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Kauto Star has won and been placed on what was always going to be two thirds of his campaign this term.
Why retire a perfectly capable, healthy horse mid-season?
You can’t compare his performance today to that of Dessie, who took a crashing fall when out of contention in his final race.
If you take a glance at the Gold Cup market, the majority of leading contenders all have doubts hanging over them:
Imperial Commander – Much was made about Kauto and Denman being too old last year. Imperial Commander is at that age now. Only two 10YOs have won the race in the last twenty years – the last in 1998 (Cool Dawn).
Long Run – Yet to prove he will stay the extended three miles-two. The last 6YO to win the race was Mill House back in 1963.
Denman – Only one win in his last eight starts since beating Kauto in the Gold Cup. Has looked vulnerable since then and also an 11YO.
Diamond Harry – Came of age in the Hennessy. One swallow doesn’t make a summer and he disappointed in the RSA at The Festival last year. His only defeat as a novice hurdler also came in March.
Pandorama – Nice performance to land the Lexus on his last start, but yet to produce a high class effort on anything better than soft. Dry conditions will certainly do him no favours.
Kauto is the only horse in the field to win two Gold Cups. Retiring the horse after one sub-standard performance makes no sense at all. He was always going to have just the one run after the King George, so why not let him take his chance?
If he is well beaten, then there is no point in persevering with him. A creditable effort – win or lose – and he retires gracefully. The fact is that there is no conclusive proof that he is incapable of being competitive in the Gold Cup.
Either way, he has a most distinguished career and will always be remembered as one of the all-time greats.
Lads the horse is an 11yo French bred. I think you are letting your emotions cloud your judgement (as we all do in this game at times). Once a horse starts to decline, it is more often than not a dramatic and swift process – see Istabraq in 2002, Moscow Flyer in 2006.
As I said previously, Kauto Star owes his connections nothing. He’s already won 4 King Georges and 2 Gold Cups. Why risk the animal in the hope of another when he’ll clearly be remembered as a great horse anyway?
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I backed against Kauto Star today, in part because there was a significant chance the 11 year old is on the downgrade.
However, there is one valid excuse as AJ says:Paul Nicholls isn’t exactly in sparkling form (only 4 winners from 35 runners in the last two weeks).
A lot of his have run below form recently, not just Kauto Star.
That’s tosh, really!
As PN has explained – every year, since he’s had a medium to do so – his horses are generally below form in January as the majority have their flu jabs, which they are given a couple of quiet weeks to get over, and every year since, people on this forum have cried "his horses are out of form".
Does anyone honestly believe Kauto would have been amongst them?Why would Kauto be retired if there is nothing wrong with him. He is a race horse, just because he does not win every race does not mean he needs to be retired regardless of his status!!
As for him having a bad fall and if god forbid anything did happened to him its the same risk every horse takes in any race. Not an excuse, why would cheltenham kill him more than any other horse. Then why let any horse run, Is one life more important than another?
No offence but I think some on this forum need to grow a pair and stop being so emotional. Kautos job is to race, plenty of horses older than him are still racing and winning, even in the bigger races.
I hope they do not retire him, like seriousely he was third today in front of a number of good horses, some that didnt even get around! Should they all be retired too.
He is not the horse he used to be but so what hes 11, he is still better than alot of other good younger horses. Unless he is hurt he should not be retired.
I think 3 wide and up with the pace is stupid tactics no matter what anyone says.
Being up with the pace…fair enough sit in behind 3l off Nacarat….but what they did was sit 3 wide 1l off the lead. Poor tactics and the horse didn’t deserve such shoddy treatment.
Ridden many NH horses over fences have we???
If you take a glance at the Gold Cup mar Kauto is the only horse in the field to win two Gold Cups. Retiring the horse after one sub-standard performance makes no sense at all. He was always going to have just the one run after the King George, so why not let him take his chance?
Except that I make it 2 sub standard runs which began in last season’s Gold Cup. I think Kauto Star and Denman are now past their best and should be given their dignity and retired. I realize that both horses have their fans but how would their fans feel if Paul Nicholls ran both in the Gold Cup & next fall that Kauto makes is fatal because tempt fate, it will happen.
If you take a glance at the Gold Cup mar Kauto is the only horse in the field to win two Gold Cups. Retiring the horse after one sub-standard performance makes no sense at all. He was always going to have just the one run after the King George, so why not let him take his chance?
