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Much as I like Mutakayyef, I’m not convinced he gets 9f let alone 10.5f. Hawkbill and Postponed look to be a bit short for my taste, so am also on Almodovar for this.
Dariyan seems big at 20s with PP. Not his trip last time and performance there will have added to the value here. Had a small bet on value prospect alone as it looks a tough, but fascinating race.
Postponed wouldn’t even need to be fit, he would win at 80%.
He was fine last time they just made an excuse on purpose because it’s very important he wins group races over 10f. I’ll tel you one thing, come tomorrow I guarantee he will be more than ready!
Yep and Varian had a good winner on Saturday showing that his horses are perfectly capable of running to their form.
Postponed is head and shoulders above this lot. 6/4 is an absolute joke of a price, should be 8/11, 4/6.
I agree that Varian is having a winer or two ID, but one or two winners does not make a “trainer in form”. When a lot of his runners have performed poorly and – considering it’s the biggest yard in Britain – very few recent runners… It’s not that Postponed definitely will run poorly/not winning – it’s that the chance of running poorly/not winning increases significantly.
Value Is EverythingHawkbill 13-2 Ginger? Think you’d get trampled at that price.
It’s what I believe is the fair price Judge. If I were an odds-compiler and a bookmaker worked from my 100% book he’d need to add a mark up to the 13.5% (13/2) I make Hawksbill… 13.5% + 2% = 15.5%. So offering 11/2. Which is currently one price bigger than the current best price of 5/1.
I’d be disappointed if my 100% books mirrored bookies prices. If it did then there’d be no point in making them.
Good point forgot it was a 100 percent book.
Actually thinking about that brings it back to me how hard it is to beat the bookies long term
Added a small bet 40/1 on Exosphere E/W. Got a feeling of an upset here and remeber Stoutes Ezzoud winning this at a crazy price a few years ago.
Actually i was having dinner the night before the races in York when he came in a bit worse for wear and was shouting his mouth of it would win. Never backed it like
When it comes to a horse like Postponed I really don’t think it matters if a trainer is in form. Class 2-6 handicap runners just wont have the same attention or regime attached to them. Even most other regular group or listed performers.
What sort of form was Henry Candy in when Twilight Son won at Royal Ascot? It didn’t matter, he had a class horse in his hands in those conditions.
That being said, I’m not willing to back Postponed, simply because there hasn’t been enough insight to this respiratory problem he had before the King George. It just isn’t worth my dough at his price.
The Grey Gatsby is very interesting at his price since the last two times he has raced over 10f on good to firm have been a good 2nd to Golden Horn in the Eclipse and an unlucky 2nd to Free Eagle in the POW.Mutakayyef is another one who I like as he has clearly progressed tenfold since his gelding operation but I can’t be backing him over this extended 10f.
On Ginger’s book I’ll take Postponed to win at 15/8, Hawkbill each-way at 13/2 and Highland Reel each way at 10/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A few movers in the market but Almovodar not one of them.
Bit of a concern because Lanigan’s runners are rarely ‘missed’.
I agree with Chivers – Postponed can overcome his trainers form. I am sure they wouldn’t be running him if they weren’t happy and his recent work has been brilliant apparently. I wouldn’t worry about the trip as his pacemaker will make it a test and that long straight will play into his hands. As long as he IS healthy, this proper Group 1 horse should win well. I have had little bets on Wings Of Desire as he is a course and distance winner who will like the ground and have the race run to suit and Sir Isaac because he is a huge price for a horse who ran well for a long time in the KG.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
7/4 now with Skybet Gore.
He’s the best horse in Britain, but is Postponed fit and well? Considering there are qustions about Roger Varian’s form and the 10f Postponed, Hawkbill’s ability to act on the ground and Highland Reel’s effectiveness at the trip – seems to me as though bookmakers have over-estimated their chances. Don’t get me wrong, I still make the trio at combined odds of 8/11, but they’re currently 1/2 at bookies odds!
