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From my blog . . .
When I first got into racing in the late 1960s (under-age, sneaking into my local betting shop). I used to be impressed by those punters who’d nod wisely and mutter under their breath “First time blinkers” and write the relevant runner on their slip.
FTB is one of those myths that is still given credence by many. The theory is that connections have been ‘running it down the park’ to get a decent handicap mark and their excuse to the stewards when it sluices in at a fancy price will be “First time blinkers, sir. Made such a big difference. Wish we’d fitted them sooner.”
The reality is that the fitting of these ‘aids’ is often a last-ditch attempt to galvanise a useless horse. Of course they work from time to time but when that happens, it’s usually with a pretty decent animal anyway. Companero won yesterday’s Eider in FTB and although he is 11 years old, that was the 6th win in an 11-race-career under rules (he’d also won all three of his point to points).
David Pipe is a master when deciding a horse needs blinkers. He’s picked up some big prizes with the likes of Comply Or Die, Our Vic and Tamarinbleu, among others.
Since January 1st 1996, until yesterday, flat and jumps, and all-weather, 17,344 horses have run in FTB: 1121 won , a strike rate of 6.5%. £100 on each at Betfair odds (estimated Betfair odds where necessary) leaves a loss of £124,000.
Since starting training in 2006, David Pipe has sent out 106 runners over jumps in FTB: 16 won, a strike rate of 15.1% £100 on each at Betfair odds would have brought you a profit of £7,022.
Good luck
- Total Posts 17716
Blinkers are applied if the horse has a tendency to swerve or seen to move its head nervously from side to side during the race.
To see the effect it has on the race outcome one has to make an excel spreadsheet.
Please tell us this if you can:
When you say 1121 out of 17344 what is the background proportion we should have been expecting ?
This info has to be used in conjunction with the horse’s rating I should think.- Total Posts 17716
I believe ROI is an unstable indicator
froddo, I’m a writer and researcher but not a statistician.
Linking the results to ratings would not be of great help unless you also wanted to factor in all the other variables: track preference, going, general race conditions (the pace it was run at, the sectionals etc) and, not least, the price.
I agree that ROI can be very unstable hence the mention of strike rate too in each case.
- Total Posts 17716
froddo, I’m a writer and researcher but not a statistician.
Linking the results to ratings would not be of great help unless you also wanted to factor in all the other variables: track preference, going, general race conditions (the pace it was run at, the sectionals etc) and, not least, the price.
I agree that ROI can be very unstable hence the mention of strike rate too in each case.
What I ‘m asking is this:
number of winners in FTB group /
number of expected winners in the FTB groupIf the number of horses with FTB in the race is n and the field is N you have to make the addition thus:
+n if won, +0 if not won in the numerator
+n/N in the denominatorNever mind the ratings of each or the price.
So if it is significantly > 1, then it’s true.
If for specific trainers it’s > 1 then concentrate on those trainers.You could make summations proportional to ratings but that makes it difficult. When I say "use in conjunction with ratings" I mean I would n’t back a donkey just because of FTB.
Example:
no of winners with first time aluminum plates from a sample of 301 races = 32
no of expected winners = 25
ratio = 1.56
This may not apply to you (plates) but that’s my method of computing angle stats.
Interesting, froddo, thanks. How do you decide on the ‘number of expected winners’ please?
- Total Posts 17716
Interesting, froddo, thanks. How do you decide on the ‘number of expected winners’ please?
if field = 20 , no with FTB = 3 then no of expected winners = 3 / 20.
Just as if they had flat probabilities, that is everyone the same.
Thought it was interesting that Brian Meehan ran Dangerous Midge in first time blinkers in the Breeders’ Cup because he had a tendency to be lazy and Brian wanted to help Frankie out with a tight, quick track.
Usually I’m worried about first time blinkers as they often fire a horse up and they can run with the choke out. However if a horse – like Dangerous Midge – has been worked in them successfully at home then it can be of benefit.
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