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Haven’t seen anything that impressive in a juvenile hurdle since Our Conor.
Either that is a huge boost to the credentials of Vauban, or Pied Piper has improved to the point he should be a short priced favourite for the Triumph.
Elliott hinting he will be heading to the Supreme to be kept away from Fil Dor. BH – how do you think that run yesterday compared to the likes of Constitution Hill?
BUY THE SUN
Catterick Bridge hosts the next one and, while eagerly awaiting BH’s tome, at the prices Monsieur Pom Pom is my feeble offering.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m sure I have plenty of thoughts on recent events but this week has seen a new shift pattern at work as well as the passing of a dear friend. Absolutely not fishing for sympathy btw since I have been processing it with the friends still here, the one that went back to the universe would find such things utterly unbecoming and I have no doubt in my mind that I will be decent soon enough. Just a disclaimer as to how I am not really with it at the moment. I have done a preview for the Scottish Triumph although it was written on autopilot so whether it is any good is anybody’s guess…
MUSSELBURGH (Scottish Triumph) – 6th February
Since Dalaram won a maiden on this card in 2004, en-route to taking Chepstow’s Free Handicap in the Autumn, each subsequent juvenile hurdle at Musselburgh at this meeting has contained the word “Triumph”. While a conditions race until attaining listed status in 2014, the contest was titled the “Triumph Trial”. Though it had only really been a ‘trial’ in name only, Carlito Brigante, Sametegal and Hargam (winners in 2010, 2013 and 2015) would finish fourth, third and third again in their respective Triumph Hurdles. Orsippus, Starchitect and Project Bluebook reached the frame both here and in the Fred Winter with the first named joined by We Have A Dream in subsequent winners of the Anniversary at Aintree. Comfortably and consistently the strongest juvenile hurdle held in Scotland, its simpler title of “Scottish Triumph Hurdle”, adopted in 2020, is a perfectly apt designation. This season’s renewal features just one Triumph entry who also happens to be the sole newcomer to the sphere. Nevertheless, five previous winners with respectable form make for a competitive affair with the field rounded off by an Iain Jardine flat winner who attempts to keep the prize in Scotland for just the second time; James Ewart’s Vosoges being the only previous Scottish trained winner.A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh’s average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97% and the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, those having their first run at the venue have won 56.25% of the races. Nevertheless, 31.25% of the winners have previously scored at the venue with such horses having a 59.41% strike rate. While there is just one confirmed front runner in the field, a couple of others have raced prominently in the past. Neither of these are short of pace so an honest gallop looks likely without there necessarily being a risk of an easy lead. The going has most recently been described as good, good to soft in places. However, the aniticpated steady showers, including those of a sleety nature, could see some ease in the ground before post time.
Triumph Odds
Innatendue 66/1 (80)Fred Winter Odds
Malakahna 25/1
Calvados 33/1
Impulsive One 40/1
Inca Prince 50/1
Sonning 50/1Bulls Aye chg Iain Jardine f10-1-1 (70) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 64 58
Intello (Shamardal){14-c}(1.07) 2/1 Think Ahead 1st 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2017
The only Scottish trained runner in the field, Bulls Aye’s sole flat success came at this venue where he landed a seven furlong novice auction stakes in September 2020. His best piece of form in that sphere came on his three-year-old return when he was third over the same trip in a June handicap off 78. However, while he was consistent enough on his remaining five flat outings last year, he was unable to reach the frame and appeared not to stay on his sole start beyond a mile. Given a break of a couple of months, his attention was switched to juvenile hurdling. Though the records of his sire and trainer in the sphere are no better than fair, Bulls Aye is a nephew of a couple of winning hurdlers. The dam is a full-sister to Think Ahead, and a half-sister to Duke Of Sonning who won as a juvenile in 2015. Making his jumps bow in an introductory hurdle at this venue in early December, Bulls Aye was sent off an unfancied 28/1. Taking a keen hold while restrained towards the rear, he made mistakes at the third and fourth before finishing a tailed off fifth of six. He was last seen at the start of the year when last of seven in a Newcastle handicap where he also raced keenly. Bulls Aye’s flat class would be respectable in ordinary company. However, he appears to be stretched by even sharp tests over hurdles and his inability to settle will further compound an already difficult task here.Impulsive One bg Nicky Henderson f9-1-5 (79) 83 j4-2-2 (127) 116 129
Union Rags (Lonhro){4-m}(1.77) 2/2 El Picador 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2019
