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There is clearly something very wrong with BJK. He went from going well to being completely beaten in what seemed like a few strides, and we can’t blame the trip.
I am puzzled full stop. Is there a virus at Jackdaws, which horses have it, can we tke the form literally? Questions, questions? Was that WL’s form over an inadequate trip, plugged on, 3m is his trip. As for BJK, puzzled!!! Had him up with the pace,bad mistake, still going well, then out like a light, completely non plussed.As for Bob Hall – forget that run.
Rmember it’s only 2 years since tey closed down for 2 months, I wonder if they were tempted to do similar this year?I couldnt believe how fast Black Jack Ketchum dropped away.
The camera focused on the runners and i actually said "Where’s Black Jack Ketchum". The camera moved up a little bit from the ground and i saw another horses’ legs.
Couldnt believe it, i have no idea about this horse now, absolutely no idea.
I read with interest the above posts, comments made by the racing commentators and the press about the form of the Jonjo O’Neil stable.
I am no expert at paddock picking or form selecting but I do like to think I can form a view based on what I say rather than what I hear.
Lets take Black Jack today. It is very obvious the horse does not have a ‘trip’ all it does is gallop, but very slowly. champion hurdle suggestions were crazy. The fact the horse dropped back from 3m to 2m4 today – 10 days after a hard race at Ascot meant it was a complete lay. If Mccoy felt the horse was going to win, he would have been on it – mark my words. BJK was racing against Afsoun 3rd in the Champ Hurdle last year (maybe a horse without a trip as well) Blazing Bailey and some fairly decent top performers. It was a very good race and based on form – it ran to a mark of what it is. I know it was pulled up, but it didn’t jump that well. If you were ever to see the horse in the paddock you will notice it is not very attractive to look at, no real substance. Its a horse where the hype has raised expectations.
Wachita Lineman. This horse is a 3miler. 2m4 at Ascot last time was too short, especially against ‘speed’ animals (HE and Af) I think its run today 2nd, staying on after hitting a flat spot was good. The horse will be seen to better effect at 3miles – although I dont think will beat Inglis Drever – who is my cheltenham NAP.
Jonjos other runners. At Exteter – they did ok – a winner. Good Company had a tough task against Osolot.
The bumper horses which have been running have needed the run. If you saw Travel Guide at Warwick – loads of scope, immature in the paddock. Another Bottle – 2nd against a good horse at uttoxeter. Exotic Dancer, never settled, needs a right handed track. (they didnt go much of a gallopin the king G in my opinion. Exotic needs a pace set.
Olay Olay – caught a leicester – it was a step up in trip, did it stay?
basic fact won.
If you look at the last 2 weeks, the horse JJ has run have been big odds and yes a few of them featen, however he has not had many runners, and I will be happy to back them when a find one which has a FORM chance not when its based on trainer/jackey/owner names. i.e leaving the horses making debuts in novice hurdles, bumpers etc because you DON’T KNOW how good they are.jamessmith894,
Where do you get the idea that Exotic Dancer needs a right handed track?
jamessmith894 I don’t agree with you at all regarding Black Jack Ketchum. No one surely can believe that todays was his true running. Either there is something wrong with the horse physically or as I’m beginning to wonder – mentally?
I’ve been convinced since his novice days that he is really a two miler. Since then he’s been asked to run over three miles so often now a trip where he doesn’t finish his races, gets tired and possibly a bit fed up. Maybe he’s suddenly thought "Sod this I know whats coming I’m not going to keep having my lungs burst all the time". Very philosophical for a horse lol but you get my drift.
Perhaps the horse needs a change of stable or needs to find a way of loving the game again?
Just a theory.
jamessmith894,
Where do you get the idea that Exotic Dancer needs a right handed track?
He doesn’t he clearly is best going left handed.
Black Jack Ketchum is not giving his true running more often than not these days and would appear to be a horse with issues.
However, I think there are definite grounds for thinking that he has essentially been over-rated, based more on visual impressions in superficially top-class races rather than cold hard facts.
Just as an indication, a quick look at the best ever Topspeed figures recorded by today’s field tells a potentially interesting story…
Horse // Best TS Hurdle rating // 2nd Best TS Hurdle rating
FAASEL > 157 – 149
AFSOUN > 151 – 150
WICHITA LINEMAN > 150 – 138
REDEMPTION > 145 – 121
BLAZING BAILEY > 144 – 143
GASPARA > 126 – 121
BLACK JACK KETCHUM > 123 – 122[/color:6ruscq52]Without trying to pretend that these ratings are the last word in performance assessment (or anything of the kind), the clock suggests that BJK has never put in a top-class time. His best is the ‘worst best’ of the lot, and four of his rivals had a second-best performance of at least 14 spots better than BJK’s best.
