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I have decided to back Ptit Zig at 20/1 for The King George. He is in to a best price of 7/4 for Saturday and if the Mullins horses don’t go he’ll be shorter still.
The thinking is that he could lose on Saturday, yet still be a contender come the end of the year over the 3 mile trip if it turns out he needs a bit further. He was in the RSA as well, so stamina may not be an issue. If Ptit Zig wins on Saturday he should go off favourite for the JLT in my opinion. Should he win that race as well, coupled to Paul Nicholls’ earlier statement that we might see the horse in a King George sooner, rather than later, then his odds will surely collapse.
This could all end horribly, starting on Saturday, but if he wins that one, it’ll pay for the other two legs. Silviniaco Conti could be going for the hat-trick come Boxing Day, but he’ll be a year older and have another Gold Cup run in his legs by then. Unless he’s another Dessie or Kauto, time could catch up with him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A bold King George call, Steve, and I wish you luck. But I think that race takes an awful lot of stamina these days. Folks get deceived by the track, and jocks do too – that and adrenaline, and the pace tends to burn out all but the stoutest of stayers.
Ptit Zig could face Champagne Fever on Saturday but Willie Mullins won’t make his mind up about him or Ballycasey until later in the week.
Early betting on Betfair has Balder Success in at 9/4 favourite with Ptit Zig at 11/4 next best. Ma Filleule is 4/1 with Champagne Fever 9/2 and Ballycasey 13/2. Rajdhani Express at 10/1 and Theatre Guide at 20/1 make up the entries.
I find it strange that Mullins has entered Champagne Fever this weekend, both at Ascot and Gowran. Both Mullins and Ruby Walsh have stated they think he might be better fresh so a run with three weeks to the Festival would seem a bit of a contradiction.
I’m not expecting him to run, if nothing else Ptit Zig will scare him off
Ballycasey is the Mullins runner, I had expected him to go to Gowran, but maybe Champagne Fever will go there now.
Over trips of around 2m 4f to 2m 6f, Ballycasey is five from six, the defeat coming when falling in the Powers Gold Cup, travelling well at the time.
I’d take Ballycasey to beat Balder Succes over this trip any day of the week and at 6/1 with BF Sportsbook he looks well overpriced. His run at Christmas was desperate but he wasn’t the only Mullins horse to under-perform and back at his sort of trip he’s a must bet imo.
Ptit Zig is the unknown but I’ll take you on David
A bold King George call, Steve, and I wish you luck. But I think that race takes an awful lot of stamina these days. Folks get deceived by the track, and jocks do too – that and adrenaline, and the pace tends to burn out all but the stoutest of stayers.
There are question marks Joe but my thinking is that the Dynaste’s and Al Ferof’s have had enough goes at it, along with Cue Card, and that it’s time for fresh blood in the mix. Coneygree will be another potential newcomer but we’ll see where he goes and how he gets on next month.
Paul Nicholls knows what it takes to win the race and for him to nominate Ptit Zig as a candidate is interesting.
Champagne Fever is out of Saturday’s Ascot Chase, yet Ptit Zig is surprisingly 9/4 in a couple of places after being best priced 7/4 last night. There has been money for Ballycasey into 5/1 from 9/1, seemingly for no other reason than him now being the sole Mullins contender. Perhaps punters think Willie believes he’s the better candidate, while Champagne Fever may head to Gowran instead.
I’m tempted to go in again on Ptit Zig at 9/4, he’s only 3 lbs lower rated than top rank Balder Succes and I’m expecting further improvement.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There has been money for Ballycasey into 5/1 from 9/1, seemingly for no other reason than him now being the sole Mullins contender.
He has been cut because he’s running. If punters thought he was an intended runner during the week there’s no way he’d have been 9/1.
There has been money for Ballycasey into 5/1 from 9/1, seemingly for no other reason than him now being the sole Mullins contender.
He has been cut because he’s running. If punters thought he was an intended runner during the week there’s no way he’d have been 9/1.
I always thought Champagne Fever was the more unlikely absentee and, for me, Ballycasey is skinny enough at 5/1. He’s got a bit of a hit and miss profile and I believe his form with Carlingford Lough and Don Cossack probably flatter him, as both of those horses are rated much more highly now, than they were when they met Ballycasey.
I have heard Balder Succes’ last win described as "Brilliant" but he won a three runner race where his main rival ran a shocker, way behind the lowest rated of the three runners when getting six pounds. I thought he opened as a dodgy looking favourite for the race.
Ma Filleule has disappointed somewhat this season and is on something of a comeback mission here. Beaten out of sight by Rod To Riches when well fancied and then she was third in a four runner affair when Holywell unseated and Medermit was second ro Sam Winner. The only positive to come out of the race was Sam Winner’s third in the Lexus. I’ll oppose her as I always felt she may just be overrated.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gilgamboa very disappointing today at Navan, looked below par and perhaps a sign of how hard a race he had against Un De Sceaux three weeks ago. He might be as well given a little break and being aimed at the Powers Gold Cup now because it’s hard to fancy him for the JLT on the back of that.
