well result in more questions being asked than answered too.
Gutted
For such a thrilling exhibition of front running to end with him emptying like that, well . . .
Joe Tizzard was immense in defeat.
Well done to all Silvi backers
Joe your namesake cost your horse any chance today,he basically took them along too fast.On good ground your horse would have won.Todays ground was nearer Heavy than soft and ‘Silviniaco’ was always better suited to a slog.In all my years I dont recall a horse stopping so quickly and that was because Joe got his fractions so wrong,in any normal year the Feltham is run a couple of seconds slower than the King george and yet this year ‘Annacotty’ set a good clip and maintained it but still clocked an 8 sec slower time than the big race itself…..The Clock never lies and Joe Tizzard knows he needs to learn to tell the time!Your horse cant be opposed for the Ryanair after todays run mind,small consolation unless you took the 6/1!
I still can’t have Nicholls’ horses. The winner did outstay Cue Card and, so fair play to him, but Al Ferof was stuffed back in 3rd, maybe he did not stay? His horses either win because they outclass the oppo, or the one in front falls in a hole. His fav in the Feltham was woeful
Gold Cup is deffo not the race for Cue Card. One Man anyone?
Cue Card for the Ryanair looks a great bet, but trainer still piping up about the Gold Cup.
I respect Conti for the Blue Riband but does any contender stand out?
Dynaste was lifeless, strange, twas positive in the market.
Zip
Gord, you might well be right – that was certainly my immediate post-race thought that Joe had gone a yard too fast. But he was between a rock and a hard place. CC has always jumped much better with no restraint. Haydock appeared to prove he stayed the trip with no problem, indeed that he’d improved for it (his dam ‘wanted 4 and a half miles’, as JT has said more than once.
Like you, I cannot recall a horse emptying like that in a top class race. To go from still on the bit to zero in a few strides (JT obviously felt him go, as that was the point at which he looked round) especially with one who actually seemed to win by outstaying everything at Haydock, well, what do you conclude? It looked a textbook example of a non-stayer, almost a caricature of one. The virus question entered my head, but the horse looked absolutely superb and I’ve never seen him jump so well, so I can’t have the virus as an excuse.
As for the winner, he’s one I’ve never been able to make up my mind about, but I would most certainly not put him down as all stamina. For a horse to have the tactical speed to be in the van throughout at that pace, to come under pressure and begin struggling (he looked exhausted, almost climbing the third last), and then find the reserves and will to get back into it, well, he’s a serious horse. For him to be 4s for the Gold Cup, I can only assume some doubt must remain in bookies’ minds about flat tracks perhaps suiting him best.
But casting your mind back to how well he was travelling 3 out in March, and that he’s a stronger, better horse whose jumping seems to have improved, well, 4/1 seems big to me.
Finally, and going back to your original point, Noel Fehily is a man I’ve long admired. Under-rated for years as he struggled from injury to injury, I’m delighted to see him get the results his talent and perseverance deserves . . . I just wish it hadn’t been today.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.