Winning one of his eight starts for William Haggas, Impulsive One had shown useful form on the flat at up to twelve furlongs. Making the switch to Nicky Henderson, he built on that foundation over hurdles with wins of twelve lengths at Plumpton, and ten lengths at Huntingdon on his first two outings. He was more impressive at Plumpton as he was able to settle better when given a lead. Nevertheless, there was much evidence of speed, neatness and enthusiasm on each occasion as he travelled strongly without ever looking in danger. Impulsive One’s third outing came at Kempton in mid-October and though slightly uneasy in the ring, drifting from 4/7 to 5/6, he was still sent off the clear favourite. Without getting a lead in the four-runner field, Impulsive One was again forced to make his own running which was not ideal given his headstrong nature. Notwithstanding, his hurdling was his most polished to date and he was still on the bridle approaching the penultimate flight. There he made his only real error as he went through the top, but it did not cost him any real momentum and while he did not have enough to fend off Knight Salute’s challenge on the run-in, he was still able to put nearly seven lengths between himself and the Alan King recruit in third. Given that he was conceding four pounds to the winner, seven if one accounts for the claim of the aforementioned’s talented rider, Impulsive One emerged as best at the weights which in turn, is still one of the strongest British performances seen in the division this term. Having undergone a wind operation, he was able to match this performance in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster two months ago. The yielding ground was as soft as he had encountered to that point over hurdles and he opened at 8/1 in the morning. His price had halved by post time and while still fresh, he comparatively well and posted a very neat round of jumping. Tracking the leaders throughout, Impulsive One travelled strongly to make his challenge approaching the penultimate flight. However, though he jumped the last within a length of the lead, and passed Porticello shortly after, he could not match Knight Salute’s turn of foot and lost second to Porticello just before the line. He was only beaten by a length and while he was in receipt of five pounds from the first two, the form was given a strong boost later in the month when Porticello landed the Grade One Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Impulsive One was last seen at Wolverhampton thirty days ago racing in a fourteen furlong handicap off 80. He was unable to justify 6/4 joint favouritism, placing fourth of fifth, although the entire field did get first run on him from a slowly ran contest. Interestingly, he is set to be Nicky Henderson’s sole representative at this meeting and this is a contest the yard has won three times from its five runners. Incidentally, his cousin El Picador won once and placed second twice at Musselburgh as a juvenile before unseating in the 2020 running of this contest. Impulsive One has the strongest form in this field, should get a lead, represents a trainer who likes to win this race and may find further improvement around this circuit. He will likely prefer the ground not to deteriorate but if it holds then his prospects would be strong.Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j5-2-2 (121) 122 125
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1 but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short’s arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince’s third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies’ race at Aintree the next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick in December. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. Inca Prince’s returned eighteen days later for a fair contest at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day where he was a steady 5/2 third favourite of six. He was fairly keen early but set a strong pace which saw him enter the back with a dozen length lead. Though challenged by Collingham between the final two flights, his rival faded on the run-in; leaving Inca Prince to score by a driven out seven lengths despite slowing during the final furlong. The runner-up was beaten fourteen lengths off 100 next time, but Collingham (who was probably below his best here) did finish second in the Chatteris Fen before easily winning at Catterick on Friday. Inca Prince does not have a great deal to find at the weights and has the benefit of experience around Musselburgh. Furthermore, he is unlikely to be pressed too strongly for the lead, nor should he be inconvenienced if the heavens open.Sonning grg Alan King f7-1-2 (76) 81 j4-1-2 (116) 110 115
The Gurkha (Rainbow Quest){8-d}(0.56) 3/2 Diakali 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2013
Costing 80,000 guineas in the 2020 Craven Breeze-up Sale, Sonning was not disgraced when lacking experience in three outings as a two-year-old and made a winning return from his winter break at Beverley in mid-April. Running in a ten furlong, good to firm handicap off a mark of 71, Sonning raced off the pace and although it took a while for the penny to drop, he weaved his way through traffic before running on gamely to win by a neck from Mark Johnston’s Happy. He failed to win during three further flat spins, but still got his head down to run to his best when denied second by a head at Leicester. From the first crop of The Gurkha, Sonning distaff side counts little in the way of immediate hurdlers, although the first one that shows is the top class Diakali at 3/2, who was also a very accomplished juvenile hurdler. Winning jumpers Diamond Frontier, Diamond d’Amour and Diamond Kut also appear at 3/2 while Divapour can be found at 3/3. Sonning started his hurdling career with a flat rating of 76, and those trained for both codes by Alan King, particularly with such a mark, generally do well in the division. There was strong market confidence before his Wincanton bow that saw him go from a morning show of 11/8 to 1/2 at the off. Attempting to separate Adrian Heskin’s arms from his torso, Sonning was held up in touch for much of the contest. He was still travelling well enough turning into the straight, but an untidy leap two out cost him valuable momentum and with the race out of his reach after the last, he was allowed to coast home upwards of five lengths clear of the