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Fists, I am becoming convinced that you are getting paid for every mention you give to Kauto Star.
Have you asked PFN if you can sleep with the horse?
Colin
Ok you sussed me but don’t worry your cheques in the post
FoF
Surely the golden question is whether KS can finish as strongly off a more searching pace than he did last year?
There are certainly reasons for doubt.This is the one concern I have for Kauto Star. I believe he has the ability and class to handle this scenario but as we’ve not really seen him tested this way yet then it’s still a question mark for me.
Denman warrants respect on both of his runs this season but I think the real question is how does he deal with Kauto and ED on GC day? He doesn’t appear to have the turn of foot to be dropped in late so the obvious tactic is for him to set a blistering pace far out and attempt to outstay his rivals. Whilst this should work for the majority of the field I don’t think it’ll work for Kauto or Exotic Dancer. I’m a Kauto fan though so I’m biased
The Gold Cup has the potential to be a classic considering the contenders – I can’t wait
I don’t think your biased I think you are taking what you’ve seen with your own two eyes and reading it the way it is… but then I am biased
I just can’t see Denman taking Kauto of his feet..nothing in the race has done so, so far and the only horse to give Kauto any kind of scare is ED which makes the betting bordering on stupidity…rather be on ED ew than Denman at 2/1 any day of the week
c) Kauto Star 2007 covered the last three fences in good to soft ground within 1/2 a second of the time recorded by One Man on good to firm ground.
d) Both Desert Orchid and One Man were vigorously ridden over the last three fences in there races. Kauto Star did it on the bridle for the most part and Ruby was not hard on the horse at any stage.
e) In the 2006 race Kauto Star ridden out was almost 3 seconds faster than Desert Orchid over the last 3 fences again both were running on good to soft ground. I double checked my times on a fence to fence basis and I would say they are fairly accurate.
I would have Kauto at around 5 to 7 lengths superior to them both on his 2 King George victories. I base this on not only the times but the finishing speed that Kauto Star had in reserve in the latter"It’s probably as well to beware literal time comparisons between the ‘old’ Kempton chase track and the ‘new’ (opened Oct 2006) which had much work done to it whilst the AW track was being built, notably one less fence per circuit and a crossing over the polytrack.
Not entirely sure but I’d guess drainage work and re-seeding/re-turfing took place, and new fences built from scratch. And quite possibly the inside rail was shifted, hence race distances may not be quite the same as they were.
None of which is intended as an attempt to belittle Kauto Star’s performance: a towering run.
Are you coming back from Thailand to watch the race, Fist?
I’m not sure that either is guaranteed to run in the race, but, of the two, I don’t see Denman as being much inferior to KS at CHELTENHAM.
The course, with its hill finish, will be the key, imo.
Jonjo/McCoy are my chosen combo for this year’s Gold Cup.
Sean Rua.
If you have Kauto Star so far clear of Denman, FOF – a point stunningly backed up by rock-solid and irrefutable time evidence
– then surely the ‘clash of the titans’ you describe will not come to pass?And can it be considered a coincidence that this thread, like so many others, is fit to burst with references to your connections within the industry?
Some how I think not…
Sean asked if FoF is coming back from Thailand to watch Kauto Star….
Coming back to watch it, he’s coming back to ride it I think
Mike
Totally agree with Drone, different course, turf, partly all weather. The 3rd last is in a different place and the fences are not as stiff. Different pace too. Can not compare time performances at all.
Kauto’s performance was awsome, but that was on a sharp track over 3 miles. 3m2f on a stiff track, possibly on soft ground, might be different.
Last years Gold Cup was run at a funereal pace. The first 4 home all having form at 2m4f. That may have played into the hands of Kauto Star. Kauto Star has yet to prove for certain that he stays a truly run 3m2f. In my opinion he probably will stay it but we do not know yet. Probably the stiffest test of stamina he has had so far was when scraping home in this seasons Betfair Chase, 3m on very soft. His Gold Cup form (on good going) is some way short of his two king Georges, did not have to be at his best. Is he the same horse on good going as he is on softish? Again imo yes, but we do not know for sure.Denman has a fair way to go to beat Kauto Star on form. I was there to see him pulverise his field in the Hennessy. Did it in tremendous style, but it was not a Burrough Hill Lad performance, the field was nowhere near as good (particularly with the favourite falling). That is not to say he will not be as good, in time. I think those backing Denman are backing potential more than form. He is an exceptional looking specimen and still improving (needs to). The slowly run Lexus did not play to his strengths. There is still a slight doubt as to whether Denman is as good on good going. Did win the Sun Alliance on good but has improved on soft since. That is probably due to experience and strengthening up, but we do not know that yet. Will he be given the ride to beat Kauto Star? To my mind his best chance of beating his stable companion will be to set a searching gallop. But that will also be the best chance of Nicholls coming away without the winner. So what will the orders be, will Denmans jockey be allowed to go all out to win?
I backed both Kauto Star and Denman (made a loss on the four days) ante-post for their festival wins last year, but will wait until nearer the day this time.
Exotic Dancer was not at his best in the latest King George (stable in very poor form and change of tactics). Everyone knows his record against Kauto Star, but that being the case, may well represent a value bet. With punters dissmissing his chance. I beleive he was a little flattered in the Betfair, flew the last where as Kauto slowed, then Kauto possibly idled in front. But is there as much between them as the betting suggests? He stays the trip well, acts well on the course, equally effective on good or heavy. Would not be surprised to see him split the Nicholls duo
If I backed anything ante-post at this stage it would have to be Exotic Dancer, or possibly Halcon Genelardais (and hope for an overly strong pace on heavy going).Value Is Everythinghave to agree ginger about exotic dancer being the best value in the race ,he made kauto fight all the way in the betfair chase and has very good cousre form,a true run race will test kauto and if ap can produce him will stay on up that hill .well thats how i see it but kauto is still going to be a tough nut to crack.
