- This topic has 54 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 12 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Interesting that trainer Richard Hannon has branded the relaid surface at Kempton "simply not acceptable".
He said he would be appealing against a £140 fine imposed on him for pulling Caramack out of a Kempton race. There had been 22 withdrawals in two days at the time.
Hannon said: "Caramack is too valuable a horse to risk on ground that the jockeys all agreed was terrible."
He added: "It was far worse than anyone envisaged."As James Willoughby keeps on saying "the figures never lie".
As I have already mentioned, I had the going correction for Wednesday’s meeting at
+0.10s/f
per furlong and I just checked on the Racing Post’s website and Dave Edwards "Top Speed" has the going at
+0.10s/f
, are we both wrong, I don’t think so
Why the Hannon team have a bee in their bonnet about the going at Kempton beats me, the going in the past three days has been nothing but
standard
.
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/fWho could possibly expect the newly-laid surface to behave in the same manner as the old?
If I were an AW punter I wouldn’t moan about the surface’s changed character but relish the opportunity to try and use it to my advantage. Horses that have shown a liking for a Slow surface or those who normally turn out at fluffy Southwell, for example
A fleeting edge exists there somewhere while the track beds in, I’m sure
Naturally, the more disgruntled guff heard from jockeys and trainers the sharper the edge will be for the astute punter wise enough to wear ear plugs
Yeah i totally agree there is an advantage to be gained between all the punters, like a race! ho ho.
I am a all weather punter, however I use trips to gain inlet, where as alot of the lads on the AW use speed figures which are very constant and accurate compared to the turf, but they need to to measure the speed on a surface with a decent size sample to make comparisons.
Are you flat or jumps your self, how do you like to handicap?
Simple question , does anyone know why Kempton did these repairs , surely the track was in excellent condition up to now ???
cheers
Ricky
According to Richard Hughes in the
Post
this morning, it wasn’t in excellent condition latterly – "the kickback had become horrendous", he opined.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Interesting that trainer Richard Hannon has branded the relaid surface at Kempton "simply not acceptable".
He said he would be appealing against a £140 fine imposed on him for pulling Caramack out of a Kempton race. There had been 22 withdrawals in two days at the time.
Hannon said: "Caramack is too valuable a horse to risk on ground that the jockeys all agreed was terrible."
He added: "It was far worse than anyone envisaged."Fines on those trainers who withdrew their horses have been rescinded.
They have been told that in future they will be imposed as everyone now knows the state of the new surface
Simple question , does anyone know why Kempton did these repairs , surely the track was in excellent condition up to now ???
cheers
Ricky
Kempton AW was opened in March 2006 and track material lasts 6 years before replacement or major maintenance required. The polymers, rubber and wax degrade due to the weather and heavy track maintenance, so that it becomes more like loose sand than polytrack. In that state, the drainage starts to get blocked up which means track will be more susceptible to heavy rain and freezing. Kickback gets worse and horses tire on it as traction and rebound lost.
The quality of half information and misinformation is very bad for racing. People who did not know any better have been totally put away by false jockey comments "deep and desperate" and a true betting market corrupted for days 2 and 3.
As I understand it, Kempton have topping up works going on to the Autumn.
What they possibly have done so far is top up the running track half close to the rails with fresh polytrack with added fibre and reinjected wax binder. That makes it easier to compact and adds extra rebound so that times should be maintained or faster. If the jockeys "believed" it to be slow on day 1 they probably raced slow to save horses for a finish. Once they realised nothing much had changed, they then raced normal speed days 2 and 3.It goes to show that listening to trainers and jockeys for factual enlightenment remains very bad for your wealth.
Are you flat or jumps your self, how do you like to handicap?
For over six years now Jumps only, steeplechases specifically
My only experience of AW punting was at Lingfield on the original Equitrack back in the early-mid ’90s where I developed a near-systematic betting strategy utilising Timeform timefigures and draw-bias in sprints, 5f in particular
I did ‘okay’ which is punter-speak for ‘near break-even’
The received wisdom back then was that time/speed figures were particularly useful on AW, and although I wouldn’t know if that remains the case on Polytrack now, The Blues Brother’s estimable counterblast to the weasel words of professional dimwits suggests it does
Never maintained a private handicap, in the tangible numerical weights-and-measures sense, being quite happy to use third-party ratings as an entry point from which I tweak-and-tweak away using largely observation, intuition and a few ‘key’ factors
What on earth has happened to the going at Kempton 13/8/12, I ended up with 2 different going allowances.