remainder. Sonning was able to get off the mark at the second time of asking at Catterick a month later. He started at evens in a contest where the course and good, good to firm ground will have been ideal. Taking a keen hold behind the leaders, he pulled himself to the front by the first in the back without taking himself into a clear lead. Travelling strongly, it was only in the straight where he began to assert and after a brief shake of the reins, he would coast home by eleven lengths. Very little can be said of the form but other than skewing a couple of times early on, satisfaction could be derived from a slick round of jumping. Sonning next appeared in mid-December at Plumpton for a novice hurdle against older horses. Easy during the morning exchanges before starting at 3/1, he was keen as he tracked the leaders early on, before moving into second passing the stands. Sonning went into the lead going down hill in the back and was still travelling well as he entered the straight. However, his hurdling became rather untidy and though he maintained his position when challenged between the final two, Sonning weakened after the last and finished third; five lengths behind the front pair. Returning to Wincanton eleven days ago, he made the switch to handicap company, running off 119. He was especially keen while held up towards the rear and was untidy on several occasions. Slight headway was made on the cross section but made no further impression prior to finishing a thirty-one length fourth. Sonning is capable of winning more races over hurdles and could find himself well handicapped if he finds a sharp enough contest in time. However, he will need to learn how to settle better in the meantime and the ground is unlikely to be dry enough for him here.Calvados bf John C McConnell f7-0-1 (52) 62 j5-1-3 (-) 111 115
Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
An improving, if still modest maiden on the flat, Calvados would be the first Irish representative of sire Vadamos, as well as the first produce of Nathaniel’s broodmares to partake in juvenile hurdles. In a Ballinrobe maiden back in August, Calvados got three careers off to the perfect start. Backed from 6/1 into 10/3 second favourite, she jumped nicely for a debutant and ran out a comfortable five and a half length winner. After finishing third at Navan on a return to the flat, she filled the same position on her next two hurdles outings at Listowel and Punchestown. Both times she found herself behind Bell Ex One, but had ran to a respectable level on each occasion. At Listowel, she kept on to split Realist (a subsequent hurdles winner in America) and Inca Prince, while at Punchestown she emerged better at the weights than runner-up Sea Sessions with the trio nineteen lengths clear of the remainder. Calvados would follow Sea Sessions to Aintree for a listed fillies’ contest in early December. Held on bottomless ground, the pace was slow from start to finish. Racing close to the lead throughout, Calvados made minor errors but was better when the pace picked up somewhat along the back. She jumped the last alongside the leader and though Sea Sessions stayed the better of the pair, Calvados was able to hang on for second. Her latest appearance came in the Grade Two at Leopardstown over Christmas where she started an unfancied 33/1 outsider. Held up towards the rear off a steady pace, Calvados met with blocked paths just as the race unfolded on the home turn where she would probably have found herself outpaced in any event. She kept on but a large jump at the last put paid to any aspirations of finishing closer than an eighteen length sixth. John McConnell has had two winners from five in Musselburgh juveniles which is in keeping with his 31% strike rate with all runners at the course where he had another winner on the Saturday. He saddles two in this contest and while stablemate Innatendue holds the Triumph entry, Calvados has the services of Sean Bowen who has had ten wins from thirty rides for the yard. There is a bit to find with a couple of the geldings but her weight allowance would throw her into the mix and if the ground does go any softer, pedigree and racecourse evidence suggests that Calvados could be in her element.Innatendue bf John C McConnell b4-2-2 (-) –
Spanish Moon (Sleeping Car){u}(2.00) 1/0 Trotot 1st 4000m 5&6yo Conditions Chase, Le Lion d’Angers 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/innatendue-1
The sole hurdling debutant in the field, Innatendue joined John McConnell after a €100,000 private sale at Arqana in the Autumn. Racing exclusively in bumpers to date, her career started with Etienne & Grégoire Leenders; a yard responsible for two winners (Dandy Mag and Ronde de Nuit) from three exports. Innatendue’s debut came in an early August, 2400m fillies race at Le Lion-d’Angers where she started the 6.9 third favourite of nine. Switching on and off the bridle in midfield, she crept closer with half a mile to go and though she made a meal of getting to the front, she got the lead at the furlong marker before holding on by a neck. Nothing behind her has managed to win since, but the form of her next two outings is substantial. Though she still looked very slow the following month at Craon, it would be harsh to detract from her effort in chasing down Il Est Divin (second in a Groupe II next time) to half a length. In October, Innatendue finished third in a Groupe III at Moulins where she ran in a similar fashion behind Ile O Vent and Ingrandes. This pair would finish fifth and fourth in the Groupe I bumper at Saint Cloud, but not before Innatendue managed to beat the latter in a Groupe III at Durtal at the end of the month. It was a well contested multi way battle from the moment they entered the straight and Innatendue had her head down at just the right moment passing the post