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I’m with Cue Card at the moment but soft ground would be a big negative. 1 win beyond 2m5f and that was against horses in poor form / questions to answer.
Simonsig is the ‘ sexy ‘ horse for the race but he is a couple of years behind Cue Card in terms of experience and improvement.
Dynaste – Wouldn’t back it if it was the only runner.
Long Run – might place, hopefully a good race will mean a better horse wins
Bobs Worth – won’t run
Al Ferof – stamina and fitness to prove
Silviniaco Conti – has a chanceCue Card is going in an each way " banker " bet for the autumn / winter
One thing to take into account is that this race is unique above virtually any other race in that individual winners of the race are rare, 4 out of 5 winners are horses winning the race more than once,
Pendil twice
Captain Christy twice
Silver Buck twice
Wayward Lad 3 times
Desert Orchid 4 times
The Fellow twice
One Man twice
See More Business twice
Kicking King Twice
Kauto Star 5 times
Long Run twiceThis race has Long Run written all over it, won twice, second once and still only 8. 8/1 is a crazy price
Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth taken out of the betting with Sponsors Hills…yet 8s still available about Cue Card. Crazy, crazy, crazy. I like Al Ferof a lot but he will be trying to come back from serious injury, and Cue Card has already seen off most of the rest of them.
I continue to be astounded at how many pros insist on fielding against CC every time he runs, despite him being just about the most consistent, regularly raced, high class horse in training.
If he has a misfortune, it is to be competing in the same generation as the mighty Sprinter Sacre. Without that horse, all else being the same, here is Cue Card’s record:
Wins The Melling by 19L from Flemenstar
Wins the Arkle by 22L from Menorah
Won the Ryanair by 9L from First Lieutenant
Won the Betfair in 3rd gear at Ascot by 6L from Cap Chris
Btn short head by Bobs Worth giving the GC winner half a stone (and he should have won that day)
Hammers Silv Conti on fencing debut
Btn 6 &1/2L by Al Ferof in Supreme
Beats Al Ferof and 22 others by 8L + in Chelt Bumper on 2nd outing.Am I missing something here or don’t the bookies read form in the way of normal people?
Joe
You can’t be selective with the history Joe.
As Sea Pigeon pointed out, in the middle of that form there is a 5th – beaten out of sight @ Kempton over 3 miles.
– Needs to prove he stays
– Needs the ground to not get too slow (won’t run, let alone win if it does)8/1 is probably just about right in my book.
Lee
I always prefer a proven 3 miler than a ‘sexy’ horse stepping up to 3 miles, at the moment Long Run for me is a banker to be placed
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I find it difficult to look past Long Run at 8/1, think I’m right in saying he’s had 26 runs and has placed in every single one of them. Obviously he’s not getting any better but he’ll have a prep run most likely then be sent to his favourite Kempton.
8/1 e/w on Betvictor will do for me
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Kinda like Al Ferof 14/1 as well
Mount Benbulben 20/1 simply for the fact his form on right handed tracks is excellent.
Cue Card should be a force this season.
I find it difficult to look past Long Run at 8/1, think I’m right in saying he’s had 26 runs and has placed in every single one of them. Obviously he’s not getting any better but he’ll have a prep run most likely then be sent to his favourite Kempton.
8/1 e/w on Betvictor will do for me
I’m with you all the way BHison, I raved about Long Run before his Gold Cup win in 2011 and did very well with a few ante posts from well before the race. I have argued with his doubters many times, including on here, and to be fair I’ve had my fingers burned a few times. Even when he hasn’t quite had enough, or not run to his best, he still manages to be there or thereabouts. I’m not going to raise the old SWC chestnut, but I would have loved to see Barry Geraghty on him in the 2012 and 2013 Gold Cups. Good jockey as SWC is, Geraghty is simply a better jockey (I guess I just did raise that old chesnut
) His record at Kempton is impeccable, three wins out of four, with two King George wins out of three and only being beaten in the 2011 KG by Kauto Star who was simply at his best that day and was unbeatable.
I don’t know what it is, but there has always been an underlying vibe of hostility from certain quarters towards this horse. His record has been superb, you are spot on Bhisone, he has been placed in all his 26 races, winning 14 of them.
He has never run a bad race anywhere, in particular at Kempton. So I’m at a loss to work out why he is 8/1, in my book he should be favourite.
