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If he runs I givr Magnanimity a big squeak in this. Ground and trip should suit – his jumping is clearly the achilles heel but well worth an ew point at 20-1.
I expect much more from him this season than he delivered. I fancied him as an ew squeak in The Gold Cup before his last two races. Somethings wrong, that’s not the same horse he was last year
Mrs CS who is usually quite shrewd had £25 EW AP @ 100/1 for The Gold Cup before The Lexus, there was a free £50 bet (new a/c) involved in the offer (Hills) so she hasn’t really lost anything
Looks as though charingworth goes for the byrne which is what i hoped.
For me Hold on Julio is vulnerable. He showed excellent pace from the ultra inconsistent quilihmar who was floundering and exposed from the front. I would have expected a little more from him against neptunes collonge though. 2 stone received and he only widened that gap by 2 lengths after the last. the tiring frontrunner made it look more impressive.
I’ll be taking him on up 15 pounds against a better field.
His jumping is risky he clouts some fences and that combined with the fact he has not been tried in races with more than 10 runners must pose huge risks.
It was a little bit disconcerting watching attheraces this afternoon. In the studio, Sean Boyce’s guest, can’t remember his name, was chatting about being at a Chelt preview night with Alan King on the panel.
He said that King was fairly bullish about all his horse….with the exception of Hold On Julio !!!!. Apparently he thought his price did not reflect his chance, and he hadn’t got the horse back to the same form as he was at the time of his last win. Apparently he has had some problems with his training.
If that is the case, I’ve not heard a dicky bird about it. He has the additional weight on his shoulders of my meagre wager, which I don’t think will bother him, or the bookies for that matter.
Anyone heard anything, has this guy made this sound more serious than King intended?
I would have thought that King would have pulled him out of the race if he thought he wasn’t completely fit for it.
It’s not really what you want to hear the day before the bloody festival
Like Baile Anrai interesting tosee where he ends up next week.
I was at Ian’s on Saturday and their only concern is that in this race they will go very quick and they’re worried that this might put pressure on his jumping.
Having said that, I’ve backed him for the race as it looks a v weak renewal. 9 of the 19 have the dreaded Timeform ‘x’ indicating a poor jumper. Add to that the number of front/prominent runners and it could be an eventful race to say the least.
Quantitativeeasing holds an obvious chance but his price reflects that.
It was a little bit disconcerting watching attheraces this afternoon. In the studio, Sean Boyce’s guest, can’t remember his name, was chatting about being at a Chelt preview night with Alan King on the panel.
He said that King was fairly bullish about all his horse….with the exception of Hold On Julio !!!!. Apparently he thought his price did not reflect his chance, and he hadn’t got the horse back to the same form as he was at the time of his last win. Apparently he has had some problems with his training.
If that is the case, I’ve not heard a dicky bird about it. He has the additional weight on his shoulders of my meagre wager, which I don’t think will bother him, or the bookies for that matter.
Anyone heard anything, has this guy made this sound more serious than King intended?
I would have thought that King would have pulled him out of the race if he thought he wasn’t completely fit for it.
It’s not really what you want to hear the day before the bloody festival
Hold On Julio definitely has scope for more improvement Big G. But since Sandown he’s been Ante-Post fav for two big Saturday handicaps and not turned up. Don’t know what the problem is/was but did hear there was one. May well need the race and this might be being used as a Grand National prep / see if his jumping is up to it. Market support or lack of it could be significant.
Usually it pays to side with those at the bottom of the weights here. But strangely, those with potential to improve are mostly towards the top of the handicap this time around.
I’ve backed Quantitativeeasing already @ 8/1. Top weight, but needed all the 2m5f to get up last time (Cheltenham). May well be much better at this trip.
Zarrafakt impressed last time at Wincanton back in Jan. Been laid out for this, best fresh. Tends to jump better fresh too. Hopefuly it’ll be soft enough for him. Goes well on good-soft, question mark good. Emma’s small stable has a good record at the Festival.
Pentiffic fell at the last when still leading last time. This a third race in quick succession would be a big negative. However, if anyone can keep them going, Venittia can.
Noland, need to forgive his latest run, but even on penultimate start isn’t out of this. Thrown in on best form. Fact he’s almost 33/1 despite Walsh riding, isn’t a good sign. So just a saver.