as she would have placed second or third a stride either side of the line. Though tying into some high strands on the AQPS circuit, the fact the first eight were covered by less than four and a half lengths does detract from the form. Nevertheless, Innatendue has shown a decent attitude to go with her patent stamina. Insofar as hurdling is concerned, Innatendue has some credentials in the pedigree. Two of Spanish Moon’s six British and Irish juveniles have been winners, uncle Quimperial won a three-year-old hurdle while cousin Desir du Large finished third in the Johnstown novice. However, Spanish Moon’s winner to runner rate with three-year-olds in France drops to 10% and his highest rated offspring in that country have been chasers. Furthermore, while hurdlers do appear on the damline, there is a heavier lean towards chasing. The dam gained both of her wins over fences as did half-brother En Temps Voulu, while the two other winning siblings did so in cross country races. Bonaniversere Papa (2/1) was a winning chaser, the useful Gondleen and l’Artiste Francais (both 3/1) showed their best form over fences while Chriseti (3/1) was a leading light in cross country. Innatendue’s entry in the Triumph does not escape notice. However, the yard has a more feasible candidate in Calvados, its first time strike rate is a low one, and everything about the profile suggests that even if Musselburgh was ploughed before racing, she would still find things happening too quickly.Malakahna bf Ian Williams f2-1-1 (-) – j3-1-1 (115) 109 116
Manduro (Dalakhani){1-h}(0.33) 2/1 Dariya 1st 2m1f Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (102), Newton Abbot 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/malakahna
Ian Williams made four acquisitions at the Arqana Deauville Sale in July with Saint Riquier going on to place in pattern company. The next of the quartet to be seen was Malakahna who was introduced in a fillies’ contest at Fakenham in late October. Ian Williams had only had one previous winner from his seven juveniles imported from the French flat, although this was also his other sourced from Christophe Ferland who, incidentally, won first time out. Malakahna, who cost €40,000 in the aforementioned sale, made her debut in a 2300m newcomers contest at Tarbes in May where she ran on to finish just under eight lengths third behind animals rated 92 and 80. She got off the mark on her second outing the following month in a 2400m Toulouse maiden on soft ground. Shaping like an absolute plodder, she needed the entirety of the straight to bridge the length gap between herself and the leaders before crossing the line a quarter length to the good. Nevertheless, the form looks reasonable with the next two being subsequent winners rated 75 and 72 with the trio over five lengths clear of the remainder. Befitting the racecourse evidence, she has a stout pedigree which is also suitable for her new discipline. Manduro has a strong 32% winners to runners rate while damsire Dalakhani is solid at 22.58%. The damline is teutonic in nature with the granddam being a half-sister to Davidoff and Denaro, while Don Cossack appears further back at 4/3. Though her credentials were solid, the sharp nature of Fakenham’s circuit looked unlikely to play to Malakahna’s strengths and she started the race at 12/1. Settling in mid-division, she stayed out of the well contested battle at the head of the field and as the leaders dropped away during the final lap, she loomed alongside Aliomaana on the cross section. Her rival was persistent but she had given best by the time they turned for home and Malakahna was ridden out for an eight length win with the remainder a distance behind. The form with the runner-up is decent although given the way the race transpired, she was perhaps flattered by the ease of her success. Her hurdling also left something to be desired as she completely missed the first, was tight at the fourth, stumbled after flattening three out and pecking at the last. Malakahna was given an opportunity to show her class in the listed fillies’ hurdle at Aintree on Becher Chase day where she was sent off the 11/2 second favourite. Ridden prominently out wide in a very slowly ran affair, she clipped the first and got in close to the third, fourth and sixth. Though still in contention entering the straight, she was somehow outpaced at the distance and a fairly laboured one paced to the line, finishing a seven length fifth. Malakahna was last seen at Sandown a month ago for a four-runner class 3 contest where she started the 15/8 second favourite of four. Held up in touch off what was a reasonable pace in the heavy ground, her jumping was marked by steady and sometimes careless jumping. While an early departure and an unfit non-stayer assured Malakahna of at least a second place finish, she had absolutely no answer when the winner pressed on at the distance and left her thirteen lengths in his wake. Malakahna would not be completely out of this on her best form, and she may well be content whatever the conditions or pace composition. However, this would also give her less scope for improvement and she does have to account for her below par outings where her jumping left plenty to be desired.tl;dr
Bulls Aye – Sole Scottish trained runner in the field. Won on this track on the flat but failed to progress and looks a doubtful stayer. Failed to show on hurdling debut and continued inability to settle will likely exacerbate an already tricky assignment.Impulsive One – Flat winner for William Haggas who was fast and nimble when winning minor events at Plumpton and Huntingdon. Found out by Knight Salute at Kempton and Doncaster but showed improved form which sets standard in this contest. Sole runner at meeting for top yard which has won this race three times. Has strong prospects if the ground holds.
