Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › Joni’s Poni’s Season 3
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May 31, 2014 at 07:44 #480658
Yes some anxious moments Steve and I doubt he would have won had the big two ran! Well done on MC!
Looking at today and it looks quite trappy. I was umming and ahhing about Cubanita but that Astonishing is capable of producing some astonishing as she did at Newmarket last backend so will leave that one alone.
Lady C has a few chances and I think Flow will go well as they are aiming him at the Royal Hunt and probably want his weight to go up a bit but I also like Cosseted in that race so again will leave alone.
The only bet I am putting up is The Mighty Yar. He is expected to be better than a handicapper and he won well last time out. There are a couple of negatives though in that he doesn’t get the brilliant Ryan Moore this time and the ground is a bit softer. On the plus side he was only really getting going over 10f last time so the step up should help and the ground is drying all the time.
£50 win The Mighty Yar – 3-1 Newmarket 3.35
£1,499.29
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 31, 2014 at 20:12 #480795Yes some anxious moments Steve and I doubt he would have won had the big two ran! Well done on MC!
Looking at today and it looks quite trappy. I was umming and ahhing about Cubanita but that Astonishing is capable of producing some astonishing as she did at Newmarket last backend so will leave that one alone.
Lady C has a few chances and I think Flow will go well as they are aiming him at the Royal Hunt and probably want his weight to go up a bit but I also like Cosseted in that race so again will leave alone.
The only bet I am putting up is The Mighty Yar. He is expected to be better than a handicapper and he won well last time out. There are a couple of negatives though in that he doesn’t get the brilliant Ryan Moore this time and the ground is a bit softer. On the plus side he was only really getting going over 10f last time so the step up should help and the ground is drying all the time.
£50 win The Mighty Yar – 3-1 Newmarket 3.35
I picked Mighty Yar as well Joni and I couldn’t believe how ponderous a mover he looked. I had never actually seen him run before and on today’s evidence he needs further.
Cubanita was very disappointing today. I have backed three of Ralph Beckett’s this week and every one of them ran poorly.
I am hoping for a good performance from Prince Gibraltar tomorrow, after having a speculative bet at 20/1 for The Arc. Treve aside it looks very open this year and unless this Australia IS a wonder horse over a mile and a half, I think there might be value in the 20/1 about Jean-Claude Rouget’s colt if he can win the French Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
June 5, 2014 at 17:44 #481188Well Stevie I’ll be thinking of you tomorrow with that lovely 33-1 voucher on Taghrooda. Best of luck mate!!!She is my only bet as I think she has a great chance and 4-1 now looks very tasty given the ground is guaranteed to be good.
I saw her win at Newmarket and I was with a French friend who was having his first experience of racing. As Taghrooda walked round my mate said "wow! That one will win." She looked like a colt and looked head and shoulders above the rest. Ok so it transpires it wasnt much of a race but the way she ran through the line told me she is going to love the extra 2 furlongs tomorrow. Johnny G loves her and he has some very good fillies this year. I expect her to win well.
Dangers? Well obviously Aiden’s filly has the best form now but I am not sure that was such a hot race and I am not sure she will even stay. It was interesting that Aiden dropped her in trip after her debut and I think she might struggle to bounce back from a hard race less than 2 weeks ago. The one I would probably most fear is Ithimal. I have always been a fan of this one and she ran a great trial in the Guineas. Again though I would have my doubts that 12f is her best trip and I think she might be outstayed.
£100 ew Taghrooda – 4-1 Oaks
Hacked up didn’t she?! Has to be a serious player in King George/Arc after that."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 7, 2014 at 08:25 #481402So after a poor start the thread is chugging along nicely now. I was seriously impressed with Taghrooda yesterday and delighted for Johnny G and especially for Richard Hills – that interview was very emotional wasn’t it?
The big day today and I am still looking out the window and waiting to see if any of these big storms are going to hit. If they don’t it surely has to be Australia. That Guineas form is as good as it gets and he is a certain stayer but it is very interesting to see Ladbrokes going 2-1 about him and 6-1 about his stablemate. That worries me a little. I’ll hold my bets for another hour or two. In the meantime I have had a little ew on Orchestra at 16’s with PP. I loved the way this one travelled at Chester before getting tired and my guess is there is not much between this one and GC.
Elsewhere one of my favourite horses attempts yet another G1 as Cirrus runs in the Coronation. He must take all the beating. One other bet is over at Doncaster where Satellite runs. This one used to be with Sir Henry and was very well regarded. Watch the video of his last run and you’ll be amazed how he managed to finish 4th as he completely took off with Frankie. Obvioulsy he has to settle a whole lot better today but I am betting that the hood does the trick and if it does he’ll hack up in this company. So at the moment:
£100 win Satellite – 5-2 3.45 Doncaster
£25 ew Orchestra – 16-1 – Derby
£85 win Cirrus Des Aigles – Evens – Coronation
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 7, 2014 at 09:03 #481427Just as Laddies go 7-4, Bet365 go 2’s. I’ll take that.