On the 6f, 7f and 8f trips I calculated the going as
+0.15s/f
per furlong and on the 1m3f, 1m4f and 2m trips I ended up with
-0.06s/f
What Dave Edwards "Top Speed" will make of this I shall await with interest
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/fSpeed figures:
02:30 Rio´s Pearl 7f 0.15
48
03:00 Caphira 1m4f -0.06
38
03:30 Quintilian 1m 0.15
58
04:00 Saratoga Slew 7f 0.15
53
04:30 Prince Of Passion 6f 0.15
70
05:00 Jamarjo 2m -0.06
70
05:30 Brigadoon 1m3f -0.06
72
Yes, I had it speeding up day by day as well
Over the 3 days I had it as slow 54, slow 37, slow 25
I think they were watering to tamp down the sand………..
I had it back out to ‘slow 35’ today so approx the same as on day 2 of the 3 day meeting last week
I’m not sure that my figures are comparable simply by converting them to s/f but slow 35 would be around 0.25 s/f slow
But I think my base rating is always low so my going allowance is always high……….my final figures at 10 stone…….
02:30 Rio´s Pearl 7f – 48
03:00 Caphira 1m4f – 59
03:30 Quintilian 1m – 62
04:00 Saratoga Slew 7f – 58
04:30 Prince Of Passion 6f – 82
05:00 Jamarjo 2m – 54
05:30 Brigadoon 1m3f – 51@Slowly Away
Looking at your speed figures, I see you had the same problem as I did i.e. a high speed figure for
Princce of Passion
.
Working on a going allowance of 0.00s/f
Prince of Passion
would receive a speed figure of
82
which is an improvement of
24lbs
and if I used the lower going allowance of
-0.06s/f
he has improved
29lbs
and ends up with class 3 speed figure of
87
.
A 4yo horse improving 29lbs, and the second horse home
Plum Bay
improving by 26lbs, I get a red flag situation here, which is quite simply a different going allowance, this part of the track is faster.
When I calculate the going allowances I then analyse the speed figures, are they correct
Yes, BB……….’ve got recent ratings for the first and third and both of them had their last 2 ratings in the 50s so it does suggest that race last night is a rogue figure
I think the RUK boys mentionned a tailwind on the home straight and as that was the shortest race on the card and went round the outer bend then a higher percentage of that race was ‘home straight’………..maybe that accounts for the rogue figure
I’m not that fussed about the odd race that looks odd – Southwell 5f produces loads of them ! – I tend to ignore them for future reference. There’s not that many that you can’t remember them for a few weeks until they drop out of being ‘current form’ then you can forget them
@ Slowly Away
For a horse to improve 30lbs he would need more than a tailwind, a hurricane maybe + a rocket up his ar*e
When I moved onto Ffos Las I ended up with 2 going allowances due to the rain that fell yesterday.
On the sprints I had the going at
-0.40s/f
per furlong and the routes at
-0.65s/f
.
Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55 to +0.63
Good/firm +0.20 to +0.53
Good -0.25 to +0.18
Good/soft -0.55 to -0.28
Soft -1.00 to -0.58
Heavy -1.58 to -1.03Speed figures:
02:20 Orpha 6f -0.4
78
02:50 Miss Cap Estel 1m -0.65
41
03:20 Camrock Star 1m -0.65
54
03:50 My Meteor 5f -0.4
69
04:20 Rigolleto 6f -0.4
66
04:20 Masai Moon 6f -0.4
65
04:50 Little Dutch Girl 1m4f -0.65
70
05:20 Alborz 1m2f -0.65
69
Lingfield is also being relaid after Saturday night’s mixed AW/turf meeting
Only God can help us now.
Prince Of Passion ran a uncontested ground saving perfect trip. Was the high speed figure assisted by this?
The answer is more than likely yes, and the probability of Prince Of Passion running a similar time when contested for a lead is unlikely in my opinion.Well I was shocked when I read the going allowance + the speed figures for "Top Speed" from last Monday’s meeting at Kempton.
Dave Edwards has a going allowance of
0.04s/f
and it looks like the speed figures have been manufactured to suit, the speed figures published do not correspond to a going allowance of 0.04s/f, I will explain.
Using
Caphira
in the 3.00 and
Prince of Passion
in the 4.30 he has the following speed figures:
3.00 Caphira
59
4.30 Prince of Passion
70
Now using the going allowance of 0.04s/f you should see:
3.00 Caphira
30
4.30 Prince of Passion
79
His going allowance of 0.04s/f is down the middle of what I said i.e. -0.06s/f and +0.15s/f.
The only positive I can take from this is that we both agreed that
Prince of Passion
ran to a speed figure of
70
.
I said that there was a problem with the going at Kempton on Monday, it looks like I was right
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.