Inca Prince – Promising flat career ended with whimper but has been rejuvinated by hurdles. Unlucky not to win at Gowran on second start and Irish form was enough for him to make all and run out emphatic winner at Catterick on British debut. Made all over course and distance last month and while that race was run to suit, the time was still decent. Course form an asset and should give good account although this may be tougher.
Sonning – Winner on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise when scoring at Catterick. Fair effort in Plumpton novice before moderate show in Wincanton handicap. Plenty of speed and capable of jumping well. However, will likely need the sharpest of tests to be seen to full effect at this juncture.
Calvados – Modest but improving maiden on flat who made winning hurdles debut at Ballinrobe in August. Failed to score since but placed next three outings in good company before being unsuited by how Leopardstown Grade Two unfolded. Something to find but weight allowance will help and conditions may bring out further improvement. Jockey booking an interesting one for yard with good record at venue.
Innatendue – Yet to race over hurdles but two wins and two places from four French bumpers. Form has strands in high levels of AQPS scene although she does look decidedly slow and will probably find this too sharp first time.
Malakahna – Respectable form on flat in France and won on British debut at a Fakenham which looked unlikely to suit. Race rather fell apart for her there however, and she failed to justify her initial impression at Aintree and Sandown. Not without a shout at best but questions over her latest efforts, and her jumping, loom large.
If Soft side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Calvados
Reasonable prospects
2. Impulsive One
3. Inca Prince
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Innatendue
5. Malakahna
6. Sonning
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls AyeIf Good side of Good to Soft
Strong prospects
1. Impulsive One
Reasonable prospects
2. Calvados
3. Inca Prince
Feasible prospects
4. Sonning
Moderate prospects
5. Malakahna
6. Innatendue
Negligible prospects
7. Bulls AyeYou were missed, BH!
Impulsive One for me – I shall wait on the ground regarding your excellent dual-eventuality analysis.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I cannot see beyond Inca Prince.
But that is probably simply my flawed logic in evidence.
Sonning at a decent price is not without hope.
1st Inca Prince
Calvados
Sonning.Emboldened by getting a winner for once, I think Galah might be the one in the 1.00 at Ludlow on Wednesday.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Galah hadn’t ran so poorly at Doncaster then I would be more interested in her seeing that Ludlow would feasibly catch out IdJ. However, without any obvious excuse and no real lay off since (same for Angels Landing), IdJ will probably have the race set up for her and should have the class to see these off if they’re not going to post new career bests.
Doncaster’s race on Thursday looks a little more interesting but I would be very surprised if a preview was forthcoming as I am meeting a friend after work tomorrow… Such is life. Still, it’s nice that we finally get to see Ile de Jersey…
Abandoned last season, Ludlow’s fillies’ juvenile hurdle is set to be hosted for the fifth time having been established in 2017. The average winners’ seasonal RPR of 114.88 essentially matches the standard at the venue. Castafiore and Miranda, who won in 2017 and 2019, would eventually score in Grade 2 company over fences and hurdles respectively. However, insofar as juvenile attainment is concerned, its most accomplished graduates were Hillcrest Fire and Via Delle Volte – who would reach the frame in the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham’s fillies’ meeting having finished unplaced in this race. Save for the Nicky Henderson debutant, this year’s renewal looks to be of a typical standard as the more exposed participants have shown fair form while the unexposed entries do not have a huge amount of scope. A sharp, slightly undulating, right-handed circuit, Ludlow’s winning DIs of 1.29 median, 1.50 mean, are in the higher third of British racecourses with its clear round and completion rates being very close to standard. Of the six set to face the starter, only Angels Landing has made the running over hurdles and that happened on just one occasion, although it was over this course and distance so a similar scenario may be in store. The latest going description was good to soft and with little more than drizzle and a gentle breeze expected in the morning, the field will not be subject to an especially searching test of stamina.
