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I think he’ll do himself in by the time he jumps the last and will not get up the hill………..once he’s done his thing, their nothing left in the engine with Denman, he has no reserves.
I was wondering that when watching the AON, although he seemed to win effortlessly he was blowing very hard afterwards, we have only ever really seen Denman off the bridle once or twice in his life, one of them was the race he lost. When push comes to shove will Denman still have reserves??
And its like AP said once, its one thing racing up against Kauto Star, its another thing getting past him, imo if Denman gets headed any time after the second last, he will fold up and wont get his head in front again during the race.
Only time will tell i suppose…
How good a horse is should be measured on performance, not consistancy. Though Kauto has had that so far as well.
Denman does have all the qualities needed to beet Kauto Star, if able to improve another 7lbs or Kauto fails to stay (quite possible).
Bar when making mistakes at the last fence, and needing the race in the Old Roan, Kauto has looked "in trouble" once. When beating Exotic Dancer in the Betfair, at Haydock over a truly run 3m on soft ground. I thought on the day he may have idled but has never done so before or since. That was the biggest test of stamina Kauto has faced, more so than a slowly run 3m2f110yds on good.
Not saying Kauto won’t stay just it is possible he will be outstayed by Denman.
Value Is EverythingFound next to nothing for Ruby after the last in the Lexus will find even less at Cheltenham. He has to kick after jumping the 3rd last and if that doesn’t shake off Kauto then he’s in big big trouble.
Lexus was a comparatively slowly run race Fist, it was more about speed than Denman likes. A strongly run Gold Cup will be a lot different and play to his strengths.
Value Is EverythingFound next to nothing for Ruby after the last in the Lexus will find even less at Cheltenham. He has to kick after jumping the 3rd last and if that doesn’t shake off Kauto then he’s in big big trouble.
You’re not related to Nicky Mackay are you Fist?
I love these "found absolutely zero" (Mackay’s comments) and "found next to nothing" comments about horses who actually pull further clear.
FWIW Fist, Denman jumped the last about 2.5L clear, and won by 4L in the Lexus. After three miles, if that’s ‘finding nothing’ then I’m your uncle
Mike
I’m no fan of Harry Findlay but he was spot on about the Lexus
Findlay sometimes sounds like a man inclined to bluster, but that is a deceptive impression. Although his opinions on the sport are sometimes couched provocatively or with little apparent art, he really knows what he is talking about. His description of Denman’s victory in the Lexus Chase was typically punchy but straight to the point.
“I’ve heard people say he wasn’t impressive. If they think that, they don’t understand racing and what makes horses look good one day and unimpressive the next,” he says.
“With the benefit of hindsight, Ruby Walsh should have gone on when The Listener slowed the pace down after the third. It probably helped Denman that he didn’t have a hard race, but he could have been more impressive.
“People who know race times and the clock, they know what I mean. Trainers and jockeys are sometimes too close to the game to fully appreciate it tactically. I recognise their professionalism and knowledge of horses, but, when you’ve had a bet, all you care about is the horse being ridden the way that suits it best and suits the opposition least.”Here we go again, the same rubbish as last year – Kauto Star doesn’t jump well enough, he won’t stay etc etc. What a load of nonsense!!
When are people going to appreciate this horse and realise that he’s an absolute freak – a perfect blend of insane speed and sufficient stamina to stay an extended 26F.
His victory over 3 miles on soft ground in last years Aon Chase was proof at the time that he would stay the Gold Cup trip. After a huge blunder at the last, he managed to outstay L’Ami – it was obvious then that the further they went, the more he responded. Furthermore, he wasn’t exactly stopping in last years Gold Cup!!
His jumping record is nearly impeccable. One fall in fourteen is hardly the form of a horse who is a bad jumper. John Francombe is one judge who I listen to. He’s absolutely spot-on when he says that, despite the mistakes Kauto Star makes, he never looks like falling. It will take a huge blunder, or sheer bad luck to bring this horse down at Cheltenham.
The deciding factor will be speed. Ask yourself, could Denman beat a QM Champion Chaser over 2 miles? I don’t think so. It’s often been said this season that Denman hasn’t even been out of third gear. Again, ask yourself, does he possess anything higher? It was quite clear in the Lexus that there probably isn’t much more to come. He went away again once challenged in the style of horse who merely outstayed his rivals – it was workmanlike rather than scintillating.
Don’t get me wrong, I love the horse. His jumping, size, power, front-running style – a proper staying chaser. What I don’t like are people who invent reasons to justify a horse winning or losing.
It’s true that Kauto Star could fall in the Gold Cup. It’s also true that he could get brought down, or worse, breakdown. The same applies to every horse in the field – that’s NH racing for you.
But it’s irrational to think that Kauto Star has a greater chance of falling. One fall in fourteen is about 7%. He’s jumped right-handed, left-handed, on flat and undulating tracks, over a variety of distances, coming off a strong and slow pace – please, don’t critisise his jumping.
He’s five-from-five over 3 miles and has claimed victory in his only attempt at further – please, don’t say he won’t stay.
Denman will need to improve to beat both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer. Kicking King will need to come right back to his best to trouble the market leaders and improve again.
My idea of the first four:
1st Kauto Star
2nd Exotic Dancer 4L
3rd Denman 2L
4th Kicking King 1LJames a Q if i may
Your well taken by Denman, so why is your firm not best price Kauto???
