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So it looks like being very soft at the weekend so I have gone in again on
Noble Mission
. He will love the conditions and I’ll be interested to see how he goes fresh. James Doyle will have to get the tactics right as he tends to empty out but his best form this year gives him a very decent ew shout and I still think he has a really big one in him.
TGG will most likely not run and so the front two in the betting are the obvious dangers. I already have CDA at 7-2 and he must go close. Free Eagle is the dark horse. He looked very impressive last time despite beating nothing but it is that defeat by Australia that would have me worrying/ He looked ordinary that day and it may just be he needs time between his races. Plus the ground is an unknown although his breeding suggests he should go on it. He may well be different class but he is way too short for me.
Noble Mission should also get his own way out front and I hope he’ll run a great race and enable Warren Place to at least end the season on a high.
£125ew Noble Mission – 8-1 – Champion Stakes
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So I’m obviously very happy with my AP position on the Champion and I just can’t wait for the race now.
Here’s how I see it panning out –
Noble Mission leads at an easy pace on the ground. CDA sits just in behind. Coming out of Swinley Bottom JD starts to up the ante a bit and by the turn-in several are struggling already. As NM hits the straight he is at full tilt and has taken a couple of lengths out of the field. Approaching 2 out he has all bar CDA beat. As they enter the final furlong NM starts to tire and CDA comes powerfully alongside him. With CS looking cheekily over his shoulder for non-existant dangers he presses the button and CDA scoots clear to win comfortably by 3 lengths. NM holds on for a gallant second with Western Hymn staying on dourly for 3rd. Easy peasy.
Two other bets for Saturday at this stage.
I have always liked
Viztoria
and was kicking myself to have missed her last weekend. She has been waiting for this sort of ground and ran a great race in this last year finishing 3rd behind the mighty Slade Power. I’ll think she’ll give me a good ew run. I also like Gregorian but it may be too soft even for him.
It was hard not to be seriously impressed by
Silk Sari
lto. She absolutely routed her field in the style of a quickly improving filly. I fear Chiquita as they obviously think very highly of her but Silk Sari will take all the beating if she can show that lto wasn’t a fluke.
£50ew Viztoria – 7-1 – Sprint
£50ew Silk Sari – 5-1 – Fillies and Mares
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
2 final bets for today in the QEII.
Perhaps this is the time of year for
Kingsbarns
. He will certainly love the ground and I think he might stay on into a place.
Night of Thunder
will love the conditions and is a worthy favourite I think.
£150 win Night of Thunder – 11-4 – QEII
£35 ew Kingsbarns – 16-1 – QEII
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So I’m obviously very happy with my AP position on the Champion and I just can’t wait for the race now.
Here’s how I see it panning out –
Noble Mission leads at an easy pace on the ground. CDA sits just in behind. Coming out of Swinley Bottom JD starts to up the ante a bit and by the turn-in several are struggling already. As NM hits the straight he is at full tilt and has taken a couple of lengths out of the field. Approaching 2 out he has all bar CDA beat. As they enter the final furlong NM starts to tire and CDA comes powerfully alongside him. With CS looking cheekily over his shoulder for non-existant dangers he presses the button and CDA scoots clear to win comfortably by 3 lengths. NM holds on for a gallant second with Western Hymn staying on dourly for 3rd. Easy peasy.
I think you are under-estimating
Noble Mission
here Joni.’CDA’ beat him comfortably on pretty soft ground last year,you could say the Cecil horse has 6 lengths to make up on the French colt and that on paper seems a lot.But! ‘CDA’ has peaked,we know his level of form and Yes he’s the horse to beat and Yes he’s a smooth traveller who finds when asked.The difference though this year is we have a ‘different’
Noble Mission
,instead of the horse who was anchored last against ‘CDA’ and stayed on at the death, this year the Abdulla horse will be offski and ‘CDA’ will be cutting him down but will he catch him?……I hope not.
OH!!! MY!!! GOD!!!!
Words fail me! What a horse! And what bravery he had to show! I didn’t think he had that in him. When AK came at him I was sure he would finish 2nd. Couldn’t be happier for Warren Place! Great day!!!
£4,389.37
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Well I haven’t quite drunk two bottles of plonk like Gord but I am probably just as emotional as him tonight. What a wonderful race that was and what a heroic performance from Frankel’s little brother.
The race went exactly as I thought it would until they hit the straight. NM had most of them at it before they turned in and it was a 2 horse race all the way to the line – just with AK rather than CDA as I had thought. CDA didn’t run his race today but AK certainly did and it was great to see him back to his best as well. When he came upsides at the furlong pole I could only see one result. I was certain he would go past NM as NM has tired in just about every race this season. But the break since July clearly did him plenty of good as he kept finding and was well on top at the line.
