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When you have a 100% record, it is folly to put your head on the block. So I have stayed away from betting on the Kentucky Derby for the last eight years. My post on here (05 May 2011, 13:21) about Animal Kingdom at 33/1 was full of skillful analysis and no recourse to luck at all. I do insist about the “no luck” bit. Now I have decided, after such a long time, to place my head on the block. I shall see if I can summon up the same level of luck (Oops! Wrong word – should be skill, skill, skill!) and get Code Of Honor home first past the post at 16/1 (in various places).
Code Of Honor’s advantages are:
From his earliest run, he has always looked a high-class animal. He was one of the favourites for the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but had to be scratched on the day because of a high temperature.
He is trained by Claude (Shug) McGaughey. A trainer noted for for getting horses to their peak on the day that matters. A previous winning trainer of the Derby, and second only to D Wayne Lukas in the number of Breeders Cup winners. Amazingly, Lukas is still training at the age of 83, so at the age of 68 McGaughey may yet wrestle the trophy from him. Many of McGaughey’s recent comments about Honor Code have been about about timing his preparation and race pace.
He has been the darling of the work watchers at Churchill Downs since he arrived about a week ago. He has been labelled the easiest, coolest and smoothest of gallopers, yet belies the cool-dude approach by posting really fast times for a ten furlong horse. “Code of Honor worked a half-mile in a blistering 46.80 seconds over the Churchill Downs dirt, good for second-fastest of 76 (including sprinters) moves that morning.”
His final big plus is his age. Technically he is not old enough to run in the Kentuck Derby because he is still not three years old. His foaling date was 23 May 2016. He has been playing catchup for all of his career so far, and his improvement should be on a faster upward curve than his rivals. For him to have achieved so much already marks him as a very good prospect.
Does anyone else have a view? I used to look forward to the comments from Andyod, Miss Woodford and other posters from the other side of the Atlantic, and miss the style and content of their posts.
Code of Honor is a full nephew of Frankel – nuff said, he shall carry my money also. Tacitus as a backup just because he’s Juddmonte’s…
I don’t know if I would go as far as having a bet here, but I’m certainly looking forward to it.
Omaha Beach looks like a worthy favourite to me. I thought he showed a fine attitude for his last win. I don’t like putting up a favourite if I can help it, but I really do think that he’s a quality animal.
Conversely, Roadster didn’t look like an obvious one for this in his last win, just getting up. That’s maybe being a little harsh, as he’s from a handler who should get that last bit of improvement out of him, and he’s a bigger price at 8-1.
Good luck with your bets.
Thank you for that Botchy, but thankfully I didn’t have a bet. I’d still be keen on Roadster though.
This year’s race looks absolutely wide-open honestly. I doubt there are any Triple Crown winners among them (though I could easily be proven wrong). The three Baffert horses and undefeated Maximum Security are going to get the lion’s share of the betting but I’m partial to Tacitus. He’s on the improve and won the Wood Memorial in a strong field.
Truthfully though I care more about the Virginia Gold Cup card (free live stream here: https://network.theplaidhorse.com/watch/channel/live_1/live/DF8cafHdRbnQ-virginia-gold-cup-live-stream) than the Derby. :)
The stewards’ decision to amend the result was the worst I’ve ever seen in US Racing so far. The eventual winner slightly changed lanes when in front and running on sloppy ground, but it didn’t affect the outcome behind him in my opinion.
Got to agree with you Ruby, the winner won it well and even if there was interference
I don’t think anyone could say it made any difference to the eventual outcome. I feel
sorry for the connections and particularly the jockey who went from euphoria to absolute
dejection. Shocking result.I feel sorry for connections BigG, but what about the connections that were badly interfered with? There were horses that lost all chance. He was the best horse in the race and the second was getting him, but the second was the main horses interfered with!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I take your point Jack, and I’m sure the connections of any horse interfered with will be
cursing their luck. My point is that from watching the race I don’t think the interference
was sufficient that you would be able to say that the result would have been different. It’s
guess work when they are so far from home. I still think that the winner would would have won
regardless. I’ve watched it several times, and he does come a little wide going round the bend,
but he is in front, and there is minimal contact to my mind and I don’t think it had any influence
on the finishing positions.Donald Trump thinks the best horse in the Kentuky Derby wuz robbed. From firefighting to horseracing, there’s no subject that can’t be enlightened by having the great man spew his opinion on it. Mind, he thinks a rough race on a wet and sloppy track is “a beautiful thing to watch”. To each his own. Shining horses on English turf are more beautiful to me.
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