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Interesting angle on the worse case scenario there Fists. With 12 months to go until the race, I’d have said the worse case scenario sees a Kuato setback and a non-appearance, meaning you’ve done double your cash by backing him EW.
Marb – Why do you need Paul Nicholls to come out tell you Kauto Star ran below form. There are far better judges of the form book on here than what Nicholls is that have already told you that.
Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?
I don’t think he would. He’d probably run to somewhere around 173 whereas Kauto would run to around 179 – 180 (generally).
People tend to get a bit carried away not least the official handicapper. Distances, going – both make a difference. Denman is a big powerful galloper, Kauto is more speedy. 3 miles 5f Denman wins easily, 2m 4f Kauto wins easily.
What WOULD be a real race is a 2m4f race between Kauto and Master Minded. Tough to call that one.
3m 5f on the ground that was the gold cup, denman win easily? i think not lol, denman was out on his feet
Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?
I don’t think he would. He’d probably run to somewhere around 173 whereas Kauto would run to around 179 – 180 (generally).
People tend to get a bit carried away not least the official handicapper. Distances, going – both make a difference. Denman is a big powerful galloper, Kauto is more speedy. 3 miles 5f Denman wins easily, 2m 4f Kauto wins easily.
What WOULD be a real race is a 2m4f race between Kauto and Master Minded. Tough to call that one.
3m 5f on the ground that was the gold cup, denman win easily? i think not lol, denman was out on his feet
He was entitled to be he upped the pace and went for home a long way out. No horse can retain top gear for ever.
Would Denman have beaten Kauto Star in the King George? Would not that be the real test of his greatness?
I don’t think he would. He’d probably run to somewhere around 173 whereas Kauto would run to around 179 – 180 (generally).
People tend to get a bit carried away not least the official handicapper. Distances, going – both make a difference. Denman is a big powerful galloper, Kauto is more speedy. 3 miles 5f Denman wins easily, 2m 4f Kauto wins easily.
What WOULD be a real race is a 2m4f race between Kauto and Master Minded. Tough to call that one.
3m 5f on the ground that was the gold cup, denman win easily? i think not lol, denman was out on his feet
He was entitled to be he upped the pace and went for home a long way out. No horse can retain top gear for ever.
all im saying is saying that he would ‘easily win’ is rediculous, he would have to of done alot more than that to beat kauto at 3m 5
Some interesting points/observations made within this post.
My view is that on the day Denman was a better horse than Kauto. Denman jumped and travelled brilliantly throughout the race whilst Kauto just didn’t look his usual self. There are many possible factors why Kauto didn’t run to his best but there should be no excuses.
Is Kauto finished? exposed? etc etc….. NO, in my opinion Kauto will be back. It would be stupid to suggest a horse with Kauto’s ability is suddenly finished.
As for Denman, I’m surprised and impressed with him. I thought he was more hype than ability but he has proven me wrong. However, I don’t suddenly think he’s a better horse than Kauto because he beat him one time. I acknowledge he is our champion and that he is the horse of the moment but I hardly think things are over between these two.
Not sure about the ”French bred” argument.
Ive been lucky enough to run in flapping races and work in racing stables over the years,and was always led to believe they are thinner boned and were at there peak between about 5-8,Irish/Brittish breds are that bit stronger and matured at an older age.
Theres always exceptions to the rules…..
Unless the ground comes up a genuine Good-Soft or better, Kauto won’t get near Denman in the GC again. That doesn’t make him 5lbs worse than Denman. I’d completely agree with those who say the ratings drawn up are hasty, and I think the treatment of Master Minded has also inflated them indirectly.
FWIW, according to my ratings Denman’s run in the Gold Cup was 3lbs better than anything Kauto has achieved this season, although Kauto still had more in the tank by the end in the KG than Denman did on Friday IMO.Theres always exceptions to the rules…..
Edredon Bleu for starters.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
i for one would not back back kauto star next time.i want to see how well he does in the race.might be best to leave him until next year
May well be repeating so apologies if so…
My hunch is that last week’s ratings are too high.
Kauto’s got a solid book of 175+ ratings whereas Denman has to repeat his Gold Cup against similar yardsticks to truly merit his lofty rating.
The poster who suggests VPU as a 163 horse has it spot on for me. If anything Master Minded deserves 180++! 186 seems too high for a standalone race.
Interesting angle on the worse case scenario there Fists. With 12 months to go until the race, I’d have said the worse case scenario sees a Kuato setback and a non-appearance, meaning you’ve done double your cash by backing him EW.
Marb – Why do you need Paul Nicholls to come out tell you Kauto Star ran below form. There are far better judges of the form book on here than what Nicholls is that have already told you that.
A non apperance woudn’t help that’s for sure
He’s still a young horse and hopefully will still be around for a few years yet but who knows.I noted what said about doing double my cash so I backed him again at 5/1 which is still on offer with Cashman’s.
I think he is outstanding value if he and Denman run next year he’ll be no more than 7/4 on the day……In fact the next time he runs if he runs anywhere near his best he’ll be 5/2…….top and bottom of it is it’s a dumb bet unless of course he wins the renewal then it’s a cracking bet…
And Marb I don’t think I need to go to a web site to look at Denman or Kautos form and as far as Paul NIcholls is concerned he either tells porky pies or he’s the worst judge in the country…….he said before the QMCC he couldn’t split MM and Twist Magic……..yeah right PN only about
3 stone between them….. hardly noticible
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