Runshan. Out of the handicap, but better than ever at the age of 11/12. Front runner who usually jumps well and a fighter. Not saying he’ll win, or that he has a good chance of winning. In my opinion just 2% (50/1). But that makes him a must bet at 229/1.
My 100% book:
Quantitativeeasing 11/2
, Hold On Julio 8/1, The Package 8/1,
Zarrafakt 12/1
, Our Mick 12/1, Magnanimity 13/1, Tullamore Dew 15/1, Fruity O’Rooney 18/1,
Pentiffic 18/1
, Baile Anrai 20/1, Noland 22/1, Mossley 33/1, Alfie Sherrin 40/1,
Runshan 50/1
, Riguez Dancer 50/1, Bottman 66/1, Billie Magern 80/1, Mount Oscar 100/1, Mon Mome 200/1
Value Is EverythingA few thoughts from looking through this race…
I was tempted by
Hold On Julio
at first, but as Gingertipster says, he has been scratched from several big handicaps recently. If he wins, he’ll be something special. That interrupted prep worries me.
The Package
was the next to catch my eye. I backed him the year he got chinned in this race, but in hindsight it was not the greatest renewal. Chief Dan George, the poor-jumping Ogee and Offshore Account were in the frame. Apart from Ogee (who cost himself), none of those were particularly well-treated. Should be there or thereabouts even so.
Mossley
is a poor jumper but Yogi Breisner has been working with him. Pre-season, you would imagine that Nicky Henderson planned to do his utmost to keep Bobs Worth and Mossley apart. You wouldn’t want to waste a possible Cheltenham winner by running them both in the RSA. Mossley likes quick ground so I am not dispirited by his poor runs on softer surfaces. The handicapper could have been a little kinder on chasing evidence, though.
Alfie Sherrin
also caught my eye. Quantitativeeasing being ‘chosen’ by McCoy could mislead a few people, as there is no chance McCoy could do the minimum weight on this one! Alfie Sherrin needs good ground and yet ran a stormer on heavy ground at Haydock recently. He is coming back to form. As an expensive JP McManus purchase, on bottom-weight in a big handicap, I fancy a speculative interest. He is very well-in compared to his hurdle form nowadays. Nice price too.
ALFIE SHERRIN
for me.
I NEED to get The Package in here to kick my week off! Anyone else needing a start here?
I NEED to get The Package in here to kick my week off! Anyone else needing a start here?
SS has kicked off loads of bets for me
The Package or Zarrafakt would be nice here.
Pricewise has been tipped off about that. There no way in hell you can pick that on form.
Still can’t get my foot in the door
Luckily had The Package e/w in one or two, but not as happy as I could be after the first three. If the Fly gets turned over I may as well just give up now!Bit suspicious that, been a no hoped all season, could’ve got 25/1 last night. Fruity O’Rooney ran a terrific race in 2nd, The Package ran well considering his long layoff. Don’t back top weight in this!
Nothing suspicious about that, Rich. 25/1 last night was very juicy indeed.
He needs good ground so badly – and yet ran brilliantly to be fifth on heavy ground in a hurdle race at Haydock on his last start.
What a ride by Richie McLernon as well. Alfie Sherrin belted a few fences on the way round, but he gave the horse plenty of time to get his confidence back – plenty of strength up the hill too.
The Pricewise pin hits the mark again – a very ordinary handicap with few obvious improvers and similar to five furlong handicaps just a case of who turned up best on the day. Hold On Julio jumped better but beaten more than a mile out so surely not right. The first of the King handicappers bites the dust. Not sure what Venetia Williams can see in Mr Dunne – difficult to get so many mistakes out of basically a good jumper.
Pricewise has been tipped off about that. There no way in hell you can pick that on form.
The one thing you can be sure of every year at Cheltenham is that Jonjo and J-P will have plotted one up for one of the handicaps. I picked Alfie Sherrin out last night as a possible plot but having watched the replays of his last few runs couldn’t have had him at any price. I actually thought that the Pertemps final was the race they would have run him in rather than this if it was a plot but it was clearly a great double-bluff on their part.
Credit where credit is due – nobody does it better than Jonjo.
Luckily had The Package e/w in one or two, but not as happy as I could be after the first three. If the Fly gets turned over I may as well just give up now!
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