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A little play on Hugo Palmer’s Short Squeeze in the next at Ponte. He is very highly regarded this one and he was hoping there wouldn’t be too much rain which it seems there hasn’t. The fav could be different class and is a 3 year old so I have done a forecast as well.
£35ew Short Squeeze – 11-2 – 4.00 Pontefract placed
£15 rev f/c Short Squeeze and Lets Go£6,138.60
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
With the ground coming right for him 14-1 is far too big for Ascription in tomorrow’s Lennox Stakes. Dutch Connection and Tupi won’t like the conditions so this unexposed colt is good ew value.
£50ew Ascription – 14-1 – Lennox Stakes – Glorious Goodwood loser
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Fascinating to watch the betting for the KG. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ground ends up heavy as there is still plenty of rain to come and that would surely mean the fav withdrawn. As it is he is now as long as 10/11. Clever Cookie into 8’s in a place.
With all this rain around and with more forecast for Sunday I have gone in on Solow for next week’s Sussex. I think he would give Gleneagles a great race whatever the conditions but if it is softer then good I expect him to win it well.
£200 win Solow – 7-4 – Sussex
That 7-4 looks tasty now that Gleneagles is out!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So you will all think “Hugo’s his new Henry” and you may be right but I think he might have a very good day tomorrow. As well as Ascription he has a great chance in the juvenile race immediately before that. Galileo Gold has improved each time and crucially he will handle the conditions no problem unlike some of his rivals like Birchwood for example. He should go close.
£50ew Galileo Gold – 6-1 – 2.35 Goodwood. winner
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
As much as I am happy with my 14-1 about Ascription I look at the race and just can’t get away from Dutch Connection as the more likely winner. He ticks all the boxes I have recently been looking for as he is a 3 year old racing against his elders over what is surely his best trip on ground he will handle and has rock solid form. His Jersey win was excellent in itself but he trumped that next time out when being beaten only half a length by Territories. This is superb form and puts him right up there with the best of his generation. Add to that the favourite is surely at home over further than this 7 furlongs and I think you have a horse who should be 6-4 rather than 5-2. I still think Ascription will go well and get in the first three but I am struggling to see how he can beat DC.
£150 win Dutch Connection – 5-2 – Lennox Stakes loser
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A nice winner and no complaints in the Lennnox. The winner did it well and deserved it after running so well so many times this year. I wonder if the small change in weights is just tipping the balance away from the 3 year olds now?
I want to have one more bet today. Strong Steps has been waiting for a bit of cut and I think he is still improving. His trainer has won this race the last two years and I think he could make it the hat trick today.
£50ew Strong Steps – 9-2 – Goodwood 5.30 placed
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
£6,219.85
A small profit on the day and a nice run from the consistent Strong Steps in the last there.
I have been looking at the Sussex tonight wondering if I can justify another bet on top of the one on Solow but I am struggling. I have 3 horses running that have served me well this year. Arod has been brilliant the last twice but he was very entitled to win those two races and he takes on much tougher opposition tomorrow. Even so if the ground was quick I would have been tempted as I am convinced he will win a Group 1 at some point, I just don’t think it will be tomorrow. I also have a suspicion that 9 or 10f is his best trip. I backed Night Of Thunder at Newbury and he did me proud and he will appreciate that little bit of an easier surface tomorrow but can you really see him bridging the gap on the favourite? I picked out Solow right at the start of the season as my horse to follow and he has done nothing to let me down. He is a beast this horse and I think if he was able to win on that quick ground at Ascot he should win this even more comfortably. I only put £200 on him as Gleneagles would have been a big threat and I hope that one’s connections are looking at the drying conditions thinking “why did we do that?!!!” So it is Solow all the way for me and I think he will be followed home by NOT with Arod staying on from the front for 3rd.
I can only see one other race to interest me. I had a famous 1,2 when Space Age and Scottish met at Royal Ascot and I fancy the latter to run a big race tomorrow. He is very unexposed and will like the easier conditions. He gets a 3lb swing from his rival and, watching the race again just now, there is no doubt that Space Age got first run on him last time. I think he may reverse the form. Of course there is the small matter of Highland Reel to contend with but he ran such a pig of a race last time after sweating up beforehand so I couldn’t back him with any confidence and I think he is worth taking on.
