Jumps Season 09/10 Big Race betting review

[shabby]

Unlike other forums, here on TRF not everyone brags about how they win all the time (though some do). I keep a record of my overall performance but I don’t break this down by type of race which has always niggled me as an omission on my part and something I needed to address.
Last Tuesday the Racing Post published an excellent jump season review, mostly stats with a bit of editorial. I took the opportunity to review my jump season performance by type of race. It was very informative and sobering in parts.

Just to be clear the table below is not my actual bets or P&L but what my performance would be to level stakes. I don’t bet to level stakes however nor would I necessarily bet in all of these races (but over 90% for sure) but this gives an indication of strengths and weaknesses.

Grade of race My Wins/Races P&L
GB Grade 1 11/31 +£42.17
GB Grade 2 8/61 -£35.90
GB Top H’cap Ch 2/36 -£15.00
GB Top H’cap Hdls 1/13 -£1.00
Ire Grade 1 11/30 +£22.00
Ire Grade 2 6/47 -£21.37
Ire Top H’cap Ch 1/12 -£4.00
Ire Top H’cap Hdl 1/8 +£2.00
Total -11.10

Comments
GB Grade 1’s – good performance here and definitely did a bit better than these figures indicate as these tend to be my bigger bets and also I had a good ante post season, particularly Cheltenham. Two multiples also gave a return.

GB Grade 2’s – frankly shocked by this one, this would be the main Saturday races and a very poor effort overall. Only one of my 8 winners was above 3/1, half were less than 5/4. I have definitely done worse than the level stakes loss shown above.

GB Top H Chases – Again very poor (though not so surprising) as I spend a fraction of time on handicaps than I do on graded races. Kalahari King at Donny and Ballybriggs were oasis in a desert of mediocrity. Too much action here.

GB Top H hdls – 1 winner …very moderate in terms of winner finding.

Ire Grade 1 – Good effort again over a third of all winners and some decent prices. Generally my stakes wouldn’t be much above level but An Cathoir Mor in the Irish Arkle was my biggest bet of the season and made this a very good category, higher than level stakes.
Ire Grade 2 – Only 6 winners from 47 attempts…I really need to review my G2 approach, I am pretty disappointed that a category I would have thought of as a strength is so poor.

Ire Hcap Ch – 1 winner, should be no surprise as I am probably getting involved too heavily in an area were my knowledge is lower than I thought.

Ire Hcap Hdle – again just not very good

Summary
Grade ones in both countries good and I certainly did better than a level stakes profit. Ante post also improves this area. G2s really rubbish and I need to review seriously…thought I was better than this in this area but I clearly am not. Handicaps no big surprise as they wouldn’t feature as a strength in my eyes but I still thought I had backed more winners than that.
As I mentioned above my records are not comprehensive enough for previous years but looking at what I have, it would seem this seasons results are probably typical for me.

Conclusions
• Continue to concentrate on G1 races and ante post.
• Leave more G2 races alone or spend more time on them (this is unlikely)
• Reduce stakes on big handicaps …chases and hurdles. I do like a bet in these races and enjoy the build up.
• Not much difference in GB or Irish results so stick with current balance.
• Keep more detailed records not just P&L.

I would say I have some discipline as a punter but not as much as I should have, I do like more action than is financial beneficial but this is a hobby and don’t want to wait a week between bets. I have previously seriously downscaled my stakes on day to day bets so that it is not very impactful on my P&L. I obviously need to do that to an extent on some the bigger races also.
Interesting exercise overall.

[Gerald]

Shabby, have you considered whether the good results in G1s was attained because lots of horses won in say the 8/1 – 20/1 category (not sure whether this is correct though) in the past season, and if instead a lot of favourites or second favourites had won, then the results wouldn’t have been so good?

ie, in this particular season, the odds of the winners matched the odds of the type of horses you like to bet?

I suppose it would be rather straightforward, though time-consuming, to do some research on this, but I ain’t volunteering.

edit: Have realised that this is the sort of thing I’ve got Raceform Interactive for. I’m a bit busy with a couple of other things at the moment, but I’ll see whether I can do some sort of price comparison by type of race and season, and may be some sort of other factor as "experience" or won lto later this evening.

[moehat]

Difficult to not let the betting take over from the actual enjoyment of the racing itself, isn’t it. I only used to have a bet on the National and Cheltenham, but then started to study the bigger races so that I had a better idea of the horses running, therefore making the race more interesting. The result was that I then couldn’t resist having ante post bets on those races,which resulted in me being disappointed if I didn’t get a winner or placed horse.Thus defeating the whole object of the exercise. Have been thinking about selecting an obscure race once a week and studying it in depth and seeing if I could make a profit..however, my attempt at Nottingham last week was pretty dire, albeit with not a great deal of time to do the studying. Perhaps we could have a ‘little race discussion’ thread, and come up with some good winners between us!

[Gerald]

Don’t think that would work. It forces people into trying to pick the winner or having a bet, when it may be best to skip that particular race. Also, different approaches work best for different races.

I think what could work is if we did the main staying h’cap chase of the Sunday afternoon during the Summer (or maybe just the main chase). There’s a group of us who feel comfortable in this type of race, and I think jump meetings are quite often on Sundays during the Sunday, as the Flat is taking centre-stage on Saturdays. Also, it gives people a bit of time to do some studying, as I think the deccies are made on Friday.

[Irish Stamp]

Sounds like a good idea Gerald

4:30 at Uttoxeter on Sunday – 3m 2f handicap chase?

[moehat]

Easy; will just back anything that Kim Bailey runs at the moment..might even drive over and cheer it home…..

[Irish Stamp]

I know what I fancy providing it turns up – somewhat surprised to see just how low his handicap mark is too

[Author]

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