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I must admit that I’ll be surprised should Postponed be beaten. I really don’t think the trip will be an issue looking at the pace he’s shown in his races although it must be said I don’t see a return to 10 furlongs being an inconvenience to Highland Reel considering he’s a US Grade 1 winner and French Classic runner-up at the trip. Postponed’s two tries at a mile and a quarter last year were 2nd on seasonal debut to Western Hymn at Sandown and a neck and a short-head behind Al Kazeem and Fascinating Rock in a Grade 1 at the Curragh; and Postponed is now officially a 6 pound better horse. The likes of Almodovar, Arab Spring, Exosphere, Mutakayyef, Sir Isaac Newton are all solid enough Group 2/3 performers but will surely come up short on the big stage and while the likes of Dariyan, My Dream Boat and The Grey Gatsby are top level winners, all are coming in off below-par performances with the first two mentioned sure to find conditions too lively and the lovable Gatsby proving an expensive horse to follow. Wing’s Of Desire has proven unable to post a figure good enough to claim a domestic Group 1 and I can’t see form being turned round with Highland Reel despite a return to a track he’s won at; and the Dante form is taking knocks thanks to Foundation (last at Haydock), Muntazah (last at Newmarket), Victory Bond (4th of 5 at Chantilly), Choreographer (last at Royal Ascot) and Harrison (last at Glorious Goodwood). Of the two main dangers; we’ve seen Highland Reel at his best (King George) and you would still have to say that it’s still just behind that of Postponed’s and therefore has it all to do especially on the back of such a hard race. Hawkbill’s weight allowance makes him the biggest danger and the form of all 3 victories this season look’s rock solid (2nd & 3rd from Sandown have won since) however, all those wins have been on the softer side of good and the Eclipse was run to suit. So although the selection is Postponed to win, that is a bit boring so I will also say Mutakayyef each-way at 14/1 – a course winner who is improving with every run, will love the quick ground and the Summer Mile form is looking solid (Dutch Connection 2nd and Richard Pankhurst 5th).
Selections:
POSTPONED 2pts points win @ 6/4 generally
MUTAKAYYEF 1pt each-way @ 14/1 generallythe Dante form is taking knocks thanks to Foundation (last at Haydock), Muntazah (last at Newmarket), Victory Bond (4th of 5 at Chantilly), Choreographer (last at Royal Ascot) and Harrison (last at Glorious Goodwood).
They laughed at me when I said I thought the Dante was bobbins.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They laughed at me when I said I thought the Dante was bobbins.
No Steve, we laughed because you backed Wings Of Desire to win Britain’s best race – the Derby – on the back of what you considered a “bobbins”. race.
Value Is EverythingYou’re entitled to your opinion Steve, I know you only think wins should count – but Group 2 Dante winner Wings Of Desire showed improved form to be runner-up in Britain’s best (Group 1) open aged mile and a half race… And Group 2 Dante 2nd Deauville showed improved form to win a Group 1 in the USA.
Dante form hasn’t worked out too badly. I wouldn’t judge a race by Foundation. A horse of very doubtful temperament and therefore at best inconsistent, at worst may never run to the same standard as his Dante/Royal Lodge form again.
Wings Of Desire isn’t out of this week’s race, but this looks a bit short. He’ll need the race to go his way with an overly strong pace. Otherwise, probably needs at least 1 1/2 miles at this stage of his season/career.
Value Is EverythingI’m not so sure Wings Of Desire has showed improved form Ginger that King George was an absolute pig of a group one race.
Roger Varian had a winner at Doncaster on Saturday, a good winner in a competitive race which gives real hope that Postponed can run his race on Wednesday. If he does that I expect him to scoot home here. I think Hawkbill is the only danger the race looks weak in depth.
Postponed 6/4 now??? Is that a good price?
As you all know I don’t back many favourites so I am looking elsewhere for a bet in this.My pin has come down on DARIYAN at 16/1 and ARAB SPRING at 25/1.
I can’t see Alain sending this over for the day out and I know Postponed has beaten it easily twice but I think that is reflected in the price.
Arab spring looks just like many other Stoute late bloomers and I think with any sort of run it would have won last time out and I know it has to improve a stone to win this who is to say Stoute can’t improve it that much!!those two each way and some combo forecasts and exactas with the fav will do me.
Deauville won an egg and spoon race in America. He’s rated 112 and it showed in another load of old bobbins, the Arlington million, won by Modialiste.
I backed Wings Of Desire because he had the chance to improve in the Derby. Despite Gosden’s claim that the horse had come forward again in the Derby, he didn’t, he didn’t even run to his Dante form.
These Group 1 races are not good just because they are called group 1. Sometimes they are crap and that was what we had at Ascot this year.