£35ew Scottish – 8-1 – 2.35 Goodwood. placed
Already bet – £200win Solow – 7-4 – 3.10 Goodwood. winner"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
£6,604.85
A great win for Solow – very satisfying to have a 7-4 winner go off at 2-5. For me both he and Arod would be even better over another furlong or two. Arod ran so well and he will be winning his Group 1 soon enough no doubt. It’s so much about foresight this game. Just watched all the replays and Scottish ran a super race as well. Just got outclassed. I see SDS also rode 4 so my bet is looking better and better. A good day all in all tinged by a lot of sadness at the death of the great, great Sir Peter.
Not sure about tomorrow yet, looks tricky apart from my mate Shalaa of course.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
well done jonibake.
I have been betting 40 odd years now and still cant get my head around Goodwood(dont know now wether its a mental block).One bet so far this week(loser) and no bet again today.Looks interesting for tomorrow,anyway enough of this old codgers mental blocks.GL and keep up the good work
Thanks Nwalton. It’s definitely not an easy track and not one of my favourites to visit to be honest. Lots of hard luck stories. My first visit was about 35 years ago when Lester won on Sir Henry’s Vacarme only to be disqualified for barging through. I remember being gutted but not as gutted as the owner who withdrew all his horses from the UK in protest! My second and last visit was Frankel’s 2nd Sussex. It took me over an hour and a half to park and I missed the first 2 races. I left as soon as Frankel had done the business.
Like the first 2 days I am just concentrating on the 2.35 and 3.10 Group races, the handicaps are far too complicated for me!
Shalaa is easily my favourite 2 year old of the season so far. I was a bit concerned about his price today after backing him at 14’s last time but I have just watched the replay of the Newmarket race and he was so much the best horse that day. He travelled so powerfully and the winning margin would have been a lot more but for his last furlong swerve. He’s definitely got a little bit about him but I think he is a proper Group 1 horse so I am backing him with confidence. I have a little feeling Riflescope might run into a place under SDS so I’ve had a little ew on him and done a couple of forecasts.
In the Goodwood Cup I am taking a chance on another horse who can sometimes be a bit of a rogue. I saw Pallasator when I went to Ascot at the start of the season I was really impressed by his enormous size and presence. He ran a stinker on the fast ground that day but I think he is still quite unexposed and might just run a big race if he is the mood. That is a big IF but his price is appealing.
£200 win Shalaa – 6-4 – Richmond Stakes winner
£35ew Riflescope – 10-1 – Richmond Stakes loser
£20 st f/c Shalaa/Riflesope and Shalaa/Log Out Island
£35ew Pallasator – 9-1 – 3.10 Goodwood Cup loser"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good luck with Shalaa Joni, sometimes a horse just sends shivers down your spine, he is one of them.
When I saw him in the paddock at Newmarket 30th May he looked like a 3yo and later in the winners enclosure there was no way John Gosden could hide how proud he was of this colt that he described as ‘work in progress’ last time out.
Good class field today but Log Out Island for me needs to prove himself over 6 furlongs before I would back him and Steady Pace needs to improve a lot to reverse placings with him in the July Stakes last time out but feel that might be my forecast.
Sticking with Trip to Paris again in the Goodwood Cup but Big Orange made a huge impression at Newmarket LTO and has to be feared, he caught my eye in the paddock at Newmarket and dotted up at 25/1 (from 50’s) big brute of a gelding by Duke of Marmalade, again unproven at the distance but Goodwood will suit his style of running.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Thanks Jac. Big Orange certainly did it well last time and has to be feared if he can repeat that level of form. I knew you were a big fan of Shalaa but didn’t know you had seen him in the flesh. I saw him that first time at Newbury and he looked very imposing but ran a stinker. Still it was interesting that JG had decided to start him off in a conditions event and that he he went off 7-2! Fingers crossed hey?!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
He did that REALLY well didn’t he Jac?!!! Lovely horse. Shame they are going to keep him to sprints but probably the right decision.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Over the moon with him Joni and I just missed out on the forecast too..never mind.
Shalaa did us proud didn’t he such a lovely looking horse, wonder where he will go next?
Keep up the good work…Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...That 6f Group 1 in France followed by the Middle Park apparently. You picked the first two in the Goodwood Cup as well you clever thing!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
How well do you think Shalaa can progress next year. I’d be slightly worried with his size and the amount of times he might run this year that he could be a head and shoulders above the rest 2 year old…???
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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