Real Steel was also in the race and was beaten by the second last. It’s hard to know what sort of form he was in at Leopardstown but on today’s running Vautour hadn’t a lot to do to beat him, impressive though he was.
Gilgamboa has been described as "the most schooled novice in Ireland". To me, that’s a negative and suggests that he needed some remedial work to be up to standard.
Maybe all the extra yards covered are taking their toll.
I’d already said I didn’t think much of Real Steel and felt Vautour hadn’t beaten much last time.
I am disappointed Ptit Zig didn’t get a chance to enhance his place in the betting for this race yesterday but I feel he’s a much better bet at 9/2 than Vautour at half those odds.
9/4 after what Vautour has achieved over fences is an accident waiting to happen for Willie Mullins Lemmings.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d already said I didn’t think much of Real Steel and felt Vautour hadn’t beaten much last time.
I am disappointed Ptit Zig didn’t get a chance to enhance his place in the betting for this race yesterday but I feel he’s a much better bet at 9/2 than Vautour at half those odds.
9/4 after what Vautour has achieved over fences is an accident waiting to happen for Willie Mullins Lemmings.
3/1 vs 4/1 at best odds David if we exclude Betway who are notorious. I’d prefer Vautour at those odds of the two, however as I’ve already said it’s the Apache who I’m most involved with (only Vautour bet is a double with UDS 27/1).
I’d already said I didn’t think much of Real Steel and felt Vautour hadn’t beaten much last time.
I am disappointed Ptit Zig didn’t get a chance to enhance his place in the betting for this race yesterday but I feel he’s a much better bet at 9/2 than Vautour at half those odds.
9/4 after what Vautour has achieved over fences is an accident waiting to happen for Willie Mullins Lemmings.
3/1 vs 4/1 at best odds David if we exclude Betway who are notorious. I’d prefer Vautour at those odds of the two, however as I’ve already said it’s the Apache who I’m most involved with (only Vautour bet is a double with UDS 27/1).
I always quote worst to best prices to show the difference of opinion across the boards Tommy. I know it get’s on Ginger’s nerves as well, but that’s the way I examine the full spectrum of opinion regarding any two horses.
Of course that doesn’t mean anyone is going to take the shortest price but for me it highlights who is sticking their neck out and who is drawing it right in.
The overall point I am trying to make is how anyone can consider Vautour a 9/4 shot based on three chases where he went off 2/11, 1/4 and 1/5, managing to lose one of them on the way.
Backers will be buying into the fact that he won the Supreme Novices last year and hoping that he doesn’t repeat whatever ailed him when he finished a long way back when beaten by Clarcam.
There were a lot of promising Irish Novices a few weeks ago but some of them have disappointed of late and it’s enough for me to consider little value in Vautour at his odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t argue with any of that David. Look a right good bunch of novice chasers this season and hopefully there’ll be a good few who go on to bigger things next season. The novice hurdle division looks weak by comparison.
Beware backing Gitane Du Berlais. Her win yesterday in France saw her cut to as low as 5/1 for this race but Willie Mullins said after the race that she Isn’t going to Cheltenham
This seems to be taking a long time to filter through to bookies, because she is still quoted for the race right across the board.
This gives me a non-runner in the RSA for the vs Pricewise competition and it’s of little comfort that my thinking that she wouldn’t take on UDS or Vautour was proved correct
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There doesn’t seem to have been much enthusiasm about this race and it’s hard to figure why with Vautour coming here after a scintillating Supreme Novices win to take on Ptit Zig and Apache Stronghold, both held in high regard, with Valseur Lido looking to reverse form with the latter horse and TAPK’s long range prospect Irish Saint also in attendance.
If the betting means anything Vautour will win this. There has been heavy support for him and he’s about 6/4 now. In contrast, Ptit Zig is on the drift out to 11/2, which appears like an each-way bet to nothing for me, with a fall looking the only way he won’t place to my eyes.
I would probably have preferred softer ground for Apache Stronghold, who is tightly matched with Valseur Lido and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if form were reversed this time.
I’m having doubts about Irish Saint, he was beaten at odds on behind stable mate Vibrato Valtat, who was a shade disappointing in The Arkle and his beating of Thomas Crapper looks a better run, with that horse having run respectably this week. Irish Saint’s last win was hard to get enthused about, with main rival Melodic Rendezvous putting in an absolute howler at one fence, ending his chance. My feeling is The Saint would have held him anyway but this is much tougher today.
Vautour’s team have all said they expect him to win but I just can’t have him at these odds in his biggest test by far over fences.
Ptit Zig’s odds look worryingly generous. He is held in high regard and trainer Paul Nicholls has been talking King George sooner, rather than later, with him and has said he is looking forward to the horse tackling older opponents next season. I’m on him at 10/1 but if I wasn’t I would be having a dabble at the 11/2 this morning.
Good luck and let’s hope a star emerges in some form or other.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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