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11/8 huh!
Is it ok if I post 100 pages myself while your sleeping and do you have 11 million quid I need a new helicopter
Fist,
Well if (in your own words) "he certainly wasn’t stopping" – then how can you describe Denman as "finding next to nothing" in the same breath?
What the hell did you want the horse to do on the short run-in after the last?
He jumped the last 2.5L clear and won by 4L – in fact, I’m probably correct in thinking that he finished further ahead of every horse in the race at the line, than he was over the last. How can this be finding nothing?
The fact is, Denman was sprinting well before the last, jumped it, and kept on going right to the line, pulling further clear with every yard he covered. Like I say, that’s not the sign of a finding next to nothing. A better example would surely be The Listener perhaps, in last years Hennesy.
As everyone has said, the Lexus wasn’t run to suit Denman but people are still trying to crab that effort. It is possible to be a Kauto Star fan, and acknowledge what Denman has achieved at the same time you know.
If you really think that he didn’t find anything after the last, then you’re a worse judge than what I thought you were Fist. But it’s all about opinions of course, and I fully respect yours while not agreeing with it.
Mike
sorry, forgot to mention. If you are going to use BOS as the horse to back up your arguement then you are contradicting yourself, as you are referring to the distance Denman was in front of BOS from the 3rd last – I thought you said Denman found nothing from the last, not from the 3rd last, so how can you use BOS as the 3rd last to back up what you are saying?
Can I point out here that if someone takes a price for this getting to 100 pages he could write any crape to be on a certainty.
Value Is EverythingWhere will Kauto Star go after blitzing his rivals in the Gold Cup? Here’s my hypothetical list:
Dubai World Cup – Paul Nicholls has him entered for this prestigious event on 29th March if he returns from his Cheltenham exertions in fine form.
Lockinge – After destroying the best dirt horses in the world it’s time to step back in distance. Manduro can count himself very lucky he won’t have to take a battering.
Ascot Gold Cup – Alternates between courses. Also takes the 2m4f chase course just to give the others a chance.
July Cup – Will drop back 14f to tackle the fastest horses in the UK.
Nunthorpe – He can beat the best over the minimum distance with little fuss over fences, why not try his luck on the flat.
Arc – No problem. Even takes time away from his busy schedule for a day trip to Auteuil – childhood memories.
Japan Cup – Decides to bypass Santa Anita (too much congestion) and go straight to Japan. Apparently he has a full brother that lives in Tokyo who he hasn’t seen in a long time. The race is used as a prep race for an attempt at a third King George. Denman is also invited as a ‘sorry for whipping your ass’ apology.
Where will Kauto Star go after blitzing his rivals in the Gold Cup? Here’s my hypothetical list:
Dubai World Cup – Paul Nicholls has him entered for this prestigious event on 29th March if he returns from his Cheltenham exertions in fine form.
Lockinge – After destroying the best dirt horses in the world it’s time to step back in distance. Manduro can count himself very lucky he won’t have to take a battering.
Ascot Gold Cup – Alternates between courses. Also takes the 2m4f chase course just to give the others a chance.
July Cup – Will drop back 14f to tackle the fastest horses in the UK.
Nunthorpe – He can beat the best over the minimum distance with little fuss over fences, why not try his luck on the flat.
Arc – No problem. Even takes time away from his busy schedule for a day trip to Auteuil – childhood memories.
Japan Cup – Decides to bypass Santa Anita (too much congestion) and go straight to Japan. Apparently he has a full brother that lives in Tokyo who he hasn’t seen in a long time. The race is used as a prep race for an attempt at a third King George. Denman is also invited as a ‘sorry for whipping your ass’ apology.
dont forget the 1mile handicap Laytown Beach!!!
I’ve just had an afternoon nap, and dreamt about this effing thread
So far that reason, I’m not even going to visit this thread again until after the race. I have nothing more to say on the subject, other than to say it’s going to be a cracking race if all the main contenders get there in one piece.
Mike
Can I point out here that if someone takes a price for this getting to 100 pages he could write any crape to be on a certainty.
1/100 that this is the daftest post in years…
I wonder how comfortable Kauto will be, being extended to the extent that Denman seems likely to do in the GC. If I had to bet on one or the other, I think I’d opt for Denman. Maybe it’s a good job I I don’t.
(Just moved it to this thread, as it seems more specifically related to it).
- Total Posts 17716
Grimes
Wouldn’t be too sure that he can extend Kauto Star, or Exotic Dancer for that matter?
Nothing he has done so far wouldn’t have easily been within both horse’s capabilities and, in KS’s case, with a deal more panache.
He may be the great white hope but, at the moment, that’s all he is.Fist,
Well if (in your own words) "he certainly wasn’t stopping" – then how can you describe Denman as "finding next to nothing" in the same breath?
What the hell did you want the horse to do on the short run-in after the last?
He jumped the last 2.5L clear and won by 4L – in fact, I’m probably correct in thinking that he finished further ahead of every horse in the race at the line, than he was over the last. How can this be finding nothing?
The fact is, Denman was sprinting well before the last, jumped it, and kept on going right to the line, pulling further clear with every yard he covered. Like I say, that’s not the sign of a finding next to nothing. A better example would surely be The Listener perhaps, in last years Hennesy.
As everyone has said, the Lexus wasn’t run to suit Denman but people are still trying to crab that effort. It is possible to be a Kauto Star fan, and acknowledge what Denman has achieved at the same time you know.
If you really think that he didn’t find anything after the last, then you’re a worse judge than what I thought you were Fist. But it’s all about opinions of course, and I fully respect yours while not agreeing with it.
