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I’ve thought for sometime about posting this thread, but I will do now.
First of all, this is purely research over a topic I have been fed up with for some time. Secondly, I couldn’t care less for British horse racing.
The area I am fed up with is seeing horses dropped progressive amounts for being beaten out of sight. Illogical amounts imo.
Because, like the following three horses below, horses are dropped these amounts, re-appear like a miracle has occurred, and are backed off the boards to win.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=621109
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=717915
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=661378
Some will link two of these horses to Barney Curley. Yes, but there was another horse who won at Wincanton over hurdles with similarly ridiculous "nonsense."
I’m not looking for horses who have been dropped 1lb, 2lb etc for one run, I’m looking for those who are dropped at least 10lb over time with flat racing and 15lb with NH racing. I want them beaten so far on at least 3 occasions they have demonstrated seemingly no comparable ability with their previous efforts yet have been dropped.
And from this I will spot the horses who fit into the profile, put the horses up on this thread, and see how it does from a "money" viewpoint.
I will note horses both before and after races who have fitted in/are going to do soon if they continue.
This should fail, but I want to see how badly it fails starting on Saturday.
Perhaps only a few horses will fit the criteria of –
3 awful runs, beaten so far the horse barely showed any ability at all in relation to its’ previous mark before it started dropping, dropped 10/15lbs dependant on the code.Jose,
Interesting idea – just to clarify, are you looking for any three awful runs, or specifically for three runs in a handicap.
E.g. – Am I Blue had three runs in handicaps, so clearly fits your criteria. But would you also include a horse given an initial mark on the basis of three runs in maidens, assuming it had been tailed off in all three?
AP
Reviewing some of the criticisms of the BHA handicappers of late I was thinking that if they do such a poor job, if they make the amount of errors that seems to be percieved, why isn’t finding handicap winners relatively easy?
Jose,
To start the ball rolling, does Quaestor, 9:20 Wolverhampton Friday fit the bill?
AP
Reviewing some of the criticisms of the BHA handicappers of late I was thinking that if they do such a poor job, if they make teh amount of errors that seems to be percieved, why isn’t finding handicap winners relatively easy?
Point taken, Cormack. And I’m focusing on a specific area I have criticised. But if they made 14 "errors" for a race with 14 runners, what "error" is greater would be the challenge?
Jose,
Interesting idea – just to clarify, are you looking for any three awful runs, or specifically for three runs in a handicap.
E.g. – Am I Blue had three runs in handicaps, so clearly fits your criteria. But would you also include a horse given an initial mark on the basis of three runs in maidens, assuming it had been tailed off in all three?
AP
A minimum of 3 awful runs after the horse has been allotted a mark for now. The other idea is interesting.
Jose,
To start the ball rolling, does Quaestor, 9:20 Wolverhampton Friday fit the bill?
AP
Yes. It does fit the bill. Perfectly in fact. 33/1 currently, which is what I think we would expect these horses to be because most punters are short-sighted – understandably, of course.
Well I suppose we are sort of under way.
Quaestor finished 3rd at an SP of 20/1. It doesn’t mean a whole lot at this stage but well worth recording all the same.
Just to explain; to record the success/failure, I will just level stake at the biggest win odds available in the morning and the returned SP. So two ways of judging it. I could use Betfair, but I’m not going to over-complicate it all.
I know this thread will end up doing a better job than the BHA’s integrity team can manage.
Now for tomorrow.
Qualifiers
Ayr – None.
A few who will be joining the list for next time as they are getting near the threshold.
Catterick – None again.
An honroubale mention to the divided handicap where a few were getting close –
Ten To The Dozen
would have been a certainty if not for beating a few home in 4th last time out.
Newbury – None again
I suspect
Tartan Gigha’s
not far from being eligible soon, despite being relatively high class for this type of thing. Thrashed, trashed and another trashing will see him worthy of the 5lb BHA class drop.
Newmarket – None again.
Karaka Jack
is on the verge of joining the list. And I suspect if
Shipmaster
runs another poor race after this comeback, he will get the 5lb "class drop" when he’s beaten 20 lengths.
Wolverhampton
7:50
Grand Stitch
was 1lb off qualifying. Many others soon will.
9:20 As far as I’m concerned,
has qualified.
Rated 74 on the 12th June, finished last at Sandown, beaten 20 lengths in a 4 runner race, which is where I reckon he has got this current mark from, 12 3/4 lengths again at Doncaster when receiving weight from everything, around 16 lengths again at Beverley. Now 62. A career low after being regularly hammered.
If anyone thinks any other horse running tomorrow deserves a review, or perhaps I’ve missed it, just post below.
Jose,
When looking at the last run by Hallstatt, I noticed a prime example of a horse dropped when it ran miles below any sort of rateable form. Check out the treatment of Motarid – at Beverley, he was tailed off, ‘virtually pulled up’ according to the form book and finished 28L behind the penultimate horse.