Galah bf Milton Harris f12-4-5 (72) 83 j4-1-2 (112) 101 109
Australia (Invincible Spirit){14-c}(0.68) 2/1 Counsel 4th Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Ralph Beckett is amongst the more prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers to the division with fifty-five leaving Kimpton Down Stables to go hurdling since 2004/05. Fourteen of these have been winners, a healthy rate of 25.45%, and while just 25% improve for the switch the bulk of these do bring higher than average flat ratings. One such horse is Galah who finished her two-year-old season with a Thirsk nursery win to her name, and a rating of 81. Her second campaign saw her mark drop nine pounds and though she was not beaten far in four of her six outings in handicaps, a tendency to pull and hang right did compromise her efforts. Consequently, she changed hands for the relatively modest sum of 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Milton Harris team that has been flying this season. Her pedigree is an encouraging one for the game as Australia and Invincible Spirit have solid records as sire and damsire respectively, with their descendants often maintaining their flat form over hurdles. Uncle Counsel was a useful juvenile hurdler who finished fourth in a Summit Hurdle while Cinders and Ashes (3/2) and Minella Rocco (4/2) also appear on the damline. Galah’s hurdles bow came in a quite well contested introductory hurdle at Newcastle on the Fighting Fifth card. Starting at 14/1, she raced keenly while held up towards the rear of a tight and steady bunch. She held every chance at the distance but though she was quite readily left behind by the two experienced rivals, she fared best of the newcomers, finishing upwards of three lengths ahead of the remainder. Her round of jumping was lightly tarnished by slight, novicey errors but was satisfactory on balance with her only real mistake being an awkward jump three from home where her path was impeded by a rival. She was out again a fortnight later at Cheltenham where her starting price of 28/1 suggested she may be overfaced. Galah was still quite fresh racing in the rear, but the hood and tie did see her travel more comfortably. She made a couple of positions going down the hill and turned into the straight with a fighting chance. The leader was able to get first run and after another not-bad round of hurdling, Galah’s steady jump at the last cost her a stride or two of momentum. Nevertheless, while the first and second were out of sight, the latter an easy winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, she was able to plug on for an honest third ahead of better fancied rivals who, to some degree, met trouble in running. Galah’s next appearance came in a fillies’ maiden at Doncaster over Christmas where she set a clear standard and was accordingly sent off the even money favourite. Held up towards the rear off a modest tempo, Galah only had one behind turning for home where the leader stole a march. Nevertheless, she was able to make steady headway in the straight and after jumping into the lead at the last, edged out a length victory on the run-in. Given the way the race unfolded, the performance can not be said to match her efforts at Newcastle or Cheltenham but she did not have to be at her best in any case. Galah returned to Doncaster for a listed filles’ contest two weeks ago. The Irish raiding party set a tough standard, but Galah was still disappointing and ran according to her drift in the market from 5/1 during the morning to 12/1 at the off. She settled reasonably well in the rear and there were no major complaints to be made about her jumping. However, she had no response when asked for her effort three from home and the gap between herself and the principals would only grow throughout the straight. With Archie Bellamy taking off seven pounds, Galah has solid enough prospects at these weights. Nevertheless, she was given to unaccountably poor showings on the flat and while these were invariably atoned for, it was usually done so after a longer break.Ile de Jersey bf Nicky Henderson j2-1-1 (-) – 118
Night Wish (Nononito){1-b}(0.54) 0.5 Friary Rock 1st 2m4f Beginners Chase, Wexford 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ile-de-jersey
Nicky Henderson is one of the stand out trainers of juvenile hurdlers and his record with French imports bringing hurdling experience is an impressive one. Since 2004/05, twenty-five of thirty-five such horses won during their initial campaigns and count amongst them accomplished sorts such as We Have A Dream, Peace and Co, Top Notch, Grandouet and Fusil Raffles. For all the transfer activity that has been taking place since the Spring, the yard’s first such recruit is a fairly recent acquisition in Ile de Jersey. Beginning her career with Patrice Quinton, whose five previous exports have yielded one winner in Cyclop, Ile de Jersey first saw the racecourse in early July when she took in a 3,700m contest at Sable. Taking in fifteen flights and tracking the leaders throughout, she jumped well over the first four flights, before making her first errors; trailing her hind legs through the fifth and completely missing the sixth. She was tight but better at the next and while she was early at the eleventh and rather missed three out, her overall hurdling was perfectly acceptable for a newcomer. She finished second to another debutant in the Macaire trained Ixia, who comes from the family of Azertyuiop and Bipbap, and was twenty lengths clear of the third who recently broke her duck in a Machecoul claimer. Ile de Jersey’s second outing came over an additional 100 metres at Vittel where she jumped very neatly and made only a minor error at the fifth. She led the pursuit of the runaway leader and after effortlessly passing him on the turn for home, won the race by fifteen lengths and a distance without having to be extended. Although the form of this contest amounts to very little, the second and fourth