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THE TIN MAN 10/1
I think he is a group one sprinter and big race for this market be Diamond Jublilee i expect him to win that and come for this. for me this be year where he be crowned top sprinter at end of year.I hope he not flops at Ascot on saturday.
JUNGLE CAT 25/1
At a bigger price i like this Godolphin horse since going to them has found form again winning in Meydan and running more good races for them classy 2yo think 6f best trip for him my ew bet on race
Terrible race for me Darren. Got the winner and the exacta in 2002, but had to wait a bit for my next winner, when Slade Power won 2 years back. Given my record then, definitely no Ante-Post play for me, and I’ll wait for the final decs, before picking my loser(s).
Best of luck with your 2
Still early days for me Darren but I have it down to 3 horses, dependent on the going.
Twilight Son – Good/Soft
Limato – Good G/Firm
Buratino – Good/Firm (I’ll not give up on him until after this race
)Can’t wait to see Mongolian Saturday in the paddock hope they all turn out in National Costume again.
Think The Tin Man will also want the ground to be on the Good side of Firm if he is to reverse placings with Twilight Son.
Great race in prospect..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well only 5days left now to race any views on it looks like be only JUNGLE CAT for me.
Twilight Son very difficult to beat depending on draw, best horse in the race. Quiet Reflection is the next best with Limato 3rd. It will all come down to what is drawn best.
Twilight Son very difficult to beat depending on draw, best horse in the race. Quiet Reflection is the next best with Limato 3rd. It will all come down to what is drawn best.
Surely for you it will come down to whoever starts as favourite? 😉
goreisking
no mention of Magical memory?one concern is the thought he might water,which would be right annoying,esp with risk of a sharp downpour on saturday
Very tough race, there isnt a fav in this. Magical Memory is more of a bridle horse, I dont think he will see it out thoroughly, also he will be off the pace I suspect which is a big no no. Twilight Son is a very strong horse and very game one, he will be ridden prominently and will be very hard to head.
This is a tough race!!
If the ground stays as it is then my two against the field will be COTAI GLORY and DON’T TOUCH but I could pick ten and still not have the winner.
actually I agree with Goreisking, twilight son should be tough to beat. I think he just won on merit last time.
Henry Candy has been patient with him and the jockey on Limato thinks Twilight son will be coming to his peak on his third run, and doesn’t fancy his chances of beating him.
I don’t see him having a problem with the ground either, has won on all surfaces. 5-1 looks way too big.
Air force blue has his ideal conditions and trainer has a knack of winning this race with horses that have come back in distance, like Mozart etc, but think there’s a very strong chance that Air Force Blue hasn’t trained on and we won’t ever see that brilliance again that he showed in his two year old career
Twilight Son cant win…
1) Bad draw well of the pace
2) Bad jockey on board, Harley isn’t the right jockey for this horse you need a big strong jock on like Moore. Harley is a bridle jockey.Quiet reflection would be the one, likely to get a good toe slightly of the pace then run on strongly.
If Henry Candy and the owners have any sense, they would withdraw the horse. A horse that is isolated can never win, did they not learn from York? Also terrible decision putting Harley on
If the ground is good to firm then Magical Memory has the best chance here for group 1 glory. It’s to his credit that he has won on good to soft previously and he put up a brave performance at Royal Ascot. I saw him win with more in hand than the distance suggested at York 2 starts ago when the ground was on the firm side.
I really like the way he travelled that day and he couldn’t get the same smooth headway on softer ground last month.
Quiet Reflection has been in easier races to win and I’m not sure how well she will go on firm ground but I wouldn’t be ruling her out at all.
I’d be surprised if Twilight Son won this and he was given a big advantage by the conditions at Ascot. Magical Memory barely needs to find a length to beat him this time around.
Who knows? Good luck
If the ground is good to firm then Magical Memory has the best chance here for group 1 glory. It’s to his credit that he has won on good to soft previously and he put up a brave performance at Royal Ascot. I saw him win with more in hand than the distance suggested at York 2 starts ago when the ground was on the firm side.
I really like the way he travelled that day and he couldn’t get the same smooth headway on softer ground last month.
Quiet Reflection has been in easier races to win and I’m not sure how well she will go on firm ground but I wouldn’t be ruling her out at all.
I’d be surprised if Twilight Son won this and he was given a big advantage by the conditions at Ascot. Magical Memory barely needs to find a length to beat him this time around.
Who knows? Good luck
Not convinced about this as Magical Memory and Twilight Son met on good to firm before at Newmarket and the Candy horse firmly put his rival in his place.
As that was arguably one of his most impressive wins from a visual perspective I don’t get all the comments about how Twilight son needs cut in the ground. Maybe the typically cautious trainer has made comments in the regard of “we wouldn’t mind a bit of ease in the ground” as he tends to wrap all his in cotton wool, but I don’t see it. He could even improve for the better ground.
Currently the score stands 4-1 in Twilight son’s favour against Magical memory. Surely in a match bet you’d have to be with Twilight son?
Given the horse has already in his lightly raced career won two of the biggest six furlong sprints in the calendar in the Sprint cup and Diamond Jubilee, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the hattrick up on Saturday.