I’ve said my piece, we will see how it pans out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This looks like one of more interesting Group 1 races.
Postponed might well be the one to beat but at the predictably short price I am quite happy to give him the swerve. Not entirely convinced that his actual form quite merits the plaudits and clearly it has been a little bit of a bumpy road between Epsom and York.
I am going to take a chance with Almodovar. He travelled like the best horse last time but didn’t appear to get home. The drop in distance on quicker ground should be a plus and it is certainly not out of the question that he could find at least 7-10lbs.
Anyone can pick holes in the Eclipse form and I will be surprised and a tad disappointed if Hawkbill’s sequence isn’t broken. Personally, at nearly half the price, I think Mutakayyef needs to find more improvement than Almodovar as well as answering the stamina questions.
Deauville won an egg and spoon race in America. He’s rated 112 and it showed in another load of old bobbins, the Arlington million, won by Modialiste.
I backed Wings Of Desire because he had the chance to improve in the Derby. Despite Gosden’s claim that the horse had come forward again in the Derby, he didn’t, he didn’t even run to his Dante form.
These Group 1 races are not good just because they are called group 1. Sometimes they are crap and that was what we had at Ascot this year.
I’ve said my piece, we will see how it pans out.
Time Test’s form against Mondialiste looks better now than it did at the time doesn’t it?
Yes, I dare say you did think Wings Of Desire would improve Steve, point is he must have had an absolutely enormous amount of improvement to make from a “bobbins race” to win a Derby… And yet you backed him to do it.
I don’t take much notice of Wings Of Desire’s Derby run. Gosden adamant he’s better on a sound surface; worked disappointingly in Breakfast With The Stars on soft ground and not able to show his best Derby Day on similar.
Group 1 races are indeed “not good just because they are called group 1” (I said the same earlier). imo It wasn’t a good King George. Highland Reel was after all – beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Postponed at Meydan. But that means a line through Highland Reel puts Wings Of Desire just 5 1/2 lengths behind Postponed. Highland Reel was also beaten 3 3/4 lengths by Golden Horn in the Irish Champion, with The Grey Gatsby a further length behind (possibly slightly below form). Golden Horn also beat The Grey Gatsby 3 1/2 lengths in the Eclipse. So even though it wasn’t an up to scratch King George, you could rate Highland Reel and The Grey Gatsby very similarly, with (on King George form) Wings Of Desire just 1 1/4 behind that pair.
Value Is EverythingI honestly don’t know why there is such a big fuss about this race, it is very very simple. Postponed is overpriced if anything! 6/4 to win this race? Its not even group level. If he didn’t win this by 3 or more and easily I would be extremely surprised.
Your talking about the best racehorse around this year by distance!
Without a doubt Postponed’s biggest test to date. Hopefully he puts up a good performance but i think 6/4 is very short for a horse in this company that has never won over the distance before.
7/4 now with Skybet Gore.
He’s the best horse in Britain, but is Postponed fit and well?
Considering there are qustions about Roger Varian’s form and the 10f Postponed, Hawkbill’s ability to act on the ground and Highland Reel’s effectiveness at the trip – seems to me as though bookmakers have over-estimated their chances. Don’t get me wrong, I still make the trio at combined odds of 8/11, but they’re currently 1/2 at bookies odds!
My 100% Book:
Postponed 15/8, Hawkbill 13/2, Mutakayyef 10/1, Highland Reel 10/1, Wings Of Desire 12/1, Almodovar 14/1, Dariyan 14/1, The Grey Gatsby 14/1, Sir Isaac Newton 50/1, Exposure 50/1, Arab Spring 80/1, King Bolete 500/1Value Is EverythingPostponed wouldn’t even need to be fit, he would win at 80%.
He was fine last time they just made an excuse on purpose because it’s very important he wins group races over 10f. I’ll tel you one thing, come tomorrow I guarantee he will be more than ready!
Postponed wouldn’t even need to be fit, he would win at 80%.
He was fine last time they just made an excuse on purpose because it’s very important he wins group races over 10f. I’ll tel you one thing, come tomorrow I guarantee he will be more than ready!
Yep and Varian had a good winner on Saturday showing that his horses are perfectly capable of running to their form.
Postponed is head and shoulders above this lot. 6/4 is an absolute joke of a price, should be 8/11, 4/6.
Hawkbill 13-2 Ginger? Think you’d get trampled at that price.
It’s what I believe is the fair price Judge. If I were an odds-compiler and a bookmaker worked from my 100% book he’d need to add a mark up to the 13.5% (13/2) I make Hawksbill… 13.5% + 2% = 15.5%. So offering 11/2. Which is currently one price bigger than the current best price of 5/1.
I’d be disappointed if my 100% books mirrored bookies prices. If it did then there’d be no point in making them.
Value Is Everything
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