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I am with Mehmas all the way in the July Stakes and feel 11/4 is a huge price.
The Hannon colt was runner up to Caravaggio in the Coventry and I am surprised that he is such a big price in what looks a moderate renewal in terms of strength in depth.
Ardad romped away with the Windsor Castle Stakes but that was a funny old race, with Gosden’s horse 20/1 and the runner up 100/1.
Almost every fancied horse in the race ran a stinker. Heavily backed Mister Trader was out with the washing, with several 100/1 shots beating him home. Much was made of the time comparing to Profitable the same day but that’s a theory that has failed before now as we learned that a different race is indeed a different race.
Gosden is in a quiet spell and I feel confident the Coventry form will prove the better of the two races. Given that Ardad also has to step up a furlong in trip, as a son of Kodiac, and the fact that the Hannon’s have won four of the last six renewals, it makes it odd to me to see the two horses joint favourite at 11/4.
Intelligence Cross needs to find plenty and his form looks lacking in strength. There are others with potential but for me Mehmas would be here with only Caravaggio having beaten him had he stayed at 6F.
Caravaggio looked an above average Coventry winner to me and Psychedelic Funk has looked an exciting sort, with his presence in 3rd making this look by far the best 2yo race for colts thus far.
No Caravaggio this time, so this looks a race where Mehmas has to be the one to beat.
July Stakes Mehmas 11/4, Christmas in July
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
11/4…!!! shut the front door.
I only got 2/1 which I thought was big, Going back in on that.
Yeah completely agree Steve re Ardad’s race compared to the Coventry and Hannon believes the better ground is what Mehmas wants aswell.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Probably the first theory I ever developed about racing when I was a kid, was that horses that win at big odds almost never win next time out, which would rule out Ardad
Not sure it’s actually based on any logic though
Not for me as he doesn’t follow the trends…
All of the last 11 have won one or both of their previous 2 races.
Good luck with your bets though.
Not for me as he doesn’t follow the trends…
All of the last 11 have won one or both of their previous 2 races.
Good luck with your bets though.
Where do you stop with trends though.
I can’t have Ardad here because no horse with only five letters in the name has won since Wharf in 1992.
There was actually a fantastic trend for the race from 1786 where 3 of the four winners were named after birds, as Bullfinch, Seagull and Ostrich were successful during that period.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Isn’t Mehmas a little bit on the small side? I’d be worried that he lacks scope and that others might improve past him.
I guess if you are using trends though you have to be fair and point out that the Hannons have a fantastic record in this race. Although they have an equally good record in the National stakes and Mehmas couldn’t win that either.
At the prices Broken Stones is interesting.
I am on SILVER LINE at 7/1 for this
Think he has been crying out for six furlongs and expect him to improve for the step up in trip!!
Isn’t Mehmas a little bit on the small side? I’d be worried that he lacks scope and that others might improve past him.
I guess if you are using trends though you have to be fair and point out that the Hannons have a fantastic record in this race. Although they have an equally good record in the National stakes and Mehmas couldn’t win that either.
At the prices Broken Stones is interesting.
Even if he is small, it’s only early July and surely that’s early enough to be declaring him precocious. He’s probably run his best race ever in the Coventry and it’s not like he is a late March 5F blaster.
He may not be a Guineas type but it’s awfully early to be thinking he’s a has been.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Mehmas had fair excuses for the National broke slightly slow and taken further wide by the horse on his inner, the winner had a dream run up the rail and Mehmas had to manoeuvre around one before closing but Frankie had eased off enough by then, this horse has enough speed but is better over 6f anyway as shown by his runs over the distance.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Yes I’m sure you’re right Steve and Nathan. Steve I’m reluctant to go against you as you have been red hot lately but Mehmas is just the type of horse I like to take on- maybe I’m a stickler for those with more physical scope.
Yes I’m sure you’re right Steve and Nathan. Steve I’m reluctant to go against you as you have been red hot lately but Mehmas is just the type of horse I like to take on- maybe I’m a stickler for those with more physical scope.
Ardad may well be good enough but I worry about the Windsor Castle form. Historically it hasn’t thrown up a really good horse and I can only remember Frederick Engels doing the Windsor/July double in the last 25 years.
Gosden has actually had three winners since I placed my bet, almost doubling his strike rate in the process but that’s typical Sod’s Law whenever you mention a stable in the doldrums.
I feel Intelligence Cross is the worst value in the race at as low as 7/2. Even at double that I wouldn’t back him.
I’ll be surprised if one of the first two in the market doesn’t win this but for me the Coventry is miles better form. I reckon Caravaggio would thump Ardad out of the park and Mehmas has run him much closer than that.
Timeform have tipped Ardad here but I prefer the Hannon horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I hope you’re right Steve as I have backed him as well. There is a small question mark I have about scope but I see no reason why he shouldn’t improve again from the Cov and that form looks solid.
I rate Silver Line a big danger to him here.
Yalta looks value at 14s. Unbeaten going into RA, arguably didn’t get the best of rides that day.
Yalta looks value at 14s. Unbeaten going into RA, arguably didn’t get the best of rides that day.
Just over 10 lengths to find with Mehmas on that race though Joe. That’s a lot to put down to a poor ride.
You never know though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at that race I’m not sure what Ardad has done wrong. Much rather back him than Mehmas at a slightly bigger price. He’s won his last two and Mehmas has lost his last two. Go figure
Incidentally in the first race GOLDMEMBER seems to me to have been underestimated by the market.
Hopes are high in the Ardad camp that the colt will still be unbeaten after Thursday’s Arqana July Stakes at Newmarket.
A winner on quick ground at Yarmouth on his debut, he fairly bolted up in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot on much softer ground just a week later.
The John Gosden-trained youngster now faces an even stiffer task in Group Two company but all the signs at home are that he has come on again.
“He was very impressive at Ascot and I’ve seen him on the gallops since and he looks to have improved again,” said Bruce Raymond, racing manager for owner Abdullah Saeed Al Naboodah.
“There’s no doubt he’s an improving horse. He must go there with a great chance of remaining unbeaten.
“At Yarmouth the ground was quick and it was soft at Ascot so he’s versatile regarding ground.
“Originally we thought he’d be a seven-furlong horse but he’s shown so much speed over five that six might be as far as he wants for now.”
I am on SILVER LINE at 7/1 for this
Think he has been crying out for six furlongs and expect him to improve for the step up in trip!!
I agree fully here – this horse showed a turn of foot that was truly special in winning his maiden.. I think he could turn out to be a very very good horse
Silver Line 6/1
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