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Plenty of horses ran below their best at Epsom. That’s a common occurrence. We will see how it pans out. Derby third Idaho has only ever won his maiden.
I don’t think it was a good Derby and will back accordingly, as I see fit.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
USAR wont win over 1 mile 2F in this company. The horse was given his rating over 12F in the Derby. I would argue the Gurkha would not get within half a furlong of USAR over 12F.
USAR is 10/1 at the moment because he wont run in this race.I’ll take that 110 yards handicap if you want to bet on it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would argue the Gurkha would not get within half a furlong of USAR over 12F.
You’re right Botchy, The Gurkha will be safely tucked up in his Irish box when USAR races over 12f in France or USA.
Value Is EverythingPlenty of horses ran below their best at Epsom. That’s a common occurrence. We will see how it pans out. Derby third Idaho has only ever won his maiden.
I don’t think it was a good Derby and will back accordingly, as I see fit.
You’re a difficult man to please Steve.
Idaho placed in two Derbys, well clear of those behind him. Beating the subsequent King George second by much further than the Ascot winner managed… Yet dissed because he’s “only ever won a maiden”.I’m intrigued to know what the evidence is that shows you this year’s Derby is not a good one.
Have I missed something? Is it just about Idaho not winning?Value Is EverythingI like my horses to have beaten winners. I’ve never been as keen on placed form. That’s my personal preference.
I don’t share the enthusiasm for the subsequent winners from the Derby also rans. Even though I backed Across The Stars and Ulysses the next time they ran, and at good odds I might add, I don’t think the form of either race won was strong and my interest in Across The Stars is mainly in his St Leger prospects.
Golden Horn was a good Derby winner and he could do the business at shorter. I feel this year’s Derby horses are much more about stamina than class.
It doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks. I have my own methods and gut feeling. I see something in a horse that I like and go with it.
I suppose I’m just jammy when I win and a bad judge when I get them wrong.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like my horses to have beaten winners. I’ve never been as keen on placed form. That’s my personal preference.
It doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks. I have my own methods and gut feeling. I see something in a horse that I like and go with it.
That’s all well and good Steve, there are after all – other ways of making a profit than being obsessed with handicapping marks…
whereas US Army Ranger has his mark from the notoriously unreliable Epsom track, in what looked a very average Derby.
I feel the handicapper has the rose tinted specs on when assessing the Epsom Derby.
However, you did criticise a mark the Handicapper gave USAR.
I suspect the Handicapper would find his job impossible if he did not take placed efforts in to full account. Doubt the Handicapper would get away with entrusting the whole handicap system to a “gut feeling”. We are in a fortunate position, he needs to justify his work with facts and figures.Value Is EverythingI don’t really care about the handicapper to be honest with you. It’s a tough job but it’s not one he’s forced to accept. I feel The Gurkha’s form is much more solid, based on several races, US Army Ranger just has the Epsom form to be taken, or rejected on trust.
This thread is about finding the winner of the Juddmonte and I have made my selection.
I like to get on early and look for value that way, rather than worry about ratings so much. Some of them won’t run in the Juddmonte and it’s about picking the ones you feel could run.
I did Home Of The Brave last time and Dutch Connection picked him off that day. I decided to stick by the horse and took him at 4/1 for the Hungerford. As I said earlier, Across The Stars is one of my Leger picks and it seemed sensible to back him for the Voltiguer at 14/1. He has Idaho to worry about on the Derby ratings but the bigger odds appealed to me as the bet.
These two are 6/4 and 9/2 now and for all I punt it’s not the end of the world if they don’t win. Fair Eva was 6/4 and even though I don’t like the choice of race she is miles ahead of the opposition this season, I think she was a better bet for the Lowther than backing former Derby runners at 4/5 on the day.
Massaat was shafted today and it is all about excuses for him now. I only back them if they are good odds after a moderate run. Sometimes Epsom seems to rax a horse and I don’t want to be backing at short odds to find that out.
If I’m lucky I might get a winner or two at York, some of them might not run (Lady Aurelia). I put my thinking down and if I am wrong I am wrong. Hawkbill will either win it or he won’t, US Army Ranger will either run or he won’t, it’s all about personal choice and if I am fortuitous, rather than a “Classic” form reader, then I don’t really give a fiddler’s.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good post, it’s your money and you call the shots. Listen to no one and go with what you believe.
It’s great though to take a view on a big race and express your views to others. Right or wrong everyone respects peoples views and if they dont win then they are happy to see someone else win.
Really hope The Grey Gatsby can run a good race @ 12’s E/W.
