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The Kim Muir features a fair bit of value in five or six runners, but Emir Sacree is a standout at 50/1 and Fontaine Collonges looks about 10 points too big at 25/1. You have 6 places EW from two different bookies here: Fontaine Collonges should be backed with Bet365 – the only one going 25s, and Emir Sacree with Skybet at 50/1. If you are feeling brave, Hills will give you 66/1 Emir Sacree to 5 places, and will boost it as well to around 75/1. You do lose that 6th place, but the difference in price might well be worth the risk. From this blog’s viewpoint, I will almost always opt for the maximum number of places.
Emir Sacree has relatively few miles on the clock for a 9-y-o. His formline last season -1421- saw him running consistently and finishing with the highest rating he’s received, a rating he then replicated last time when 3rd at Sandown, where he jumped left at times, a trait that isn’t nearly so costly at Cheltenham. He started fav on his seasonal debut, but was pulled up on what looks like an off day given his previous record.
Fontaine Collonges is trained by Venetia Williams, whose yard looks badly out of form – 3% strike rate in the past 14 days. But given the price available, I think that risk is more than accounted for in the price. The jockey will have kept the price on the long side too, but Miss O’Connor has ridden 28 winners and has a strike rate of 18% over fences. Fontaine Collonges is 3 from 7 over fences. She disappointed last time at Haydock (7/2 fav), but had run a cracker to win a good handicap chase there in November. Like Emir Sacree, I am happy to write off her last run as just an off day given the consistency of her formline: 26/115/31/4141-14. You’ll see from that the mare is largely unexposed, and if she is healthy and well lining up, she ought to run a big race.
For supporters of Trumptown, the fav, you might want to note that his top 7 ratings have come at right handed tracks. He has run poorly in two outings left handed.
Rapper for me here. I was impressed with his win at New Years Day here at Cheltenham. The handicapper hasn’t been too harsh. Also a saver on Mr Incredible who could still be very unexposed.
Rapper 25/1 EW
Mr Incredible 6/1Defi Bleu at 66s , first time back at chelt since his third in the Martin pipe , I reckon he’ll love the hill
Defi Bleu was supposed to be my only selection here taking 66-1 ew 6pls
I try not to follow other posters but you make a good Steeplechasing for Emir Sacree and I have taken the 50-1 to win
Full credit to you Joe if that one wins for me
WD Mike
Not sure if Defi Bleu sneaked a place as watched on phone and Racing UK camera panned away after 1st 3!
Got 5th Wilts , I’ve had a better day and that was a nice e.W , all ready for tomorrow with BMG and Might I ,
Well done Mike
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