£200 win Australia – 2- 1 – Derby
Well not sure he is the best ever but he won well. 2’s was a great price! Delighted for CDA as well. A great weekend!"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 7, 2014 at 17:43 #481557Just thinking who I’d fancy if it came down to Australia v Taghrooda. Might just side with the filly you know!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 8, 2014 at 21:20 #481712Well Stevie I’ll be thinking of you tomorrow with that lovely 33-1 voucher on Taghrooda. Best of luck mate!!!She is my only bet as I think she has a great chance and 4-1 now looks very tasty given the ground is guaranteed to be good.
I saw her win at Newmarket and I was with a French friend who was having his first experience of racing. As Taghrooda walked round my mate said "wow! That one will win." She looked like a colt and looked head and shoulders above the rest. Ok so it transpires it wasnt much of a race but the way she ran through the line told me she is going to love the extra 2 furlongs tomorrow. Johnny G loves her and he has some very good fillies this year. I expect her to win well.
Dangers? Well obviously Aiden’s filly has the best form now but I am not sure that was such a hot race and I am not sure she will even stay. It was interesting that Aiden dropped her in trip after her debut and I think she might struggle to bounce back from a hard race less than 2 weeks ago. The one I would probably most fear is Ithimal. I have always been a fan of this one and she ran a great trial in the Guineas. Again though I would have my doubts that 12f is her best trip and I think she might be outstayed.
£100 ew Taghrooda – 4-1 Oaks
Hacked up didn’t she?! Has to be a serious player in King George/Arc after that.Well done in keeping the faith Joni. Not many seemed to fancy her really and it always amazes me when a previously unheralded horse such as Marvellous, who pops up at a price in really soft ground, always seems to be said to have improved dramatically, rather than taking the more cautious view that it might just have been the ground.
Homecoming Queen hosed in at Newmarket in the 1000 G at big odds on the soft and went up 15lbs in the ratings on the back of it. She went off fav for her next two races and was beaten more than 23 lengths in total.
If I had one piece of advice for punters it would be not to get carried away with impressive looking winners in the mud but it won’t stop them hammering in to the next wide margin gutters winner!
You have been sparing with your selections and putting the money down at the right time Joni. I wouldn’t be your bookie mate!
All the best for the rest of the season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
June 9, 2014 at 08:39 #481754Thanks Stevie – yes that soft ground Irish Guineas form did look suspect but I think even more than that she had a really hard race. Of course Aiden is a master trainer but I DO think he could do with being more patient at times especially with his fillies. Just my opinion but the likes of Sir Henry and Sir Michael would never have contemplated such a quick turnaround and their record speaks for itself. Still there is ONLY one Oaks I suppose and he was a bit thin on the ground this years after Tapestry and Bracelet flopped at Newmarket.
You deserve all the credit for Taghrooda mate as you were there long before me but I do have to say there is nothing like seeing a horse in the flesh to give you that confidence in backing them next time. She really did look a picture at Newmarket and I think she could mix it with the colts later this year if they decide to go down that route.
As for the thread – yes very selective. I hardly watch a race during the week unless there is a decent meeting on and so I am by and large sticking to the best horses and the best races. So far so good and REALLY looking forward to Royal Ascot. Happy punting Stevie!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 11, 2014 at 08:31 #481961I see Lady Cecil has four running at Haydock today and they must all have chances. There are no decent prices to be had though I am a big fan of Sea Meets Sky and think she will take a lot of beating in the last.
£80win Sea Meets Sky 11-8 Haydock 4.40
£2,469.29
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 11, 2014 at 08:49 #481965AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 764
I’m with you on the Lady Cecil filly Joni, have her in a cheeky treble.
Well done with your results so far this season!
June 11, 2014 at 10:53 #481979Thanks Ben! Good luck with that treble!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 13, 2014 at 08:49 #482172Not much happening at the moment but one horse that caught my eye last time runs at a decent price today. Tabreek looked a decent prospect winning at Newbury and I have had a cheeky ew.
£50ew Tabreek 13-2 2.30 York
£2,369.29
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 14, 2014 at 17:40 #482402A poor days racing today I thought but all geared up for next week. Tomorrow is the Prix Diane and I am surprised to see Miss France as long as 9-2. She is all class this filly and I think she will be suited by the step up.
