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As far as Waldgeist goes, I’d be less concerned about ground, more concerned about racing away from France.
Good point GT. I’m never for these French horses with only form in France. Waldgeist did run his best race outside France last time out though, on RPR 119, so if better ground does eek out some more improvement he could definitely run into a place, but for me, if I was going to pick an EW play it would be Defoe I think. He’s also not anywhere near the level of the top 2 but I think he’s overpriced for a back to back Coronation Cup and Hardwick winner(albeit not the strongest renewals this year). AVD is the one that looks too short to me? It was a poor derby this year and the last horse to follow up here was Galileo nearly 20 years ago.
Ballydoyle will probably try and make Enable/CO go too fast, can see them trying to kick with Magic Wand a good way out to try and get them at it early. Enable is so good she’ll probably find a way, STS did when they tried everything they could to get him beat with tactics.
Really looking forward to seeing the star filly out again. Wont have a bean on and it’ll still feel like i’ve backed a 20s winner watching her win.
First time cheek pieces on the Derby winner.
Clutching at straws?imo Three horse race. Enable, Crystal Ocean and The Rest; with The Rest having the worst chance of the three.
Value Is EverythingCould this race force AVD in to the St Leger. If – as seems likely – he gets beaten fairly easily tomorrow, they surely won’t want him beaten twice by the same horses (Arc). Japan and Magical could go to France. Breeders Cup might be a possibility for AVD, but Enable did that double last year too. Only other race at that time of year for one unlikely to be as effective at 10f is the St Leger… Or retirement?
Value Is EverythingEnable looks much too short to me.
Crystal Ocean much too big.My 100% Book:
Enable 45.5% 6/5
Crystal Ocean 33% 2/1
(The Rest 21.5% almost 7/2)
Anthony Van Dyk 9% 10/1
Waldgeist 6% 16/1
Defoe 4.5% 22/1
Cheval Grand 0.8% 125/1
Salouen 0.3% 300/1
Magic Wind 0.3% 300/1
Hunting Horn 0.2% 500/1
Morando 0.2% 500/1
Norway 0.2% 500/1With more than half this field all under 1% chance in my 100% book, six horses adding up to a combined chance of just 2% (fair 50/1). Unless pace in the race changing things, it’s very unlikely any of those six will place, so it’s almost a 5 runner race paying 3 places, a cracking each way race. AVD is perhaps the most likely to show improvement; trouble is on ability (at the moment) doesn’t appear much between the third, fourth and fifth favourite and they all have a fair bit to find on the front two… ie Odds are those three horses possibly fighting for 1 place. But Crystal Ocean’s chance of a place is massive! And yet in an each way bet 3/1 gets back two thirds of win losses even at 1/5th odds first three… AND his ability rating isn’t much below the favourite, Enable… Enable is 8/13 (62%) compared to Crystal Ocean 3/1 (25%). Has Enable really got 2 1/2 times the chance of Crystal Ocean? I personally wouldn’t even have it as 1 1/2.
Value Is Everythingtbh I’ve rarely come across a race where the state of the ground makes so little difference. Main five in the betting all go well on both firm and soft ground.
Value Is EverythingGlad you confirmed that GT, as I think he’s a stand out price, however just noticed he’s gone 7/2 with William Hill?!
The weather forecast has changed in the last hour to rain all day here tomorrow, some heavy , could be run on soft now
So I see, Frenchy. I think it’s all about the Enable hype. If both horses run to their best can’t see more than a length between them.
Value Is EverythingDo you think it’s the forecast change GT? 12F on soft for Crystal Ocean is not ideal surely? Whereas Enable’s best run came on Soft.
No, Frenchy.
Crystal Ocean is equally effective on soft ground – soft last time out in the Prince Of Wales at least as good as the neck second on good=firm in this race last year. Greater test of stamina soft ground brings could even be argued is an advantage. Would Enable have stayed well enough to be placed in the St Leger?Value Is EverythingI much as I admire CO I see no one getting to the wonder filly
Just another G1 for her to take on route to the Arc.
Do you think it’s the forecast change GT? 12F on soft for Crystal Ocean is not ideal surely? Whereas Enable’s best run came on Soft.
Agree with GT, i’d have thought softer would suit CO probably even more!
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think enable has already reached her career peak and is in decline where as Crystal Ocean is approaching his career peak and is still progressing.
That makes Crystal Ocean a good thing today for me.
Soft in the Prince of Wales helped Crystal Ocean as he’s bloody good over 12f and with it being a 10f race would of put more emphasis of stamina. Sea of Class didn’t go a yard on the going that day and drifted like a barge so gave CO a huge advantage.
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