I honestly haven’t been that happy about a result since Frankel and it was almost as gallant a performance as the great one put up in the same race.
The key when looking at this horse is that you HAVE to disregard all form up until his second run of this season when they changed tactics. Imagine if, like Forgotten Rules, we hadn’t seen him run until this year. He may well have been fighting CDA for favouritism. This year he beat Telescope twice easily and was in the process of thrashing Magician until he tired late on. That became a theme with JD riding him a touch too aggressively in his next races. He needed to get it exactly right today and to his credit he did.
My guess is he will still be under estimated by many as he won on desperate ground and a couple of his rivals didn’t perform but that is fine by me because it means he will still be backable next year if he stays in training. He wasn’t even in the TTTF lists this year, so little was thought of him.
A word about his mother.
Kind
has to be up there now as the best mare outside of Urban Sea. Remarkable.
If he stays in training next year I hope we will see him run on better ground as I honestly think he will still be top class on a faster surface. He is Kind’s son. He is Frankel’s brother. He is totally reformed thanks to a change of tactics and I am delighted for him and for Lady Cecil. Today might just have rescued Warren Place. I hope so!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
As for NM well it must surely be onwards and upwards. What is interesting is we still don’t really know how good these last two performances have been. People seem to be assuming that Telescope is not running to his best (see the RP review of the race) yet by all accounts he is a bigger, stronger, more relaxed horse this year. Ektihaam might not have run to his best but is there any reason to doubt that the rest did? Danadana was beaten 10 lengths. WHAT IF Telescope HAS improved but just run into what is now a very good horse? WHAT IF these new tactics have completely transformed the horse and he can now be relied on? We could now be looking at a Group 1 horse. That would be a nice surprise for a horse that didn’t even get into the list for the TTTF this year…….
Looking back over the thread and this is my favourite quote of the year back on May 8th. Good old Noble Mission won me over £3,800 this season! Let’s hope people keep under-estimating him next year as well.
A couple of weeks to go and not sure how many bets there’ll be but would love to crack the £5k just to keep Gord quiet!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
£150ew Cirrus Des Aigles – 7-2 Champion Stakes
£75ew Noble Mission – 12-1 Champion StakesBeing a student of psychology and legendary judge of Horses,Wine and Women I am going to give you Joni a free lesson in coaching.
I can see where you are coming from with the above bet……The ‘Frankel’ connection! Yes ‘CDA’ was one of the few to get near your Hero and your line of thought is…Well ‘Noble Mission’ just aint good enough to be compared to his Brother so you stake accordingly.In the scheme of things its not a great wager.TAPK the legend himself would have taken the ‘I reckon Noble Mission
will run em ragged’ approach and gone for the grand finale all Champagne corks poppin and Fireworks by havin £150 e/w on the Cecil horse and just a saver on ‘CDA’.Thats what those of us who follow you would have hoped for but psychologically you have had a setback with ‘Ectot’ and your confidence has taken a bashing.TAPK your King has preached from the highest pedastal about ‘Confidence is King’ and had yours been where it should be at this point of the thread ie,had ‘Ectot’ won the Arc you would have gone the TAPK route.If this thread ends up £5k in profit you have to be proud of yourself……..I know you are thinking ‘Yeh but TAPK achieves that in 4 days at Cheltenham’….Its not about me,I am a Freak! Your King is very proud of your achievements on here.
I think this is quote of the year Joni.
And this is thread of the year…..Well it will be if you break the £5k profit barrier. 
Fair enough Gord – it WAS a good quote I’ll give you that. Thanks mate!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Just looking back over the bets I put up this year and a few valuable lessons to learn:
1) Don’t bother backing horses abroad!!! I backed a total of 9 horses in 7 races abroad and won precisely none of them losing £1,100. Stick to what you know! France was especially bad with hard luck stories, falsely run races and those blasted stewards!!!!
2) Stick to Group races where you know the horses are giving 100% and it is much easier to read the form. My profit in all group races was £5,760 and I got Group 1 winners in 8 out of 19 G1’s in Britain and Ireland with a further 6 placed. I pretty much just broke even in listed races and lost in handicaps/maidens.
3) Go in large when confident. I probably picked less winners than in the previous two seasons but had good sized bets on a number of them. Have never got this "you must always bet level stakes" theory. Doesn’t work for me.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Just looking back over the bets I put up this year and a few valuable lessons to learn:
1) Don’t bother backing horses abroad!!! I backed a total of 9 horses in 7 races abroad and won precisely none of them losing £1,100. Stick to what you know! France was especially bad with hard luck stories, falsely run races and those blasted stewards!!!!
Another excellent thread Joni, well done.
I like how you are looking back at areas for improvement, even though you’ve had a very successful season. Personally last season I started keeping records in an excel spreadsheet and it really makes things a lot easier to analyse for the future.