Top class form over the distance, runs well at York and was rated 3rd best horse in the world in 2014.
Interesting he has been kept in training this year but seems up against it here on his latest form. It would be a joy to see him return to his best form at York.
These two are 6/4 and 9/2 now and for all I punt it’s not the end of the world if they don’t win. Fair Eva was 6/4 and even though I don’t like the choice of race she is miles ahead of the opposition this season, I think she was a better bet for the Lowther than backing former Derby runners at 4/5 on the day.
So after putting us all off backing Fair Eva for the Lowther, grave yard for Guineas fillies, how specialist sprinters would beat her, how you were going to get in touch with connections to tell them not to be so stupid running her etc… You took the 6/4 !!! :lol:
…Well, you must listen to me sometimes then.
Wish you’d come back to DLAP Steve, allow us to get on before the price shortens.
Such a shame about Massaat, went from going well to beaten in a stride, sadly looked lame when passing me today. Hope Owen Burrows stand out best horse is ok.
Value Is EverythingBack to the thread title:
I think Mutakayyef is good value at 14/1.
What do you think Steve?Value Is EverythingThe worry with the Lowther isn’t necessarily about the race itself. It is a possibility that a 5F horse could make Fair Eva vulnerable on the day but these Lowther winners have looked sprinters of late and Frankie said he felt she was ready for a step up to 7F now.
Fair Eva had to be backed because I feel she may be as much as a stone ahead of the others at this stage. We will get some idea of that notion next week but overall it’s the Guineas I am concerned about.
I don’t think anyone backs my ante-post shots anyway, so I only put the occasional one up for the Classics now. I do some tipping on another site and it’s sometimes hard to get the time to write them up, as I write them up differently to avoid the notion that I am cutting and pasting from one site to the other, and might just be lifting someone else’s thoughts to pass off as mine.
Getting back to the Juddmonte, Charlie Appleby has said that, despite looking bigger and stronger since his last start, Hawkbill is approaching the York meeting on exactly the same weight he went into the Eclipse on. They are happy with his work and regarding the going the trainer said Hawkbill handles cut but that he expects that he will go well on better ground, as the sire is Kitten’s Joy. Appleby believes the horse is still strengthening and maturing physically.
All being well I would hope to see Hawkbill no bigger than 5/2 by the day of the race. If he’s sitting bigger than that I’ll be on Prozac by the time the stalls open.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can’t back Mutakayyef.
William Haggas is having a good time of it and is currently batting at over 30% but it’s a big sore thumb for me that his success at the top table just isn’t there.
He’s more or less devoid of Classic contenders and when he did supplement one for the Oaks, he ruled her out within a week of doing so.
Mutakayyef was quite impressive last time but it looked a weakish race, with a few dodgepots in the mix. He doesn’t have winning form at the trip at this level.
The biggest turn off for me is the dearth of success that William Haggas has at the top of the game though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ballydoyle handler confirmed US Army Ranger is “unlikely” to line up
No surprise there then.
It’s gone from looking a very good race to about below average now.
If Wings of Desire turns up I wouldn’t mind having a match bet to turn the tables on Highland ReelBlackbeard to conquer the World
I think this could cut up quite a bit, but I’m pretty sure that THE GREY GATSBY will
take his place here. He was 3rd in this last year behind Arabian Queen and Golden Horn, giving them
11lb and 8lb respectively. He was a bit disappointing in the Irish Champion Stakes, but it was maybe
late enough in his season. I think he maybe needed the run a bit in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot
on his comeback, but he ran a good race behind Big Orange, who has been a revelation this year, last time
at Newmarket. Hopefully this has been the plan for a long time after his 3rd last year. If Postponed
hasn’t recovered 100% from the infection which had him miss the King George, then this is wide open.
Even if he has, then TGG is a pretty decent looking e/w bet at 12/1 (3 places at the time).I think this could cut up quite a bit, but I’m pretty sure that THE GREY GATSBY will
take his place here. He was 3rd in this last year behind Arabian Queen and Golden Horn, giving them
11lb and 8lb respectively. He was a bit disappointing in the Irish Champion Stakes, but it was maybe
late enough in his season. I think he maybe needed the run a bit in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot
on his comeback, but he ran a good race behind Big Orange, who has been a revelation this year, last time
at Newmarket. Hopefully this has been the plan for a long time after his 3rd last year. If Postponed
hasn’t recovered 100% from the infection which had him miss the King George, then this is wide open.
Even if he has, then TGG is a pretty decent looking e/w bet at 12/1 (3 places at the time).Great news, Spencer is not riding
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