My 100% Book:
Postponed 15/8, Hawkbill 13/2, Mutakayyef 10/1, Highland Reel 10/1, Wings Of Desire 12/1, Almodovar 14/1, Dariyan 14/1, The Grey Gatsby 14/1, Sir Isaac Newton 50/1, Exposure 50/1, Arab Spring 80/1, King Bolete 500/1Interesting Hawkbill 13/2 Ginger, my question is if The Gurkha was running in this all fit and well would you price that up at 13/2 or would it be lower?
Hawkbill is worryingly big in price. I could see the drift if the favourite were being hammered in but Postponed also has to be worryingly priced for anyone who took Evens and anticipated that he would be odds on come the day.
The field is bigger than I had anticipated but there’s a fair bit of dross in there.
Almodovar is a horse I backed ante-post for the Hardwicke. I had a side difference of opinion with a guy who felt the horse would be better served running in the Eclipse as he felt the trip would suit better than 12f. In the end it was myself who got a run for my money at big odds but my sparring partner seemed proven that the horse ran out of petrol.
28/1 each-way may be worth a poke. Almodovar had looked a much improved horse first time up this season when dismantling his field.
I am tempted by Postponed at 7/4 but I’ve settled for another bet on Hawkbill, each-way at 11/2. I’ll be highly disappointed if he can’t place in this race and he seems worth following until he is beaten.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m fascinated to see how Hawkbill runs Stevie as he is the big danger to the fav IF he handles the ground. Everything else fits for Hawkbill – unlike many of the others, he is running over his optimum trip, he is in great form himself, and he has a Group 1 win so has proven himself at this level. My nagging worry is the ground. Connections think it won’t matter and if it doesn’t he will surely go close but I just worry that all his form is with cut and he has beaten horses that might not have been as suited to conditions as he was. Anyway we will find out soon enough so best of luck with your bets.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
7/4 now with Skybet Gore.
He’s the best horse in Britain, but is Postponed fit and well? Considering there are qustions about Roger Varian’s form and the 10f Postponed, Hawkbill’s ability to act on the ground and Highland Reel’s effectiveness at the trip – seems to me as though bookmakers have over-estimated their chances. Don’t get me wrong, I still make the trio at combined odds of 8/11, but they’re currently 1/2 at bookies odds!
My 100% Book:
Postponed 15/8, Hawkbill 13/2, Mutakayyef 10/1, Highland Reel 10/1, Wings Of Desire 12/1, Almodovar 14/1, Dariyan 14/1, The Grey Gatsby 14/1, Sir Isaac Newton 50/1, Exposure 50/1, Arab Spring 80/1, King Bolete 500/1Interesting Hawkbill 13/2 Ginger, my question is if The Gurkha was running in this all fit and well would you price that up at 13/2 or would it be lower?
Reason why I’ve made Hawkbill a 13/2 shot Gibbs, are the reasons Jonibake gives above, GROUND; nothing to do with his ability. I also thought – looking at the Eclipse – although not exactly a pounding action – it is not one I’d see likely to run to its best on a firm surface. The Gurkha has no such qualms, so if he’d run fit and well I’d have made him a lot closer to Postponed in the market.
As forecast, Postponed, Hawkbill and Highland Reel friendless in the market. I’ll be thinking about a saver bet on Postponed if reaching 2/1.
Value Is EverythingHawkbill ran his worse race on his debut on quickish ground.
Admittedly he was left ten lengths behind at the start and would have got tailed off in that race on any ground, but yes the going has to be a slight concern.
A few movers in the market but Almovodar not one of them.
Bit of a concern because Lanigan’s runners are rarely ‘missed’.
Unfashionable jockey and trainer Stilvi. Don’t know what the racing press has said this morning, but if little then not surprised no market move yet. Could be a different situation on course.
Value Is EverythingI agree with Chivers – Postponed can overcome his trainers form. I am sure they wouldn’t be running him if they weren’t happy and his recent work has been brilliant apparently.
I don’t think any trainer would run a horse of his class if not happy with recent work Joni. Trouble is these things come out when under extreme presure at the races.
Value Is Everything
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