I’ve quoted the above point you make about foreign runners because although you did not enjoy any success on this front, a sample of nine runners is really too small to draw any solid conclusions from. Off the top of my head Sole Power was unlucky for you in the Abbaye while Noble Mission wasn’t beaten by much in Germany. A couple of breaks her and there and you’d probably have done alright with these bets. Could be worth keeping a record of horses you would normally back abroad next year if you choose to confine your betting to Britain?
One man’s ‘hard luck story’ is another man’s gain.
Much appreciated THM thanks. You are right of course that it was just a small sample and with a bit more luck I could have had a couple of winners. I do think it is a bit different in France though where it seems there are so many big races when luck in running plays a big part. Saying that though it was only really Sole Power who was unlucky. I suppose the honest answer is that I don’t know the French form anywhere near as well as the English.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So having posted that I am not betting abroad any more I am having a bet abroad tonight.
I’m still convinced that Ectot’s race was a decent one and
Adelaide
was a touch unlucky that day. These Aussie horses aren’t a patch on ours so I expect him to win as long as the great Ryan Moore can get him a decent early position from a wide draw. I was expecting to see him about 5-2 so 11-2 was a nice surprise and so I’ll back him each way.
£75ew Adelaide 11-2 – Cox Plate
£4,884.37"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Wow! That was amazing. How on earth could he have won that race? He must have been 10 lengths better than the rest of that field. What a performance and a brave ride from the great RM! I bet Aiden is wishing he had let Adelaide run in the Arc now. Of course this makes me more convinced than ever that something went wrong with Ectot on Arc day.
So we are just under the 5k mark so will try and jump over it with what I hope will be an easy short priced winner today. I expected
Portamento
to be odd on as he loves soft ground and has easily the best form. The fact he is odds against persuades me to have a bet.
I am hoping Godolphin have a good ten minutes as I fancy
Sky Hunter
in the race after at Newbury.
£200 win Portamento 6-4 – 2.10 Doncaster
£50 win Sky Hunter 3-1 – 2.20 Newbury"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Terrific win by Adelaide there. As I said at the time, I felt he might just have caught Ectot last time if committed earlier but I think the French horse’s turn of foot perhaps caught Ryan Moore by surprise as he surged past him.
In light of this performance it is worth going back to Royal Ascot and remembering the way Eagle Top quickened past Adelaide like a rat going up a drain pipe.
Back to today and Portamento is actually my lay of the day at as low as 5/4.
In some ways he seems the obvious pick but I like to take these Godolphin two year olds on where feasible.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wow! That was amazing. How on earth could he have won that race? He must have been 10 lengths better than the rest of that field. What a performance and a brave ride from the great RM! I bet Aiden is wishing he had let Adelaide run in the Arc now. Of course this makes me more convinced than ever that something went wrong with Ectot on Arc day.
So we are just under the 5k mark so will try and jump over it with what I hope will be an easy short priced winner today. I expected
Portamento
to be odd on as he loves soft ground and has easily the best form. The fact he is odds against persuades me to have a bet.
I am hoping Godolphin have a good ten minutes as I fancy
Sky Hunter
in the race after at Newbury.
£200 win Portamento 6-4 – 2.10 Doncaster
£50 win Sky Hunter 3-1 – 2.20 NewburyWell Sky Hunter hosed up Joni. You have to laugh at that old cuddy Red Galileo being backed again today. He needs a hat with Kiss Me Quick written on it and retired to Blackpool to spend his days licking ice creams.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wow! That was amazing. How on earth could he have won that race? He must have been 10 lengths better than the rest of that field. What a performance and a brave ride from the great RM! I bet Aiden is wishing he had let Adelaide run in the Arc now. Of course this makes me more convinced than ever that something went wrong with Ectot on Arc day.
So we are just under the 5k mark so will try and jump over it with what I hope will be an easy short priced winner today. I expected
Portamento
to be odd on as he loves soft ground and has easily the best form. The fact he is odds against persuades me to have a bet.
I am hoping Godolphin have a good ten minutes as I fancy
Sky Hunter
in the race after at Newbury.
£200 win Portamento 6-4 – 2.10 Doncaster
£50 win Sky Hunter 3-1 – 2.20 Newbury (7-2 BOG)
Thanks Stevie and well done on the lay of the day! I just watched the race and actually thought that Portamento was a tad unfortunate in that he raced alone and up front for most of the race and would have been a gutsy and deserving winner. But you were right to spot the potential for an upset and I expected him to win it easily.
A small profit of £25 on the afternoon so edging closer to the magic 5k mark but off on hols tomorrow so not sure there’ll be any more. Will try and keep an eye on it and post if I can.
£4,909.37
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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