Except that I make it 2 sub standard runs which began in last season’s Gold Cup. I think Kauto Star and Denman are now past their best and should be given their dignity and retired. I realize that both horses have their fans but how would their fans feel if Paul Nicholls ran both in the Gold Cup & next fall that Kauto makes is fatal because tempt fate, it will happen.
RedRumm77,
Fitzer made an excellent statement in his previous post:
As for him having a bad fall and if god forbid anything did happened to him its the same risk every horse takes in any race.
Both Denman and Kauto have shown enough this season to suggest they can be competitive in a Gold Cup.
So much has been made of their rivalry, but it would be a special moment if the pair of them were to bow out at Cheltenham, win or lose, and say farewell in front of the stands after the race.
Why is there this sudden paranoia that Kauto is going to be killed in the Gold Cup? The mind boggles.
The risk is no greater than any other race he’s competed in over the last six years.
I wish some people would just stop overreacting and get a grip. Jeez.
Perhaps I was looking for excuses, but to my eyes Kauto Star looked a little stiff behind as he walked around the pre-parade.
Did anyone else see this?
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Fist,
You seem to forget that Long Run is a six year old, the same age as Kauto was when he won his first King George. I don’t think that Long Run is best suited by Cheltenham, but today he looked like a horse very much suited by Kempton. We may yet see Long Run get better as he gets older and if he were to continue to progress in the same vein as Kauto, there is no reason he shouldn’t be a standing dish at Kempton providing he stays sound.
JohnJ
Haven’t forgotten he’s only 6 years old and I totally agree with you re; Kempton.
Apart from the Feltham when he beat next to nothing that’s the first time I’ve seen Long Run look like the Long Run I watched winning in France.
Maybe Nicky has got to the bottom of his jumping errors maybe not. It could be he needs to get into a undisturbed rhythm to be seen at his best like I said in a post before the race. As things turned out in this race as far as he was concerned for most of the race he hardly seen another horse and away from the hustle and bustle ran out of his skin.
My worry would be that you simply can’t do that in the Gold Cup at some point most horses come under some sort of pressure and the undulations alone can break a horses rhythm and lead to disastrous mistakes as we see so very often.
Up to now Long Run hasn’t really been given the chance to show us what he is capable of on a flat track like Kempton but he has now. Whether he can do the same at Cheltenham remains to be seen but all evidence would point to him not being able to do so.
You’re right though he has age on his side and if anyone can iron out his Cheltenham problems it’s Nicky Henderson.
As far as the King George goes if Kauto has gone there’s only one horse who could possibly stop Long Run winning again as things stand and that’s Imperial Commander.
You’d have to say he’d be a short priced fav to win again if the race were today but by next year who knows. Time For Rupert has Gold Cup written all over him and the Jury is still out on Micky D.
I’ve backed Kauto Star AP in every King George he’s run in because he was such an outstanding horse the chances of anything coming up through the ranks and being within a stone of him were remote let alone something beating him.
I don’t have the same confidence in Long Run because this was one crappy King George. There was no Exotic Dancer’s in that field today and Alberta’s as expected hated the ground.
That may get your back up but face facts Riverside Theatre also beat Kauto Star which tells you just how below par he was today…Nacarat doesn’t get the trip in fast run race and Planet of Sound is just an above average chaser…..surely there’s better to come from the younger brigade next season?
There’s got to be a good chance Long Run will win another King George but I wouldn’t be jumping in to back him AP like I did Kauto Star.
Very confusing time for all concerned and a wait and see policy is probably the best option.
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Perhaps I was looking for excuses, but to my eyes Kauto Star looked a little stiff behind as he walked around the pre-parade.
Did anyone else see this?
Nope and David Cleary would have spotted it in a second if he had been.
He did comment on him before the race saying he looked very fussy like he wasn’t happy in himself and the only other time he saw him like that was before the Gold Cup.
I never thought he looked like a shadow of his old self yesterday at any point in the race and thought he was beat after 3 fences. PN said the same thing you could see clearly he wasn’t going like a horse who usually looks like he’s walking when the rest are galloping and they didn’t set of that fast.
Why? is the big question and that we won’t know until he runs again.
Casting my mind back to a Paul Nichols interview he said if Kauto Wasn’t in the race he’d really fancy The Nightingale and he too has run a terrible race. I think he’s grossly overrated but if he isn’t it could be some of his PN’s horses have something on them and aren’t firing
Sam Winner ran a shocking race the other day, Brampour (this is a machine I heard) was beaten way too easily by a horse he had the beating of easily on the flat yesterday, then the Reformer drifted like a barge for some reason and he fades tamely into 3rd….who knows. I still think PN thought there was something not right with Kauto before the race and that’s why they changed tactics that have always worked for the horse. His a statement about him having lost some of his speed came from where? Not what he was telling everyone before the race unless I missed it.