£50ew Miss France – 9-2 Prix Diane
Remind me not to bet on French racing. She got no run and was staying on nicely. Might not have won but would have placed."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 15, 2014 at 18:39 #482504I see Freddie Head has supplemented
Anodin
for the Queen Anne. I have been looking for an ew bet in this race as I think there could be a shock on the cards. Obviously Toronado is the best horse and should win comfortably but it will be his first run of the year and he disappointed last time out. Aiden’s horse will surely improve but he surely has to! He was beaten fair and square by Tulius who is not a top class horse. I wonder if he is that fast. Anodin is fresh off a very decent effort behind CDA where he had Olympic Glory several lengths behind. That one didnt stay but he wasn’t beating Anodin over a mile that day and OG beat both the above comfortably.
Freddie wouldn’t be stumping up £35,000 if he didn’t think his horse had some sort of chance and 16-1 looks really tasty about a horse who will have his optimum conditions.
£50ew Anodin – 16-1 – Royal Ascot Queen Anne
£2,379.29
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 17, 2014 at 20:35 #482768A great day today and some truly classy performances from Toronado and Kingman. Licking my lips at the thought of those two coming up against each other in the Sussex. I was also delighted to see Sole Power win as it means I now have 2 selections in the top 11 in the TTTF as well as being in 2nd and 3rd in the monthly competition.
I’ll be there tomorrow and really can’t wait to see the world’s best racehorse. I actually quite fancy taking her on as a fast ground 10 furlongs at Ascot couldn’t be more different than a 12f slog at Longchamps and she is up against some serious opposition. The question is which one? I can’t honestly say I have decided yet and might just leave the race alone. The Fugue looks tempting ew value at 9’s but she does throw in the odd shocker. I am a big fan of Dank but this is a big step up for her and Magician is surely better than he has shown this year on slow ground. Perhaps the answer will come to me tonight in a dream. Or perhaps Treve will prove too classy for all of them.
Elsewhere on the card I have had a few fun bets listed below as I think there are more opportunities than today. The two I really fancy are the Yank horse (because they seem that much more speedy than ours) and Integral in the DOC. She has a weight pull with Sky Lantern who really needed her first run last year. The french horse is a danger but I think Integral will reverse that form with the benefit of a run. So:
£25ew Muwaary – 11-2 –
£15ew Giovanni Boldini 12-1 – Jersey Stakes
£50 win Spanish Pipedream – 11-4 –
£75 win Integral – 3-1 –
£15ew Sea Shanty – 22-1 –
£25ew Abseil – 6-1 – Royal Hunt Cup
£25ew Psychometry – 8-1 – Sandringham
loser -£50
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 18, 2014 at 09:35 #482828Well it didn’t exactly come to me in a dream but I have decided to get off the fence and have a bet in the POW. Treve will have to be exceptional to win today on this ground, over this trip, racing abroad for the first time and without her 3 year old allowance against specialist 10f horses. She might well be up to it but I’ll take an ew chance on two fillies who have everything in their favour and are decent prices.
£25ew The Fugue 9-1 – POW
£25ew Dank – 14-1 – POW
£2,799.91
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
June 18, 2014 at 19:55 #482934An absolutely fantastic day at Ascot today. Beautiful weather, beautiful women and fantastic racing – who could ask for more?! The thread is flying at the moment and I have an outside chance of winning the monthly TTTF competition to boot! Good times.
A few things I noticed today:
What a lovely man Prince Charles is. Whilst Queenie gets out of her carriage and meets the dignitaries, he talks to all the riders of the horses that carried them.
What a lovely man Sir Michael Stoute is. The first thing he did on entering the winners enclosure was congratulate Integral’s lass. It is good to see there are still gentlemen around.
The 2 standout horses in the paddock before the Queen Mary were the American horse and the winner. They were huge compared to the others. I was so confident about Spanish Pipedream that I went and topped up on my earlier bet. Then she missed the break and the rest is history. The winner is a fine looking filly though and was probably the best horse anyway.
The Fugue looked magnificent in the paddock and I reckon she was at full fitness. What a classy mare this is and she could take some beating over 10f if the ground stays fast. Magician also looked well and played a nice compliment to Noble Mission.
Treve looked fantastic in the paddock but I was not impressed with how she went down to post. She has a rather scuttly action and it is no surprise that she is so effective on soft ground. I read that they think something was wrong with her. Perhaps that what was it was but I certainly wouldn’t be running her on fast ground again if she were mine.
Sky Lantern DEFINITELY needed the race and I think it will be much closer if she meets the winner again in the Falmouth. Saying that I thought the winner won very easily and is still improving.
Abseil was very keen going down and has some maturing to do. Psychometry was given much too much ground to make up and probably wants further.
At first glance there’s not much for me tomorrow. Leading Light has to take all the beating in the big one but I couldn’t back him at those odds. I am a big fan of Brown Panther so if I have a bet it will be him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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