Mike
sorry, forgot to mention. If you are going to use BOS as the horse to back up your arguement then you are contradicting yourself, as you are referring to the distance Denman was in front of BOS from the 3rd last – I thought you said Denman found nothing from the last, not from the 3rd last, so how can you use BOS as the 3rd last to back up what you are saying?
That was additional Mike did you note the disatnce from the last? I don’t think so or you wouldn’t have written what you did.
Mike and I am not contradicting myself at all. Are you a solicitor by any chance?
I did say the horse wasn’t exactly stoppin and I did say he found next to nothing.
And he wasn’t stopping but he wasn’t going anywhere either. He never picked up and Ruby tested him to the full to see if he could.
IT doesn’t take much imagination to work out where Kauto Star would have been at the 3rd last and how easily he would have cruised up to Denman………I think I am just about safe in saying he wouldn’t have been 2 1/2 lengths behind Denman. You tell me how much more would Denman have to have found then to win the race then? And from where would he have found it? I doubt if he would have even won it if Exotic Dancer had been in the race never mind Kauto.
Denman is a big flashy horse who looks the part doesn’t mean to say he is.
I used the proximity of BOS to point out Denman’s winning distance was a combination of him going forward and the others, apart from BOS going backwards……not of him sprinting away from them. Like two planes passing in the sky mate gives you the impression you are travelling faster than you are
BOS was 3 ½ lengths behind the other two at the last and finished right on their tails being eased well before the line……….. he was fully 6 lengths behind Denman when Denman landed, maybe even 7 and BOS would lose 1/2 length in the air the way Denman jumps …..BOS was beaten 5 ½ lengths approx….Denman as I said never picked up at all. He was totally exposed at Cheltenham a couple of years ago by Nicanor as being one paced over hurdles. You don’t all of a sudden sprout wings in this game Mike. Denman is a very good horse but I am convinced in top class he will be found out as being one paced. What you see is what you get with him. He has never had to find that extra gear this year because he has met nothing of KS or ED’s standard. He has been long odds on against weak oposition no less than 8 times, He won an awful Hennesy where I know the 3rd was no where near fit and beat horses in Ireland would get within 20 lengths of KS at the weights.
Actually I Thought his most impressive performance was on Saturday…He’s good ok but he is not GREAT!!! and he is no Gold Cup horse IMO at least not while Kauto and ED are around.
.Anyway you think I’m a bad judge and that’s your prerogative…..Could I be wrong?…you could bet your life on it…….so let’s just wait and see what happens to Denman when he hits rising ground at Cheltenham……taking it of course that the 3 main contenders get that far.
This is probably going to sound obvious, but the burning question for me in run to the Gold Cup is : how good is Denman ?
Sure , he won the Hennessey in good style, but it is my guess that this victory wasn’t as good as many were making it out to be. Imho, the only other horse, apart fror Denman, in the race running off a decent handicap mark (Snowy Morning ) fell – the others weren’t a well- weighted bunch, in my opinion. From there he won a muddling race in Ireland ( his victims included The Listener who was slammed out of sight in last year’s Gold Cup) and that particular race, due to the nature in which it was run, is probably unreliable as a form guide.. Last Saturday saw him return to Newbury, only to face a field of horses way off Gr1 standard.
Without getting blinded by the visually impressive nature of his successes, it is my honest opinion that Denman level of form so far is a little way off true Gold Cup standard and that he’s needs to improve ; his form is behind Exotic Dancer’s, in my estimation. What is in Denman’s favor, though , is that he hasn’t really truly been tested and improvement is a real possibilty.
If he can find the improvement, then he could well be a huge danger to all. But if he can’t and Exotic Dancer reverts to his normal waiting tactics – I can’t believe he (ED) will be ridden the same way as he was at Kempton again – then Denman may not finish in the first two on the big day, in my opinion.
Another worry with Denman, for those of us who factor in speed ratings into our collateral form lines, is that he hasn’t, as yet, put in a performance that remotely threatens Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.
For what it’s worth, the percentage call for me is Kauto, plus a small exacta with Exotic.
This race cannot come soon enough.
Grimes
Wouldn’t be too sure that he can extend Kauto Star, or Exotic Dancer for that matter?
Nothing he has done so far wouldn’t have easily been within both horse’s capabilities and, in KS’s case, with a deal more panache.
He may be the great white hope but, at the moment, that’s all he is.If you think that Denman’s performances represent exactly how good the horse is and he has absolutely no scope for improvement, then you can make a (rather unimaginative) case for Exotic Dancer having a chance against him.
Bizarrely, I think Denman is being underhyped at the moment. I price up races every single day of the year and when you see unexposed and unbeaten chasers run against more exposed horses that they have ,say, 5 or 6 pounds to find with, they are routinely priced as favourites to beat them. The market is hugely pro-Kauto Star at the moment and I find it rather amazing that Denman is still available at 2-1 in the Gold Cup.
I find it rather amazing that Denman is still available at 2-1 in the Gold Cup.
Me too, i also find it amazing that Exotic Dancer is still available at 12-1
- Total Posts 17716
TDK
Maybe that’s my trouble – I’m not imaginative enough?
I think your problem is that you are treating Denman as if he is an exposed horse. If he hasnt run a fast time, it is because he hasnt yet been asked to, if he hasnt strinctly run to 180+ it is because he hasnt needed to while still pulverising the opposition.
The old maxim "back horses to do what they have done before" only works in markets that tend to overrate the unexposed horses. That isn’t the case here.
I am sure you have all by now run this race over in your heads a million times by now, and i presume we would agree that Denman will (unlike last year) ensure that KS stamina is tested to the full by kicking on around half way!
IF the above tactic works and Denman beats Kauto i have convinced myself KS does not finish the race, if KS chink is exposed as stamina i can see mistake at one of the last two fences or even KS being pulled up.
Therefore a bet on KS not being placed would be?
Brave or stupid or both?
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