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Some heartfelt comments on handicappers from trainer Kim Bailey, taken from his website. Two of the horses Allformary beat have run since and been unplaced in a claiming hurdle and a novice selling hurdle – clearly form well worth a 28lb rise.
"Saturday added to the misery in some respects as yet another favourite bit the dust. Allformary whose 28lb rise for winning a moderate race at Wincanton (still holds an all time record for my training career) proved that the handicapper was wrong when she failed to win at Stratford on Saturday. Take nothing away from Mary as she ran well and had every chance turning into the straight but she could only finish 4th. was she not good enough? Weight will stop racehorses eventually.
I don’t imagine for one second that the handicapper will admit that he was wrong and drop her. It would probably take 12 runs over 2 years to return to her original mark, not that I am suggesting for one second that that is where she should be.
Sadly the current handicapping mode does, in my opinion, more harm to racing than you can imagine; perhaps handicapping should be related to prize money? That would soften the blow. Allformary was raised 28 lbs for winning £1900 while in comparison Junior, who won even easier at Cheltenham was raised 19lbs, but at least he won £30,000.
Yes Mary will win again but it will be a struggle for her; in one fell swoop the handicapper has nearly ended her career. I have always felt that handicappers should pay for a horse in training for a season just to see what the other side of the fence feels like!?"
AP
The winning performance was judged at 5lbs less by RPR, which I find interesting.
I could suggest that the handicapper has taken revenge for seemingly making a ‘mockery’ of the handicap system at Wincanton on the 11th March, but that’s just me guessing.
Clearly, though, if Allformary runs like she did in her first 2 starts over hurdles, Bailey should have little to worry about. That will knock 10lbs off and she’ll be back down to a ‘realistic’ winning mark, which again explains the puzzling logic used by P Smith + Co.
Handicapping in relation to prize money? Sounds like something Barney Curley would love. It’s not realistic for so many reasons. The winner of the Tattersalls sales races might well not be up-to Group class, for example. Unless you took the Horsemen’s Tariff as your guide for achievement!
Handicapping in relation to sensible rises for winning horses? P Smith + Co should have that sorted already.
I think I’ve probably made the comment before but the handicappers seem to think it is their job to stop a winning horse from winning again rather than to give a winning horse a fair chance of winning its next race.
I do wonder whether courses could take a hand by framing races in a way which takes the handicapper out of the equation. For example, could a course frame a race where weight is allocated not on the basis of a horse’s official handicap rating but on the basis of its Timeform rating?
It’s seems the handicapper do not take ANY note of important things like going, distance, days between runs and track configuration.
Denman runs what 20lbs below his "normal mark" when goin right handed.
Alberta’s Run best form is on good ground, so we could expect a drop off 20lbs on soft ground.
Whilst these are exterme examples, a horse will only perform to its best if all factors suit it. The offical handicappers think your should perform to your handicap mark all the time which to my mind is completing nuts! A more logical question is how did they perform to their expected performance under the race conditions and handicap from that. This would mean some horses wouln’t get dropped for being beaten because they run as expected but an improvement in the expected result wether 1st or 6th could result in a rise.
Of course this doesn’t answer how some horses get a mark in the first place and why "random" dropps seem to handed out.
Friday’s Qualifier
Panama At Once
4 placed horses out of the last 5 runners is about as good it gets when you’re aiming to select the most out of form horses in handicaps.
You’ll hear trainers say we put their horses up in the weights by large amounts and then it takes forever for them to come down, but that doesn’t mean we don’t give large drops when justified and I had a couple from each category this week.Tayarat has had only two runs on the Flat since 2007, achieving little in both, and although he has winning form over hurdles in between I decided to lower his mark from 70 to 55 after he finished a well-beaten last in a handicap at Catterick.
Updating this thread daily is going to be tougher at the moment and in the coming weeks. Evening racing looming, plus differing marks between the All Weather and Turf will make going through race cards take a fair bit longer.
But today is potentially a fun day.
Obvious place to start is with Sommerstrum. Today the day or not? Was 331 days ago really meant to be the day? All questions will hopefully be answered by 4:10.
Bishopbriggs re-appears for the first time since landing the famous gamble along with Tell Halaf.
Footstepsofspring ran ‘ok’ last time out and was dropped again for that run.
I’m sure we’re all building up for the race Phil Smith has spent 2 weeks on only to see a horse win by 10l.
And if they drop Duchess Dora for her run at Beverley today they should all be sacked.
Thursday’s Qualifiers
Global Village
Jobe
Niran2 1/4 lengths was the winning margin in the Grand National – I’m sure Phil Smith is delighted and feels like he’s justified his salary for a year with that result.
Monday’s Qualifiers
I’ve done my best to pick out the most puzzling randomness from Mr Smith + Co. With 5 meetings…… there’s more than enough. I’ve again left out the worst of the no hopers, who are definitely not capable of winning any race and those who never deserved the ratings they got in the first place.
TOT O´WHISKEY
VASODILATOR
ASPECTUS
KYLLACHY STORM
FARLEIGH
ISTIQDAAMBallabriggs reward for winning the National was to have his hurdle rating raised by 10lbs. Well obviously a four and a half mile chase over thirty big fences is a solid guide to hurdling ability!
Paul Webber’s reward for taking a chance with two young horses in the novice races at Aintree was a pair of surprise second places for Cantlow and Sarando. Not sure he’ll be feeling quite so pleased this morning, as Cantlow has been put up 14lbs and Sarando 19lbs.
The latter rise maroons Sarando, as he clearly isn’t good enough to take on the best in level weight races, but his new mark of 149 severely limits the number of handicaps for which he’s qualified.
Compare and contrast with the treatment of Zarkander, who won the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle and got dropped 3lbs! Meanwhile Palawi, who fell two out in the same race was raised 12lbs.
But as we’re regularly told, the handicapper is not in the business of punishing horses that take on higher rated rivals in novice events …..
AP
I continue to find this a very educational thread and am grateful for the sustained effort required to produce it. However, five questions keep springing to mind:
1. If the handicapper is as harsh as some say he is on good horses why do the top weights keep winning more handicaps than the bottom weights?
2. We all know the handicapper is disadvantaged by having to assume horses are running to the best of their ability and having to use a weights/lengths system that is very crude. What other system would be better?
3. The ‘system’ of backing horses that have been apparently manipulated down the handicap doesn’t seem to produce a profit. Does this mean the handicapper has got it about right?
4. Isn’t the game of spotting well-handicapped horses what it’s all about? A perfect handicapper would take a lot of the fun and profit out for many of us.
5. Does weight matter much anyway? A few pounds here or there isn’t a big factor in most races.
I know I have raised these issues on other threads in the past, but so far haven’t seen any convincing answers. On balance I think the handicapper could do better overall, but I think he is probably right to ‘punish’ winners with a lot of weight until there comes a point when top weights aren’t routinely the most likely winners.
Tuesday’s Qualifiers
ROLANTA
ORION EXPRESS
BEHERAYN
GLOBAL FLYERKasparov, I can answer number three now. It means many of the horses I’ve listed wouldn’t win races below the minimum grade. In other words, on most occasions, these ‘drops’ can’t do anything.
This thread still shows losing by 20l is rewarded more than losing by 6l, provided you have a trainer ‘smart’ enough to use it to their advantage.
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