have managed to break their maidens. With her races coming over longer distances, it is no surprise that Ile de Jersey is not bred to be a speedy juvenile. Sire Night Wish, group class at up to twelve furlongs in Germany, is having his first crop of juveniles but is already off the mark with two winners in France. While not the most accomplished racehorse, this giant son of Sholokhov has a classic German pedigree (which also includes Melon at 4/4) and has the credentials to be a useful jumps sire. Ile de Jersey is out of a winning chaser at Saint-Brieuc who has also produced the prolific cross-country winner Dunquin, and is herself a half-sister to three other winning jumpers. Given her profile, Ile de Jersey does not look like an obvious speedy juvenile type and Ludlow on decent ground may be leaning on the sharp side. Nevertheless, she does have a good jump in her, she easily caught the clear leader at Vittel with a couple of furlongs to spare and her form sets a clear standard. Furthermore, in terms of sourcing, it could be interesting that she was ridden last time by a Felix de Giles who is very familiar with the Henderson operation that sent Punjabi and Doubly Guest to make winning debuts for the yard at Ludlow around this time of year. Ile de Jersey does have to prove her fitness, although the yard invariably have their French hurdles recruits ready to go straight away with their first time strike rate being a very healthy 57.14%Angels Landing bf Ian Williams f6-1-3 (71) 76 j5-0-4 (100) 101 107
Fascinating Rock (Pivotal){7-a}(1.77) 5/3 Binocular 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Having failed to make the track for Richard Fahey, Angels Landing started her career with Ian Williams in mid-June, running consistently and placing three times on her first five outings before getting off the mark in an eleven furlong Kempton handicap in October off 67. Representing the first crop of Fascinating Rock, but with a threadbare damline, Angels Landing started 5/2 joint favourite on her hurdling debut at Ludlow early the following month. Held up in touch and jumping abysmally, she was one paced in the straight before finishing a near five length third of seven. Her next outing came in a fillies’ juvenile at Leicester where she was warmly fancied 13/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, she was still given to novicey errors but there was a definite improvement in her hurdling. Always close up, she went into a narrow lead on the approach to two out and though readily beaten by the winner, she plugged on well enough to finish two and three quarter lengths clear of the remainder. This marked a step up on her debut, although the form was nothing out of the ordinary and her venture into pattern company next time at Aintree amounted to little. Starting at 33/1 having opened at 12/1 in the morning, Angels Landing raced in the rear and her short lived effort at the cross section was over by the time they reached the straight and she was pulled up before jumping two out. Apart from jumping to her right early on, and reaching at the sixth, Angels Landing did hurdle respectably and can perhaps be forgiven the performance due to the very testing conditions. A month later, Angels Landing was able to bounce back to post her best hurdling effort to date in a juvenile hurdle at Ludlow where she started a warm 10/3 second favourite. Establishing a clear lead early on, she jumped well for the most part and had all bar the winner in trouble leaving the back. Challenged on turning for home, she was soon chasing the winner’s shadow and her hurdling rather deteriorated, but she still had enough to finish twenty-four lengths clear of the third. Her latest appearance came at Doncaster two weeks ago, although rather than joining Galah and a stablemate in the listed fillies’ race, she took her place in a novice handicap over the same trip; running off a mark of 100. Although she was as low as 5/4 during the morning exchanges, Angels Landing drifted out to 9/4 at the off but still held onto favouritism. Tracking the leaders off a comparatively modest tempo, she was one paced in the straight but still maintained her position well into the closing stages before faltering on the run-in and merely clinging on for a eight length third. Seemingly content on any ground with proven form over a course where her likely easy lead will suit, Angels Landing has several factors in her favour. However, the manner in which she folded recently, in conjunction with her trainer’s moderate recent form, does not instill iron clad confidence.Austriana bf Sam Allwood f4-0-0 (60) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Teofilo (One Cool Cat){4-n}(0.82) 2/2 Irving 1st Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G1), Newcastle 2014, 2015
Starting her career with William Jarvis (only one winner from seventeen as a source of juveniles), Austriana started off reasonably well with a seven length fourth of seven in a mid-June, ten-furlong Newmarket novices stakes. However, her taking a keen hold would not abate with experience as finished no closer than fourteen lengths to the winner in similar contests at Newbury and Newmarket, and a Chelmsford handicap off 64 in August. Fetching 2,000gns in the Tattersalls September Online sale, Austriana joined a Sam Allwood yard that thus far has little experience in the sphere. Her pedigree is a compelling one for her new vocation as Teofilo has a fine winner to runner rate of 32.56% with his juveniles, and as well as being the niece of fairly useful winner Iolith, Austriana’s cousin is the high-class hurdler, Irving. This did not translate into confidence ahead of her Catterick hurdling bow in November as she drifted from 50/1 to 80/1. Her free running nature did follow her from the flat as she pulled extremely hard in the rear and made numerous errors as a result before becoming detached leaving the back and pulling up before the last.Dooby bf Sam Allwood b1-0-0 (-) 24 j1-0-0 (-) 47 63