Simonsig is a superb horse with an immaculate record, however I don’t know if the King George plays to his strengths. He has run over 3m, but only in PTP’s. Under rules, the furthest he has run is 2m 5f and with the speed that he shows, good enough to win an Arkle over 2m at the festival this year, I’m not sure that a King George, with the full out pace it will no doubt be run at, plays to his strengths. He might bolt up in the race, but it’s uncharted territory for him.
I’m more worried about Dynaste, who won the Feltham at Kempton last year with some ease. He is a serious contender and 6/1 might look very big come the off on Boxing Day.
However at this point I’m having some of the 8/1 on Long Run, which I reckon will be more like 3/1 come the big day.
I’m so glad were headed into the jumps season, it’s where the real racing is in my book.
Good luck
To save duplicate threads
I’d really like Cue Card to go down in history as a King George winner. Should find out more about Al Ferof in a couple of weeks.
Lee, I don’t know if you looked at my blog link on my original post here. If not, here’s an extract:
He ran poorly in the 2012 King George (his first attempt at 3 miles) although he was on his nose at the first, blundered again at the third and generally seemed to struggle in the deep ground – the worst going the race had been run on since 1937.
Should it be as muddy again this year, I doubt he will run. But the going there is usually no worse than good to soft. He was showing no signs of stopping in the Ryanair on good to soft and I’d expect him to stay the extra 3 furlongs of the King George on the pancake flat Kempton course.
Ladbrokes go 10s now they’ve opened the market . . . trust me, lads, this is the value bet of the century!
Good to see Cue Card’s odds dropping as other contenders drop out. However, a concern could be Silvianaco Conti. He didn’t run last year but it would seem logical to go Betfair Chase, King George, Cheltenham like Kauto Star most years. Antepost odds suggest it’s not certain he will run but if he did I think he would be favourite.
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I think Nichols can bring Al Ferof back for this!
Cue Card was somewhat disappointing today, finishing third in The Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, a race he won last season. The trainer said they couldn’t use needing the run as an excuse as he goes so well fresh and they felt he was pretty much flat out all the way today. The plan is to step him up in trip now, as the jockey felt he shaped more like a stayer today. The Betfair Chase at Haydock is said to be his target now. That should make for a potentially tasty looking clash with Bobs Worth and Silviano Conti among others.
The betting for the Betfair Chase is quoted as following as I write this:-
The sponsors bet on their Betfair Sportsbook: 7-4 Bobs Worth, 3-1 Silviniaco Conti, 8-1 Tidal Bay, 10-1 Dynaste, First Lieutenant, Long Run, 12-1 Cue Card, Roi Du Mee, 14-1 Harry Topper, 16-1 The Giant Bolster, 20-1 Imperial Commander, 25-1 Cape Tribulation, 28-1 Prince De Beauchene, 33-1 Wayward Prince, 40-1 Cloudy Too, 150-1 Mr Moonshine.
Meanwhile Cue Card is back out to as big as 10/1 for the King George for those who share Steeplechasing’s confidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well my confidence was slightly dented today, but I know he’s better than that by some way. On the face of it, it was no disaster off 172, but I was surprised JT didn’t make more use of CC over that trip. That would have helped in both burning some energy out of the others, and with his jumping as I think he’s always best when asked up at a fence.
JT often leaves CC to decide how best he’s going to get from one side to the other. He knows the horse better than anyone, but it never looks good to my eye, and when ridden in with commitment, CC always seems to deliver at fences.
JT claims the slip today at the 4th ‘knocked his confidence’ (I’m assuming he was talking about the horse). RP summary says CC did not look fully fit in the paddock.
I can’t make up my mind whether I want to see him go for the Betfair. Perhaps CT feels that having gone without a run last season between Exeter and the KG was a bad idea. He’s a horse who seems to run pretty well when he’s busy, so there must be every chance he will turn up at Haydock, especially as his trainer appears to have left a bit to work on.
If they all go to post, it will be a cracking race and I’ll get in the car and southbound early that Saturday morning. I like Bobs Worth almost as much as Cue Card, but at 12s the latter V 7/4 BW, I know which I’ll be backing. At least Haydock will prove once and for all if he stays 3m in top company, assuming he puts in a clear round.
I think the Betfair would be a mistake for Cue Card. Usually very soft ground and only a month before the King George, surely the best plan is to give CC a few easy days and prep him for Kempton and hope there’s some decent ground.
The prize money for some of these staying chases is appalling. 17k for the Denman Chase in February.
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