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Yes because its Sublimity with the more to prove…..
Not at all, Katchit still has a lot to prove, i just dont think Sublimity will win the CH again.
Just had a little look at Sublimity’s record and unless he gets soft ground it seems you can put a line through him – no watering this year please!
Because I think he’s got to improve a stone to win an average Champion Hurdle…
That might be an average Champion Hurdle in the era of Night Nurse, Sea Pigeon, Monksfield et al.
Triumph Hurdle has again been under-rated in some quarters, IMO.
Thought TIDAL BAY looked good for a novice having his first run,despite these fences looking easy they certainly catch out their fair share!!
The Mildmay fences are anything but easy, be assured! I can’t think of a course as sharp as this one in Britain that maintains such stiff obstacles.
Add to that the better quality of horses running round here compared to, say, a Stratford or Cartmel (that’s my quote of gratuitous mentions of the latter met for this week, AP – do I get a prize?
), and the yard or two quicker they go, it’s no wonder that there are as many spills as there are. God willing, I don’t think any of this weekend’s have been serious / fatal, unless anyone knows otherwise.But yes, be that all as it may, Tidal Bay posted a very decent first effort over fences. One Jump Ahead‘s interview with Howard Johnson has him down as still mulling over whether the gelding is an Arkle or R&SA aspirant. Today won’t have cleared up the matter, but then I doubt that that was Priority A today – a good, clear round was. I expect the tinkering with the trip for him will start next time out.
Alberta’s Run jumped about as well as my fridge here, and for all that he handled the Mildmay perfectly well in winning a Listed hurdle in April, I think he needs a return to a more galloping chase course pretty toot-sweet.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
It wasn’t soft at Cheltenham on March 13th, Stilvi, despite what the official description said.
So what do people fear outside of sublimity and katchit? I wasn’t going to say anything in case I looked like a smart arse but I backed Sublimity at 8s and Katchit at 14s back after Cheltenham in March. Am I entitled to be feeling confident…. I just think there is a long time to go still, but would take my bet on Sublimity if i had to lose one of them.
Katchit is a tough little bugger a real professional but I am unconvinced of his class for a Champion Hurdle. I think he needs to improve a lot to be a serious contender.
May as well answer my own question. Only two horses have won the Triumph by further since the race became a level-weight event in 1973. Scolardy was nothing like so robust as Katchit and ran just 3 times after. Oh So Risky finished a close second in the Champion Hurdle the following year. Katchit recorded an excellent time at Cheltenham.
That suggests to me, winning Triumph Hurdle has little or no relevance on winning Champion Hurdle next season
I think you need to look at say the first 6 home in the TH, where each horse finished in the CH , how far they were beaten etc
This would then probably tell you if the TH has any relevance on the CH
The triumph is a different race now. Not the wild end to end gallop it once was maybe.
In fact the form these days has to be the most useful pointer towards a new contender, especially if hes slaughtered the field by 9 lengths.
forgive me if i missed any as i’ve done it very quick
Last four year
First 6 home in TH to then run in CH
DC x
Afsoun 3rd
Fassel XPenzance fell
TH don’t look a good guide to CH on that small sample
That is precisely what it is! A very small sample
Afsouns run was a decent blow for the form and the supposed 5 year old hoodoo IMO
Yes Clive a small sample, but
I find it interesting that no winners of TH have won CH and the small sample i’ve just done shows race has little relevance also
The reason probably is, that TH winners would be say at best 150 horses and therefore need to improve a stone or more next season to win the CH
It seems not many do find the improvement needed, this could also be why 5yo’s don’t do so well also
Would be interesting to see a better sample though
The triumph was a very hard run race which often seemed to leave its mark on runners and was thus avoided (perhaps) by some top trainers.
But with more alternatives, that is not the case now. Smaller fields and now simply the top novice prize.
Take it at face value (i always think that in this game the bleedin obvious is often overlooked..) for what it is
There is this stat about 5 year olds and the CH and the physical development angle may be relevant. But Afsoun ran well last year and stats are just stats sometimes
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