Fot that he was dropped 12lbs from 60 to 48, having already gone from 72 to 60 in two previous starts this year. He’s not running today, but he’ll certainly qualify, assuming the trainer can find a race he can get into off 48!
AP
Motarid will be an even better qualifier than Hallstatt, who has at least shown he can gallop in the year currently known as 2010.
I think that is the one thing I still can’t comprehend, AP. The type of horses I will be listing are continuously being dropped for running no type of "rateable" race. And if these performances are "rateable," the horses in question after the types of three consecutive runs will end up with marks of 10, 15, 26, 33, 37 etc. But, no, they get the class dropping system Phil Smith sort of explained in the Q&A. Being dropped for being beat the length of the home straight at some tracks?
Some won’t like this statement but it encourages not trying. And when horses who fit this criteria are trying, they can only be suffering severely physically, which is just as alarming.
What I found amazing when going through it as thoroughly as I can when looking at Caulfield and Rosehill cards last night was the amount of horses dropped various amounts (rather inconsistently) for being "thrashed." Look at Tartan Gigha. Double figure (in lengths) defeats in 5 runs over 1m 2 1/2f and less? Dropped 4lb so far. I don’t deny he has done something similar before, but why drop him 4lb?
Hallstatt (top price 20/1) was a "generous" qualifier today, but he did fit all the criteria.
finished 2nd – returned 8/1 from top odds early on of 20/1.
I’ll take a look at tomorrows cards later on. From my first glance it looked hard to find one that fitted.
I’m going to update the statistics weekly.
No horses for tomorrow that meet the criteria.
Always Baileys (2:50 Uttoxeter) is one of the worst horses ever to race, and is running from outside of the handicap tomorrow, but the way he has been rated has been interesting.
Horses for Monday EDIT
– 3:40 Hamilton 78-65 – 66/1 with Boylesports.
– 4:20 Leicester 75-63 – 20/1 with Bet365 early on.
– 5:50 Leicester 76-65 – Non Runner
Listed in the morning will be their top odds. I don’t think any of them have the slightest hope of winning, and Celestial Tryst has the best hope, but they all fit the criteria. Other horses who don’t fit the requirements exactly, but aren’t far off, clearly have a better chance of winning tomorrow, sadly.
A surprisingly good amount of "trying" horses listed tomorrow.
The Midshipmaid fits. Huge predicted price, but so these horses should be. After all, I’m looking for horses who have a miraculous return to form so long losing runs are to be expected, I would have thought.
Reviewing some of the criticisms of the BHA handicappers of late I was thinking that if they do such a poor job, if they make the amount of errors that seems to be percieved, why isn’t finding handicap winners relatively easy?
It is Cormack, if you know when that horse is trying. The bottom end of the handicap is a disgrace but when there is so little money in it and no end of executable loopholes, it will happen. Shame BHA are the only muppets who can’t see it.
Oh and good thread Jose, will keep an eye on this
Tuesday
The Midshipmaid
– 3:50 Folkestone
Top early price of 40/1 was available.
What this one is going to be playing at, I don’t know. 100% bemusing, which I suppose you sort of want with this type of thing, because the horse is going from 7f to 1m 7f 92y. Furthest the horse has run over is 1m 141y at Wolverhampton.
Was rated at a high of 59, now running off 45.
Probably running here over 1m 7f as it’s the only race they could get into without being eliminated. Races over her usual sort of trip attract massive numbers of entries at this time of year – even here, she’s only getting a run because the race was divided.
AP
Quite astonished a horse stepping up a mile in distance with that sort of profile was beaten only 8 lengths.
Now for Wednesday’s fun at tracking the worst horses in Britain. I’ll rephrase that – Britain’s quickest deteriorating horses.
Yorksters Prince
– 6:50 Kempton – 65-55
Beaten 8, 17, 12.5, 47 and 10.5l since this horse reached a peak rating, on either Turf or AW, of 66.
– 7:50 Kempton – 81-68
Beaten 11.5, 24, 24, 18 and 7.75l since running 2nd at Brighton. On face value, and having not watched any replays, the last run looks quite interesting compared to the rest. Either way, this horse qualifies.
Footstepsofspring
– 9:20 Kempton – 90-65
One of the most spectacular qualifiers. A horse who can’t gallop faster than I can walk judging by published results.
A sprinter who has been beaten 18.5, 12.5, 16, 12 and 15.5l.
Tell Halaf
– 9:20 Kempton – 74-62
30, 17, 30 and 39l in recent times. Back down from 9 to 6f.
Robby Bobby
– 4:35 Redcar – 81 (Turf), 90 (AW) – 70 (Turf)
13, 22 and 14.5l in the last three starts.
Some truly magnificent recent performances there, I’m sure everyone will agree.
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