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While I still think it’s a pity Mr Nicholls didn’t keep Master Minded back for this (would have been about 4s on with his allowance and wouldn’t have had the hard race he endured at Aintree) he might still win the prize with Twist Magic. He was a massive disappointment in the Champion Chase when never going, but after a decent rest he’ll take some beating if able to reproduce his Tingle Creek form on Tuesday. At 3/1 or possibly a bit bigger on the day, he looks a decent bet. His slog at Ascot may have flattened him for the Festival but these conditions will suit well.
Mansony won this last year and loves a flat right-handed 2 miles. He disappointed a bit in the Dan Moore at Fairyhouse though and hasn’t looked as good since Christmas to me. He may well bounce back here and is the main danger. His Fairyhouse conqueror Schindler’s List is favourite but I expect the placings to be reversed on 4lbs better terms: for me this looks a bit of an afterthought and I’m taking him on at the price. Likewise Fair Along, who surely needs further than 2 miles these days- he may force the pace but will have them queuing up to challenge 2 out.
Newmill is a shadow of his former self and the best outsider may well be Gemini Lucy if the ground continues to dry out.The ground is currently listed as yielding. If the ground were genuine good ground then I think Twist Magic would be a great bet but I worry about him now with any sort of give in the ground. He was beaten too easily at Ascot for my liking and at Cheltenham he might as well have stayed in his box for all the impact he had on the race.Just not convinced by him.
Mansony looks sure to run well and Fair Along, though he may ideally require further, given a soft lead might just make them pay because he certainly wont stop they are going to have to quicken past him.
Schindlers Hunt has a fair chance I just wonder if he’s quite good enough.
The others all look exposed and much of a muchness.
Looks a trappy contest to me, might keep hand out of wallet.
If Twist Magic rediscovers his Tingle Creek form he should win but that’s a big if. If he doesn’t then its gets very trappy with most of the usual suspects lining up. A disappointing renewal for the money.
It isn’t a particularly brilliant race, and if the ground is anything close to good then Twist Magic will take plenty of beating.
I can’t see the ground being any softer than when he won the Tingle Creek. Of course his run at Cheltenham is a worry, that’s why he’s 3/1, not 6/4 as his rating entitles him to be. With Gemini Lucy in opposition Flash, there’ll be no easy lead for Fair Along, if he leads at all.
We’ve had a nice mild dry day here today and the forecast for tomorrow is similar. I’d expect the ground to be very close to good by the start of racing.
i really hope fair along wins! he deserves ‘a big one’. 2nd in a triumph hurdle, 2nd in an arkle, 3rd in the queen mum, 2nd in the chester cup, 3rd in the ces. first time binkers might help too!
PN for me knew before the QMCC that Twist Magic simply couldn’t win. If one course was going to find him out it was Cheltenham as he barely gets 2 miles.
With the ground seeming to ne more suitable and the course less testing at first glance he looks to have a great chance here.
The only problem is how fast will they go in the early part of the race and I think the answer lies with Fair Along’s connections.
Fair Along ran into a place in the QMCC as his jockey predicted and he stays further than this. His best chance would be to turn this into a stamina test by setting a very strong pace.
They will be aware of Twist Magic’s weakenesses and I would be very suprised if Fair Along doesn’t attempt to take him off his feet.
That may be easier said than done but Fair Along seems to still retain a fair bit of ability and would be my choice if I decide to have a bet.
Twist Magic regains punters’ faith – and may run (and win again?) at Sandown.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Didn’t surprise me that TM was backed to 6-4 – the race really lacked depth as you guys have said.
Wish I’d had the dosh to have a decent wager on him today. However, I will be flush on Fri and am going to get stuck into one horse at Punchestown. More of that nearer the time…
Hope you peeps made some wonga on TM.
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