Perhaps, he is simply slow and has hitherto been flattered by his earlier successes…
apologies – left handed, my mistake.
but the issue here is surrounding the form of Jonjo’s stable. based on what I said earlier I don’t think the stable are out of form. Everyone loves to hate Jonjo – why? 3 winners at the cheltemham festival last year and winners at Aintree.
apologies – left handed, my mistake.
but the issue here is surrounding the form of Jonjo’s stable. based on what I said earlier I don’t think the stable are out of form. Everyone loves to hate Jonjo – why? 3 winners at the cheltemham festival last year and winners at Aintree.
I don’t think its a case of "wanting to hate Jonjo". Someone made the point the other day if you put Paul Nicholls in charge of his string you’d get better results. Jonjo isn’t the greatest trainer around by a long way he doesn’t get the success he should from the ammunition he has.
In form / out of form O’Neill has had one winner from god knows how many runners.
I dont believe Jonjo has the same amunition as P N. Jonjo surprisingly I know, has had the fewest runners c/f pipe, nicholls, king over the past 6 weeks.
I had an interesting conversation at Celtenham a few years ago, with someone that had lived and farmed within two miles of Jackdaws Castle all their life.
Apparently, farmers from the area with knowledge of stock (sheep or cattle in their case) felt that the stables were built in the wrong place. The piece of land used has the reputation as a low lying area that attracted disease due to being damper than the surrounding hills and with little or no movement of air. Farmers would use the land fro grazing in mid summer, but never at other times of the year.
Whether that has any relevance, I’ve no idea, being 100% townie by birth and upbringing. But it certainly sounded persuasive to me as my own trainer was having problems with his horses whilst renting a yard that sat right next to a river. When he moved to a custom built stable 150 feet higher up on the side of the valley, the health of the horses was transformed within a few weeks.
AP
All I can say is you hit the nail right in the head…………Shocking performance from two of the best in the yard……I want to say more but can’t………….FFFFFFFFFFF
Mate the man is tearing his hair out wondering what to do next…not that he’s got much hair to lose
……..They have some lovely horses but there’s a bug going round and hopefully the winter ice and snows will kill its ass…Everything seems fine until they are asked the question then they are all stopping as if shot…This **** can happen to any yard………….all they can do is wait and eventually things will come good again…….It will go as quick as it came and all of a sudden the winners will start flowing again…………there is no big master plan here you are being a bit airy fairy there.You were going along fine until you said "Jonjo is giving the horses an easy time and not really putting everything into getting them to winning"
If one could win a decent price right now then I can lkive with that
But that’s just it, it doesn’t happen to every yard, or at least not as often as it does to Jonjo.
Either O’Neill really isn’t in the same league as the likes of Nicholls, Pipe and King, and McManus’s faith is seriously misplaced, or he’s avoiding the realisation that there is a real problem at Jackdaws Castle. Of course it could be a combination of the two, but either way something has to be done if only for the welfare and safety of the horses – to keep running them, short of full health let alone full fitness, is negligent at best.
Twelve-to-eighteen months ago there looked to be some serious talent at Jonjo’s disposal – Exotic Dancer, Don’t Push It, Wichita Lineman and Black Jack Ketchum the stand-outs – and the severity of the drop in their achievements (Exotic Dancer aside) can’t be down to them having been over-hyped in the first place. Black Jack Ketchum’s fall from grace has been particularly disappointing, given the level of form he showed when annihilating the likes of Blazing Bailey (beat him on the bridle, giving away 6lb, in the Relkeel just over a year ago) and I can’t believe this is purely down to O’Neill’s training abilities and the fact that he’s just not that good.
I am confident that the Jonjo runners will do much better at the Cheltenham Festival.
Exotic Dancer is my bet.
BJK is on my list of " hyped, but hopeless", I’m afraid. Very poor today, imo.
Sean Rua.
It’s a difficlt one this, we all know that JP is tremendously loyal, but he’s nobodys fool, but if I were him or his Racing Manager I’d start spreading more of the horses around, it makes sense, not only that I’d also maybe move a few of the current decent horses that he has at Jonjo’s. It’s a tough one because he obviously doesn’t want to hurt Jonjo’s feelings, as we all know Jonjo is one of the games nice guys. I’m still mystified by the run of BJK, I still think he has ability, even at Aintree in April he came 2nd to Mighty Man beating Inglis Drever, even then I wasn’t convinced he stayed, and I don’t think he has been overated, but something is definatey amiss.
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