I have no wish to see Kauto Star trailing in last in the Gold Cup and really hope they don’t send him to Cheltenham unless he really sparkles at home.
Ruby will be back soon and he knows the horse like the back of his hand and if Ruby isn’t totally happy with him in the weeks before Cheltenham I’d bet bet Clive Smith won’t prolong the agony and let go.
Perhaps I was looking for excuses, but to my eyes Kauto Star looked a little stiff behind as he walked around the pre-parade.
Did anyone else see this?
Yes, when he was in the pre-parade ring I had some concern. He looked slightly unhappy on his off-hind foot.
During the race he travelled poorly and seemed to struggle with his action – particularly going around the bends.
I don’t think the poor performance is all age.
Perhaps I was looking for excuses, but to my eyes Kauto Star looked a little stiff behind as he walked around the pre-parade.
Did anyone else see this?
Yes, when he was in the pre-parade ring I had some concern. He looked slightly unhappy on his off-hind foot.
During the race he travelled poorly and seemed to struggle with his action – particularly going around the bends.
I don’t think the poor performance is all age.
I’m glad someone else spotted it. As Fist said, surely the horse would not have been allowed to run if there was a real problem.
I remember thinking the same about Tango Royal before a veterans’ chase a few years back, but the commentators mentioned that the horse was a little arthritic – and that it would not affect his action in faster paces. Perhaps the on-course vet was aware of something similar with Kauto yesterday. He is eleven after all!
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I don’t think Kauto will get around and if he does I still think Riverside Theatre will beat him. 2 Mile speed and seems to love Kempton.
Riverside theatre at 16’s each-way is my bet.
I think we could see Kauto run his last race tomorrow guys.
I think Riverside would of done him even without the blunder, I now think he looks a good bet for the Ryanair or the Melling Chase (probably the latter would be best).
I also think Long Run should leave Cheltenham and go to the Aintree Bowl, although the fences are big he clearly acts better around a sharp track.
Kauto should be retired in my opinion but as long as he don’t get hurt I don’t care if he loses again, not gonna stop me celebrating Imperial Commander becoming one of the biggest margin winners of the Gold Cup. He’s gonna be fresh and the fact you can cover your bet each-way is laughable. He’ll be 2/1 before you can blink your eyes.
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Re Kauto behind
No offence guys but unless you’re very experienced with horses on a very close basis it hardly unlikely you would know if a horse was stiff or it’s just the way he walks. You could both be vest for I know so don’t take offence.
Kauto did have problem in his off fore back in 2008 but as far as I am aware he made a complete recovery with no after affects.
If you aren’t sure and really want to know why don’t you email David Cleary at Timeform Radio who was at the course. He really is a bit of a genius when it comes to a horses formation condition etc and had there been anything else other than what he reported he would surely have said so.
No one is disputing something was amiss but whatever it was paul Nichols failed to spot it or didn’t say.
The man has gone from "mad fresh, really well in himself" to him "losing his speed" overnight and I can’t accept that as a reason for his lacklustre performance.
If he had been his usual self and pulling AP’s arms out for the first mile yes! you could have put it down to that. PN said himself right from the word he never got the impression the horse was going like he usually does (The winner) and in the next breath he expects people to accept it’s just Kauto getting old.
More to it than that IMO..Funny thing is a couple of us were looking at Arkle’s victory over Mill House in the Gallgher Gold Cup and Ted Walsh made a comment that by that time Mill House had gone. Almost to man at the time people agreed..next thing you know Mill House does the impossible, bounced straight back to win the Whitbread Gold Cup with 11st 1lbs.
Kauto was finished 2 years ago according to half the forum..then he just goes and wins another King George and hacks up in the Gold Cup.
Wait and see is the best policy with him…..If he does make the Gold Cup I doubt if he’ll be 12/1 as he is now.
There would be that many panic merchants having just in case bets on him he’d end up nearly favourite
Racing Post website says:
According to Paul Nicholls:
Kato Star bled after the race.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Racing Post website says:
According to Paul Nicholls:
Kato Star bled after the race.
This is the sort of thing they’d say so they don’t get criticised for taking him to the Gold Cup. I’m not saying it’s a lie, just that it’s what they’d say.
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