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AP, I’m also not surprised Veuveveuvevoom was raised from 20 to 40. The BHA handicapping team love to rate horses ending in 0 – it was probably the horse they rated the race through.
Just a shame it couldn’t run in one of those new handicaps I’m creating – the -50 to -1 for many of these horses if they were rated on what they actually achieved before before they performed to some recognisable level.Aegean Dawn simply made British Horse Racing look stupid yesterday. Or should I say it made the handicapping and entry system look stupid? Never mind, RFC are here to bring this “nonsense” to a wider audience, although this stuff is all too complicated to be worth bothering with isn’t it? It was an uncompetitive race unless Aegean Dawn fell or broke down. Mille Chief would have made the race bordering on uncompetitive on his own.
5/6 day entry system, 48 hour declarations, handicap rating changes updated once a week and we use a standardised penalty system? You couldn’t make it up. That is before discussing the horses who are given ratings for running to 0, the ridiculous class dropping, numerous pointless adjustments in handicap marks.
The system is a complete mess. The response to my Canal Bank query should confirm that to even those who don’t understand handicapping as a science, which includes myself to some extent. We have the stewards asking about improvement in form (because they are required to do so) and we have the handicapping team sending a response about how brilliant their guesswork was, despite the fact that if they left Canal Bank‘s rating unchanged we would have had a “more competitive“ race.
Guess at 93? Horse PU – drop it 3lbs.
Maxillon, thanks for the information about Ramora. I don’t know how much the American suffix mattered – Monsun out of a mare who raced for a win on Turf in Ireland – but it didn’t hurt. It’s ok, I don’t think it was quite the Barney Curley style effort. My integrity services have discussed it with the handicapping team and decided we’re not going to hold an enquiry.
Sorry for the delay with tomorrow’s should be no-hopers.
Sunday’s Qualifier
A load of nearly horses – some have had their marks dropped for maiden hurdle runs, others are 1lb short of the 15lb drop for NH racing I’ve put in place.
I have been busy working out Phil Smith revised marks for the Haydock races that I watched back quickly on Sky+.
4yo Hurdle – featuring the new Istabraq, Clerk‘s Choice.
I came up with two options. Option number one is like this; pretend Clerk’s Choice ran to his new mark, revise the horses ratings’ to the following:
Carlito Brigante 170
Bocamix 160
Barizan 166
Clerk’s Choice 162
Ultimate 158Option number two (100X likelier) is like this; rate the race through Barizan, drop Clerk’s Choice 7lb:
Carlito Brigante 147
Bocamix 137
Barizan 143
Clerk’s Choice 155
Ultimate 133They have 12 people to do what I’ve just done sarcastically. The second one is what they will do, give or take a few lbs. Putting Barizan on 145 and being able to rate Carlito Brigante 150 is likely.
Firstly – field sizes. I’ve taken these down briefly from the RP, so there might be errors with NR.
Ffos Las – some people want this track to retain fixture numbers??? – 6, 7, 6, 5, 8, 6 and 8.
Kempton – 17, 3, 6, 5, 12, 6 and 10.
Ludlow – 6, 9, 8, 7, 7, 13 and 10.
That is terrible. More than half of the days races will take place with less than 8 runners.
It is clear novice chases need a re-think. £5,855 is put up for no good reason at Kempton for 3 runners.
£17,000 for a mares Listed hurdle at Kempton – it would have got the same field size for £10,000 to the winner.
I wonder how many the race would have got with prize money broke-down like this?
£10,000 = 1st
£6,000 = 2nd
£5,000 = 3rd
£4,000 = 4th
£3,000 = 5thThat comes to £28,000 – the total value of the race is £29,271.
Monday’s Qualifier
That is all I can find that I’m happy to put up.
I love these comedy pieces put up by the BHA.
I love my job, I really do – writes Martin Greenwood. Doing something I enjoy for a living is a real pleasure and isn’t something I take for granted. Not everything is rosy in my handicapping garden at all times though, and this week events have conspired against me somewhat, with two important handicap hurdles turning into one-horse horse affairs.
You don’t appear to be very good at it. Or you’re not under the Phil Smith system.
Hats off to the connections of both horses for using the system to the best advantage, though it’s a moot point whether it is conducive to the greater good of racing…
There’s nothing else worth mentioning this week. Menorah’s now 2lbs better than Cue Card.
Mr Greemdwood, It’s not events conspiring against you that produced the non competitive hurdle races, it’s the antiquated snail like system of updating handicap marks.
If you don’t like what the system produces, shouldn’t you campaign for change?
AP
He really should be campaigning for a change. Something along the lines of – "in my job I want to ensure racing is as competitive as possible, and after this incident there will be a full review with changes coming soon" – would be good.
Exploiting the system is not what the handicapping system should allow. All these examples of running off false marks just counteract the over-rating of horses in recent times to stop them building up sequences. The whole logic of it has been lost.
And if trainers/owners oppose changes; perhaps the self-interest Mr Greenwood said that exists would be highlighted.
Fixing the system can only be done when performance figures are published and are a factor in the entry system.