This looks an incredibly competitive race – I see even my old fav Arod is declared! A veritable who’s who of sprinters….. Good luck picking the winner!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
This is a tough race to get a confident handle on, and is very much one of those races where you have to start by eliminating those who you can’t back.
Right off the bat you have to look at Profitable, and you see a tough sprinter who never seems to win by far but is getting the job done in a likeable way, ie profitable to follow.
The obvious question is whether he can do it over the extra furlong?
He has only tried the trip once and it wasn’t half bad an effort, considering that he was 50/1. It’s a race that worked out really well, with winner Muharrar the champion sprinter of the year.
As we have seen with Sole Power, some horses are just 5F horses and can’t get the extra furlong with the same level of success. Is Profitable in that same mould?
Quiet Reflection is another that you would be looking at in a hurry, with her string of 1s now standing five wide. Strangely enough, I am actually strongly against her here.
She made a name for herself when popping up a ready winner in the Group 2, where Gifted Master was hot favourite. The race hasn’t panned out very well though, with both Gifted Master and Buratino disappointing later. The Commonwealth Cup saw a far weaker renewal in my opinion than last year. Quiet Reflection was entitled to win it and duly did but this company on faster going looks much tougher and I just don’t fancy her to bring up win number six.
Henry Candy has two and it’s hard to say which is the better shout?
If you can have Good Cop/Bad Cop, I feel you can also have Good Limato/Bad Limato. I’ve never quite been able to catch him right and he cost me a 7/2, 6/1, 6/1 treble last year at Royal Ascot, after Solow and Free Eagle had landed the first two legs. Probably on that alone I should never back him again, but, seriously, I feel I cant trust him.
Twilight Son was a welcome winner for Henry Candy at Royal Ascot, during a bit of a stable drought to boot. It was a race of heads, necks and short heads though and my outside pick Suedois ran a belter, only to be 5th 🙁
The Tin Man was awful that day though and I actually prefer others on this firmer ground. Twiglight Son has won on the surface but that was a handicap where he was running off 83 and probably had a stone and a half in hand. With Henry Candy still far from peak form I will pass on the pair.Magical Memory can come out the best from the Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He was just run out of the places that day and held every chance. I feel he is the horse who can benefit most from the better surface now. He has won on good to firm a few times and I expect him to be right on the premises here. The Charlie Hills stable never seem to be firing on all cylinders and now is no exception. He’s only 1 winner from his last 20 runners, so obviously that’s a question mark.
Don’t Touch is another with a great winning record. He did me a big favour ante-post at 14/1 in the Ayr Gold Cup last season and I was on him again last time. He’s not quite this class in my mind though. I actually thought he was beat in the Ayr Gold Cup but he toughed it out and again, last time he ran, he seemed to hit a flat spot but managed to find a burst and land it. That race has not worked out great and I feel Don’t Touch is a lay this time.
Danzeno was second last time to Don’t Touch and I can’t say he’s been a horse I follow. He seems to have a little cult following but he’s too much of a bridesmaid horse in my eyes. I’ll be passing him over and leave him to his fans again.
Air Force Blue is worth a mention because he was seriously good last year. He would have lined up 1/4 in this field at this trip back then but the alarm bells sounded for me when the tongue tie was fitted for the Guineas. He has two horrendous runs to forgive and even at this trip, on fast ground, I can’t be having him. I strongly feel he has receded but you never know, as Lumiere showed today you can bounce back. This fellow has two bad runs to forgive though and I feel he left his best back in his 2yo career.
Of the others:-
Arod:- Trip too short (Former Derby runner!)
Cotai Gory:- Probably best at 5f
Eastern Impact:- Potential outsider at 33/1, has form with several of these
Goken:- A bit short of the required class
Jungle Cat:- Doesn’t win often enough for my liking
Mongolian Saturday:-Winning form is in US and 9th last twice
Sole Power:-Long in the tooth and his rating is declining. He seems the very definition of a 5F horse.
Suedois:- May have some each-way appeal at big odds
Waady:- Has his ground but they are back at the trip he hasn’t won at
Washington DC:- Seems a bit in and out and not won beyond Listed company yet.Verdict:-
Profitable is a horse I like and he could win this but you can’t be sentimental and have to face the fact that he has not won at 6F. The fast ground may help offset the extra furlong but the gut feeling I have is that he will get caught in the closing stages.
The horse who I believe will prove best on this going is Magical Memory. I felt the softer ground caught him out last time and he has done nothing but improve this season. He may have a little more to give as a sprinter as he is only 4 and he lines up here more than a stone improved from when winning the Betfred Mobile over course and distance last year. He has a middle draw, Frankie knows him inside out and the ground is the same as when he won here last year. What’s not to like?
I’ll have a tiny each-way at 1/4 odds 33/1 Eastern Impact for the crack. He doesn’t have quite the level but has form with some of these and there are enough here who may not give their best.
Magical Memory 6/1 (main bet)
Eastern Impact 33/1 each way 1/4 odds Bet365 (for the crack bet)
Good luck to everybody.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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