In all honesty I have the same nagging doubt in my mind as you Ginge.
The thing about Kauto is if he ran over 2 miles tomorrow he would more than likely still win. Distance seems to make little difference to him but that is not natural.
The Gold Cup turned Desert Orchid into a decisively ordinary looking horse when he won it and there was no Denman or Exotic Dancer that year. Arkle was beaten rather easily when dropping back to 2m4f when Bonna Notte beat him in the Masssey Ferguson. Simply most horses have a trip that brings out the best in them, change it and you change the horse.
It is the fact that Kauto seems to handle all distances equally well and his devastating turn of foot that prompted me to say Kauto Star is the best Steeple chaser since Arkle second to none.
You rightly point out that last years race was run at a slow pace and that will certainly not be the case this year. PN certainly wont give nay quarter to Kauto by telling Sam to take it easy on Denman he will run his normal race, just don’t expect to see him tearing off at a million miles an hour. Denman will most likely run the race exactly the same way as he did in the Lexus. Sam will allow him to do things in his own time then slowly turn the tap on from about 7 from home. The pace will be much faster than the Lexus but Denman will keep himself in the first 4 or 5 on the first circuit without being asked to he’s just that type of horse.
Every other horse in the race will be aware of two things, don’t get too far behind Denman when he goes and the only way to beat Kauto is take the sting out of his tail, so no matter what makes the running the race is going to run at one helluva pace and if ever a race was going to find out Kauto it’s the Gold Cup.
However Kauto always travels well in his races and there is no man better tan Ruby at puting him to sleep. The horse hardly knows he’s in a race until the last quarter mile and he won so easily at Kempton he looked like he could have gone another circuit.
In all the races I have seen Kauto in he has such a high cruising speed he never gets too far behind in his races and that will be one big worry to Denman. He is going to have to burst Kauto and he may end up bursting himself instead and it could be him found wanting after the last.
He found nothing in the lexus when Ruby went for him after the last and was left standing in the novice hurdle at Cheltenham a couple of years ago. If he is going to win the Gold Cup he better be well clear of the field at the last. If anything is within a length of him I know which horse I would rather be on. ED would eat him alive for toe and we all know what Kauto can do
Everything to date about Denman is visual there is no form line to suggest he is within a 7lbs of Exotic Dancer never mind Kauto Star. Kauto could give the Listner a stone and beat that field in the Lexus more impressively than Denman did.
We simply don’t know how good Denman is ( but you can bet your ass Ruby does) and there are far more doubt about him being Gold Cup class than there is Kauto or Exotic dancer. We already know they are but Denman is something of an unknown quantity and a ridiculous price for the Gold Cup.
Of course he could prove a ridiculously good price for the gold Cup if he does an Arkle and runs everything into the ground……IMO he is going to have to be every bit as good as "Himself" to do that and I just can’t see it happening but will be the first to congratulate him if he does.
However the fact remains this is, without doubt, his toughest task to date. Not just because he has to beat Denman but because he is either going to go into the history books as the best horse since Arkle, or as a very good horse who didn’t get the gold cup trip in a true run race……..we will find out soon
In answer to your question Sean "Is a pigs ass pork?"
Sean asked if FoF is coming back from Thailand to watch Kauto Star….
Coming back to watch it, he’s coming back to ride it I think
Mike
Get your facts right Mike, I wanted to ride Denman and stop the fooka
The Gold Cup turned Desert Orchid into a decisively ordinary looking horse when he won it and there was no Denman or Exotic Dancer that year. Arkle was beaten rather easily when dropping back to 2m4f when Bonna Notte beat him in the Masssey Ferguson. Simply most horses have a trip that brings out the best in them, change it and you change the horse.
The trip had nothing at all to do with Desert orchids relatively ordinary form at Cheltenham. He won the whitbread and irish national….
It was simply the difficulty he had travelling left handed.
Kauto is possibly slightly better left handed but the requirement for one way or the other is nowhere near as marked as it was for Dessie
Which made his Gc win on ground he hated, even more incredible. And it remains the best moment in racing for me
Sean asked if FoF is coming back from Thailand to watch Kauto Star….
Coming back to watch it, he’s coming back to ride it I think
Mike
Get your facts right Mike, I wanted to ride Denman and stop the fooka
Fof.Mind you, you wouldn’t have to stop Denman if your as confident about KS as you make out
– I really hope your confidence is not misguided FoF, for your sake and mine lol.
Mike
ps: I’m not having a dig FoF, I think your confidence, and mentioning of KS in every post you write is quite refreshing lol – keep it up
Best Mate won three Gold Cups but what did he beat?
Without him we would have had three of the worst Gold Cup winners ever.
Just because a horse wins the so called best race of the season, does not mean it was great form. Form is one horses performance measured against his rivals. Not what races he won and how many times.
His form was barely, if anything, above that of Florida Pearl.Value Is EverythingI would have backed Best Mate against Florida pearl anytime…most definately at Cheltenham
A 6 year old Best Mate got very close to FP (at FP’s peak) at Kempton and of course, BM held a couple of decisions over him after that
Florida Pearl never stayed 3 1/4 miles so never ran to form in a Gold Cup.
Kauto Stars form in the Gold Cup is not as good as his King George wins.
I wish Turpin Green had won the Gold Cup, had over 200/1 about him.
I think Timeform over rated both Best Mate, and Kicking King for that matter. I believe both best ratings were based on one performance that in my opinion have not worked out as well as they seemed at the time.
Not that I wish to knock that great company as they are my Bible.
Value Is Everything
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