That is the problem – no one is willing to step up and make controversial decisions.
Wednesday’s Qualifiers
ONLY VINTAGE
WASNTME
PILGRIM DANCER
DILYS MAUD
PROHIBITION
WEALD PARKAnd that list sums up the sad state of British Horse Racing.
Thursday’s Qualifiers
LADY OF ASHCOTT
DIKTALINAThe two below are both one run and one pound off qualifying.
THE VICAR
Friday’s Qualifiers
SAM PATCH
That should be it. I see Peter Grayson is running some more of his top quality animals again today. They will never qualify…
And just doing some reviewing of recent events at BHA towers. As always, it is a pleasure to look through what they have done.
That "4yo Hurdle."
Clerk’s Choice was dropped 3lbs. Clerk’s Choice being dropped 3lbs is the type of pointless nonsense this system has created. There’s no more evidence to suggest he is a 159 horse than a 162 horse, is there?
Carlito Brigante appears to have been untouched on 140. Amazing.
Barizan was dropped 3lb. As amazing.
Bocamix was raised to 130. The horse was dropped 11 lbs for no good reason for clearly not running his race, but ending the number in a 0 is a must where possible.
Ultimate is now rated 131.
Winners 1/20
Placed 5/20Profit/Loss at SP -11pts
Profit/Loss at Early Prices -11pts
Jose,
With no qualifiers to watch today, you can enjoy the delicate way the handicappers have dealt with Whispering Ridge, who runs in div 2 of the seller at Wolves.
Having finished last in all of his first five races, he was rated 28. Then he had the temerity to beat a rival (who started 100-1) in a maiden at Wolves earlier this month.
Detecting obvious signs of steady improvement, our interpid heroes eliminated any chance of the connections landing a betting coup from a mark of 28, by raising him to 32.
One can but hope that such a level of dedication to scientific accuracy will be properly rewarded when the BHA annual Xmas bonuses are doled out ….
AP
The type of scientific accuracy we’ve come to expect. Just what is the point when they never run off 28/32 as the rules prevent that?
Whispering Ridge before tonight has a best RPR of 13 on the AW. The winner of that maiden is rated 65.
Clearly our scenically gifted heroes did the following – rate the winner ending in 0 or 5.
Then do the following calculation for Whispering Ridge 65 – (1.75*24) + 8 = 31.
Move Whispering Ridge up-to 32.The strange part is that this horse is now rated on what they believe it has run to. Canal Bank, Jeu De Roseau, April Fool, Emirate Isle etc, regardless of whether a “coup” took place, were rated on nothing whatsoever other than the logic of – it might have been outclassed. At 50l+ for some of them, I would love to know why they believe 3lbs will make any difference. I’ve posted the Canal Bank response. It’s staggering.
A Christmas bonus? They can all have an advent calendar….
And just one other thing now I’m awake, due to operating on a different time zone thanks to a certain sporting event, surely it is time Horse Racing got a system of deserved meritocracy in place where prize money and grading is concerned?
The “Graded” system in NH racing is ridiculous. With no stud value at stake 99.9% of the time in NH racing, the Hennessy Gold Cup should be run as a Grade 1 Handicap. The same as the Grand National also should be. Surely the significance of the race, along with the prize money, means the race should be a Grade 1 Handicap?
The Challow Hurdle, Finale Juvenile Hurdle, Scilly Isles’ Novices Chase and Tolworth Hurdle have Grade 1 status. To put it politely, I’ve never felt like any of them feel like Grade 1 races in 6 years of watching.
£51k for a Grade 1, open Hurdle today did little to suggest prize money is a major factor in producing quality racing as far as levy arguments go.
Thanks Jose – this is fascinating.
I am trying to work out how much money one can make at this activity if one is an owner or trainer. It costs a fair bit to keep a horse in training, then you have to enter it for 3 races where you know it won’t win any prize money, then you have to find a race it might win. It sounds like a dicey way to make a living. I suppose gambling on it could be profitable but it would probably cause reputational damage in the long run. Also why make it so complicated? Isn’t it simpler to just get a friend to lay the horse when you know it’s not trying, then you can put it any race you like?
I’ve got to be careful with exactly what I say.
If it costs somewhere around £15-20k to keep a horse in training each year, and you’re racing for £2k per race, why not take the shot at landing a gamble from bigger prices down?
Trainers in this sport gain a bigger reputation for being able to “place one well.” Training a racehorse is one thing; getting it to win is another.
Laying your own horse is, of course, illegal under the rules of racing. How successful the authorities are at tracking it, I don’t know. The authorities do have a serious problem where proving a horse hasn’t tried is concerned. And there is nothing illegal about an owner or trainer backing a horse… no matter how bad previous runs have been.
The bigger priced horses with this idea might provide some betting value because you know they once had the required ability in a better grade. By not performing at all compared to that previous ability, they are ignored by the markets.
When these horses win, regardless of whether they have been plotted up, I don’t think it does Horse Racing any good. Sad to say, it promotes not trying and creates huge theories from "outsiders" like myself. That is not to say big priced horses shouldn’t win – you should just know there was no motive to have form figures of 089090.
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