Pearl Secret (Duke Of Marmalade){16-c}(3.00) 3/2 Ruz Gwenn Ha Du 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Nimes 2021
Juveniles who begin their careers in junior bumpers have a modest record when they go over hurdles. The winner to runner rate is a modest 5.15% while their first time strike rate stands at just 2.26%. Moreover, the record of those who recorded RPRs lower than 60 have just one win from two-hundred-and-eighty-five; which did not come first time out. Dooby made her debut in a Wetherby bumper early in December where she lost her position half a mile from home and finished tailed off. Both trainer and sire alike are zero from three with juvenile hurdlers, although Charlie Price has ridden more winners for the yard than stablemate Austriana’s rider. The dam won a bumper but never raced over hurdles and the closest winning jumper on the damline appears at 3/2. Dooby made her hurdling debut in the same Doncaster contest won by Galah in December, starting at 150/1. She tracked the leader and jumped well enough before skewing at the fourth and lost her position approaching three out before finishing tailed off in last place.Rattling Rosie grf John Groucott f5-0-1 (67) 71 j3-0-0 (74) 57 54
Lethal Force (Medicean){22-a}(1.67) 2/1 Endless Ocean 1st 3500 3YO Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2008
Formerly with Tom Dascombe, Rattling Rosie’s flat mark of 67 is just about acceptable in the context of this division and the damline does feature winners such as Endless Ocean (2/1), Call Me Bubbles (3/2) and Solarius (4/4). However, Lethal Force is currently on thirty-five runs in the division without a win and the dam achieved little in two starts over jumps. Rattling Rosie’s switch to the division perhaps had less to do with providing an opportunity for her trainer’s first winner in the sphere, and more to do with her failure of a stalls test. Her hurdles bow came at Bangor in November where, starting at 100/1, she raced in the rear and jumped awkwardly. Though she made minor headway, passing beaten horses, she still finished fifty-four lengths adrift. Her second appearance came at Market Rasen where she was again clumsy, cautious and awkward in the rear before being beaten forty-four lengths in a weaker contest. Rattling Rosie’s third outing came at Hereford in the new year where she pulled hard in midfield, skewed at the first, was big at the second and blundered badly at the fourth from where she lost her position and ultimately finished an eighty-four length seventh. This earned Rattling Rosie a mark of 74 which overestimates her hurdling performances to date while still leaving her with stones to find with the best of these.tl;dr
Galah – Four time winner on the flat and confirmed promising hurdles efforts at Newcastle and Cheltenham with decisive win at Doncaster. Disappointed on return to that venue in listed contest and may require longer break in order to bounce back. Solid enough form claims otherwise.Ile de Jersey – Ex-French, second to well-bred debutant at Sable and well clear of remainder before off the mark in bloodless fashion at Vittel over 3800m. Bred to appreciate further in time but with leading yard with fine first time strike rate which also introduced Punjabi at this venue in January 2007.
Angels Landing – Up there with best of these on flat and has placed on all four completed starts over hurdles without winning. Best effort came at this track on penultimate outing and lead is probably hers if she wants it. Not disgraced in recent Doncaster handicap but manner of her folding in conjunciton with recent stable form will be of concern.
Austriana – Intriguingly bred and debut flat outing at Newmarket not without promise in isolation. However, pulled hard on all four runs in that prior to inexpensive sale and did so again on hurdling bow at Catterick in November.
Dooby – Poor on sole bumper start and while modicum of promise at Doncaster behind Galah, still finished a tailed off last. Much to prove.
Rattling Rosie – Fair maiden for Tom Dascombe but three hurdles outings have resulted in a mark of 74 which she has yet to earn.
Outstanding prospects
1. Ile de Jersey
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Galah
3. Angels Landing
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
4. Dooby
5. Austriana
6. Rattling RosieMy Tuesday evening is now complete.
Many thanks, as always, BH.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Excellent as always.
I think Nicky Henderson will have him spot on for his reappearance and English debut.
Angels Landing to improve past Galah into the runner up spot.A very good-looking horse has been added to Owners Group today. Shares are now available in ILE DE JERSEY, a filly in training with Nicky Henderson. Shares are now available for £57. ONE-OFF payment for the full syndicate period. Shares available & info @ https://t.co/v0Lrl3Znxn pic.twitter.com/zndaKu24Ya
— Owners Group (@ownersgroupuk) September 16, 2021
Vauban looks the part and Willie Mullins is still annoyed that PP beat him.Well done, Simon.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m interested in what posters think about the Pipe juvenile pair, Titian and Kolisi. Both ex William Haggas horses who showed good ability on the flat and cost £155k and £55k respectively last Autumn. After a number of poor showings both now handicapped over hurdles at just 88 and 85. Maybe there’s a long term plan. But they have both been pretty useless this year as juvenile hurdlers. I honestly thought Titian would be a Boodles type at the least.
I run my own private UK Juvenile Hurdle Handicap and, without going into specific numbers, I can’t find any form over timber that makes either of that pair well handicapped, even on those lowly marks.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Hasty Parisian on Town Moor for me today.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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