Findlay was right. It would have been virtually impossible for Denman to win in truly impressive fashion in Ireland given the way the race was run. To crab him on the strength of it is simply ridiculous.
The pace of a race makes a huge difference to how visually impressive a performance is. It’s going back a while now but Old Vic provides a very good example. Having won a minor race first time out at three he then went off 9/4 on in a three-horse race for the Classic Trial at Sandown and raced in second off a very steady pace. It took him an age to wear down the front-runner and although he won he was crabbed all over the place for the style of his victory. The general view was that he was a bit slow. Next time out in the Chester Vase he didn’t even go off favourite but Steve Cauthen – a jockey who really understood pace – rode him much more aggressively, leading 6f out and winning emphatically in course record time. His next outing was the French Derby and he took it up after a furlong under Cauthen and routed the opposition by seven lengths and eight.
Still favour Kauto Star. Denman looked good but he beat a horse rated 150 only giving him 6lb, you’d like to think Kauto would win equally well, though given his way of running, maybe not as far. Biggest concern I have for Kauto is whether he truly gets 3m2f up the Cheltenham hill. Last year was run at such a crawl, that question was never answerred, you’d think Denman will make sure its a true test.
The question whether Denamn could beat a QM champ over 2 miles is irrelevant. He’sll beat KS over 3 and a quarter at Cheltenham on Gold Cup day. That’s all that matters.
Ruby Walsh three out – "Come back Sam"
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The question whether Denamn could beat a QM champ over 2 miles is irrelevant. He’sll beat KS over 3 and a quarter. That’s all that matters.
Not really. Both Denman and Kauto Star stay the Gold Cup trip – KS just has superior speed. That will be the difference at Cheltenham.
It’s going back a while now but Old Vic provides a very good example. Having won a minor race first time out at three he then went off 9/4 on in a three-horse race for the Classic Trial at Sandown and raced in second off a very steady pace. It took him an age to wear down the front-runner and although he won he was crabbed all over the place for the style of his victory. The general view was that he was a bit slow. Next time out in the Chester Vase he didn’t even go off favourite but Steve Cauthen – a jockey who really understood pace – rode him much more aggressively, leading 6f out and winning emphatically in course record time. His next outing was the French Derby and he took it up after a furlong under Cauthen and routed the opposition by seven lengths and eight.
Old Vic had a problem with boils on his back that made putting a saddle on him very painful.
A true hero of a horse
I appreciate you are passionate about this but can I give an opposing view? If I was going to back Denman to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, I personally could’nt give a monkeys whether or not he couldn’t win a Tingle Creek, the visual improvment he’s made over fences in or around the Gold Cup trip would be enough for me not to worry about that. As for Kauto, yes your right,(as is most of what you’ve wrote) there is only a small percentage chance of him putting in a howler, but in what should be a race run at break neck pace it’s not beyond the realms of possiblity either. I remember that blunder in the 06 King George when he was actually in full stride and for that reason if I was a backer i’d like to see how he fairs at Ascot one last time bearing in mind it’s only 3 weeks before Cheltenham. As for Exotic Dancer coming second, what you have to ask yourself is, can he improve on what he done in the Betfair at the start of the season? For my money Kauto most certainly will or already has, and i’m not so sure Exotic will necessarily improve on his betfair run in a proper run race round prestbury so therefore there is a big question mark against him. Put it this way, he has a damn sight better chance than Iris’s gift did a couple of years back.
It’s great to see how much this race means to some people as I personally am of the view I might never see a clash of this magnitude between two jumps horses again, I will have to buy a tape machine within a month!
Hi, Marb
Very true about Kauto running only three weeks prior to the Gold Cup. However, I don’t think Mr. Nicholls would risk the horse if he thought it would be detrimental to his chances at Cheltenham.
I made a comment on page 2 of this thread explaining why I believe Exotic Dancer still poses the biggest danger. I’m surprised it hasn’t come under greater scrutiny.
In asking the question ‘Could Denman beat a QM Champion Chaser over 2 miles?’ I was illustrating the superior speed Kauto Star has compared to Denman, which, as I believe, will be the deciding factor come March.
Quite right. We should all be grateful we’ll be here to witness such an epic contest.
Borsanic you said,
"Not really. Both Denman and Kauto Star stay the Gold Cup trip – KS just has superior speed. That will be the difference at Cheltenham."However, Kauto Star stays the Gold Cup trip when the pace is slow but has not proven that he stays the trip in a strongly run race Borsanic. That is not opinion it is a fact. I am not saying he won’t stay, just he might not.
I am a great fan of Kauto Star and rate him the best since Dessie, possibly even better. But sentiment does not come in to it, facts are facts.
Speed should not come in to it if Thomas does his job correctly, and goes a level pace.
If you were to give me Evens both horses in a match race (Gold cup course and distance on good / good-soft going) I would go for Kauto Star (only just). But he is not the same price. At current prices, I would keep my money in my pocket, but if you forced me to back one it would have to be Denman (at the price).Value Is EverythingAgree about the trip and Kauto not being a proven stayer, but that is the only doubt for me with him. His jumping has improved and he’s clearly got the class. For Denman fans, there has to be a doubt as to whether he’ll turn up hasn’t there? £1m is a lot of money and is more than a third of what a Champion jumps trainer will win in a season. Add to that the order of merit prize and does it make sense to put that at stake, even with different owners?
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