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Bluestocking, City Of Troy, Calandagan , Ambiente Friendly , Ghostwriter, Zarakem, Royal Rythem, Maljoom, Israr, Durezza, Hans Anderson, Docklands, Alflailka
Cannot remember a field this big for this which in theory shows how open this is.
I couldn’t resist a small ew on Maljoom at 33s as the way he finishes his races seems like he’ll appreciate this rise in distance.
Now this is a horse race, easily the race of the season, by some distance.
Have to be taking on the fav, calandagans win was impressive, but flattered i think, will get his ground again it looks like? Probably worth more credit than what im giving him, but it just looked to good to be true, both the front two in the markets trainers are in very good form also, so could be foolish to overlook, but im going to
I too will be on maljo e/w and i expect him to be a fair bit shorter than the 33/1 available, haggas yards flying currently aswell
The rest are worthy of there place and wouldnt be surprised if israr ran a nice race aswell
looks a cracker to me will probably play Bluestocking ew, really looking forward to this
With a field size this big, I do hope old Hans doesn’t cause too many traffic problems as he drops back through the field somewhere at the top of the straight.
I like the French horse but I do wonder whether the combination of a drop back in trip on quick ground (don’t personally think the ground is an issue) might catch him out a little as his 10F races in the past have all been on French soft or heavy ground. Hopefully, Pasquier doesn’t sit too far out the back and give him too much to do – the faster Hans goes to make it a stamina test the better and the extra half furlong will help too.
I do also like Bluestocking (a course and distance winner), but I would be worried about her having back to back runs on fast ground as connections in the past have seemed to look for ease in the ground and she has been beaten every time she has run on good to firm (although Ascot was her best run).
For a big out of left field outsider, I think Docklands could potentially be one to run well as he steps up past 8.5F for the first time (his half brother was a multiple 10F winner and also won at 12F). His run behind Charyn in the Queen Anne now reads very well (with Maljoom almost 3L behind him) although I do conceed that his best runs do seem to come over Ascot’s straight mile course.
Whatever happens, it is good to see a big field for a top G1 race but I do foresee that there could be more than a few finding traffic problems at the business end of the race.
Bit of a surprise to see Israr in here, but he’s an interesting one, and I’m happy to take a chance on him at 33’s.
Israr EW4Pls/33’s
City Of Troy and Ambiente Friendly are the 2 I like the best in this. City Of Troy is back on better ground and Ambiente Friendly is probably back at his ideal trip. City Of Troy is 6-5, however City Of Troy and Ambiente Friendly to both finish in the first 4 is 13-8 so went with that for a bit of interest.
City of Troy with decent going will bound away from these.
Odds against lump on job…
wheelbarrow at the readyBlackbeard to conquer the World
Perfect for Ambient , I reckon he may have to many gears to put the fav in trouble , he’s a cracking e.w price
Ambiente Friendly should do better at this trip, but he’ll need to as his form is short of many of these. For a horse that has got on edge beforehand, the forecast of strong winds at this track may also be a problem.
The form of Alflaila’s victory last time means little as it was an extraordinarily slowly run race. But as such, he did very well to win from a positional disadvantage. Shouldn’t be far away. Stable are in very good form too. 18/1 imo underestimates his chance.
Calandagan may be coming back in trip, but his best form isn’t far off City Of Troy. The way he came clear in the King Ed was a Group 1 performance in a Group 2… And the way he travels through his races gives a good chance of being effective at 10f – at least in a strongly run race (which isn’t guaranteed). But the difference in price between the two horses – for me – means it’s worth taking a chance on the French horse.
It is the other French horse that imo is one of the two most over-priced though. What price would Auguste Rodin be if he was in here? Yes, he might only just do enough, but that is not a given. Zarakem got within a length of him in the POW, which was also the horse’s best ever performance. A four year old, but he improved to win the Harcourt and improved again to be runner-up at Ascot. Further progress today onto bloody good form and… 26/1 on the machine is imo unbelievable value. Weakness isn’t as worrying because he was also weak the market last time out too. French “Second strings” often are when racing in Britain.
Bluestocking’s form is right up there too. But it does seem to have levelled out and has she the speed for this trip on this ground? Took a long time to get there in the Pretty Polly on much softer going and stays 12f well. imo It’ll need to be a strong pace today for her to figure.
Israr is much more consistent in headgear now and his form isn’t that much behind the top. But it is established as behind the top and I don’t see any reason for improvement. Maybe if others don’t perform might place, but can’t see him winning.
Japan is on the up amongst horse racing nations. Normally I’d be interested. Durezza has some good form. But ran badly last time out and his best so far has been over much further.
Royal Rhyme simply won’t be good enough. A normally prominent racing horse that needs a truly run race to be at his best. Nothing there to say he could nick this.
So to the favourite. I’d really like to see a performance of the ability connections think (or say) he’s capable of. Yes, COT has the best form, but as yet only marginally better than many of his rivals today. That said, his Eclipse victory was better than many on here claimed. Second Alriffa has since won a German Group 1 by a street and See The Fire almost caused an upset in the Nassau. There is however a possibility firmer ground might be key to the promised brilliance and the stable is again in excellent form. City Of Troy is a fair 13/8 shot in my 100% book.
Ghostwriter was only 2 lengths behind COT at Sandown… And that his best performance yet. But will need to progress significantly again to actually win here. In the colours of previous International winner (my biggest priced winner ever) Arabian Queen.
Docklands best is at Ascot and chased home Charyn. Strong finishing there might suggest he’ll do better over this trip. But in a race run at an overly strong pace Charyn was probably value for more than the winning distance. Those that chased him home – Docklands, Majloom, Witch Hunter all coming from rear. Charyn wasn’t prominent but was nearer the pace.
That said, Majloom has since put up his best performance yet (is improving). Chasing home Notable Speech in the Sussex. That form isn’t quite good enough to win here, but not as far off as the betting would suggest and was again finishing a mile strongly. Hasn’t had much racing for a 5 year old (only 2 more than COT) – still unexposed. Although not bred for it, more progress first time at this 10f trip could surprise. Especially as Haggas is in absolutely outstanding form at the moment. Hopefully won’t lose too much ground at the start, can sometimes be slowly away. I’ve taken some 36 and 34 on the machine but 32 is still freely available. imo has around double that chance!
My 100% Book:
13/8 City Of Troy
13/2 CaLaNdAgAn
9/1 ZARAKEM
10/1 ALFLAILA
10/1 Bluestocking
11/1 Ambiente Friendly
16/1 MAJLOOM
33/1 Ghostwriter
50/1 Israr
66/1 Durezza
100/1 Docklands
500/1 Royal Rhyme
2000/1 Hans AndersonValue Is EverythingIf Friendly gets to post relaxed then his chance would be better than I currently have him in my book, Mike.
Value Is EverythingI have had an each way saver on Ambiente Friendly. I agree with Ginger’s assessment that he does need to improve but I felt after the Derby that a drop in distance would suit him.
One of the most if not the most competitive 10f GP1 races for a while,what do we have on Racing TV,Mcnae & his RaceIQ data rubbish boring for England.
Why oh why do they not get it that making racing so analytical also makes it extremely boring & an utter turn off.
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