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JLT Novice Chase

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Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 75 total)
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  • #500067
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    6s now Ptit Zig, who really impressed today and looks rock solid EW. But I think I’ll wait, as he won’t be much shorter if Vautour turns up.

    PZ looks a very good prospect. I was never really a fan before today, but he travelled, jumped and quickened really well.

    #500078
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    The JLT had seemed a penalty kick for Vautour (presuming UDS goes for the Arkle) but that was seriously impressive today; quickening up the hill in softer ground than he’ll meet in March.
    Obviously have to give Vautour another chance, but he has something to prove now

    #500085
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    The winner of the race following The Dipper, run over the same distance, was won by Splash Of Ginge, who was cut right in from 33/1 to a best price 16/1, and as low as 12/1 in places, for the JLT.

    To put his performance in comparison to that of Ptit Zig earlier it should be noted that the winner of the earlier race carried 12lbs more than Splash Of Ginge and clocked a time 4.7 seconds faster.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #500095
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    The winner of the race following The Dipper, run over the same distance, was won by Splash Of Ginge, who was cut right in from 33/1 to a best price 16/1, and as low as 12/1 in places, for the JLT.

    To put his performance in comparison to that of Ptit Zig earlier it should be noted that the winner of the earlier race carried 12lbs more than Splash Of Ginge and clocked a time 4.7 seconds faster.

    Simon Rowlands (Prufroc on TRF), interpreted that as being 19lbs superior.

    #500096
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    Is the ‘jump to first unread post’ function not working for anyone else? :? Not working for this whole section.

    #500540
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    5/1 was my idea of the price on Ptit Zig, who Nicholls suggested could show up in a King George sooner, rather than later.

    I notice that a couple of firms have introduced Ptit Zig into this year’s King George betting at 20/1.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #501321
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    The winner of the race following The Dipper, run over the same distance, was won by Splash Of Ginge, who was cut right in from 33/1 to a best price 16/1, and as low as 12/1 in places, for the JLT.

    To put his performance in comparison to that of Ptit Zig earlier it should be noted that the winner of the earlier race carried 12lbs more than Splash Of Ginge and clocked a time 4.7 seconds faster.

    Simon Rowlands (Prufroc on TRF), interpreted that as being 19lbs superior.

    That is a lot more than the official ratings have between the two horses Joe.

    Ptit Zig is on 159 and Splash Of Ginge is rated 153.

    Ptit Zig has been nibbled at steadily since his last win and only one firm go 9/2 now, with him being 4/1 elsewhere.

    Vautour may run in the Irish Arkle next and it will be interesting to see if he can get back on track if turning up there. My thinking is that the Nicholls horse has a realistic chance of beating a peak form Vautour and if the Mullins horse should fail again "Ziggy" will be a warm order for the JLT.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #501654
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    Well Vautour is out on Sunday but we won’t learn much about him in a three runner race where he is 1/6 favourite.

    A very poor turnout for a race worth 24,000 Euros to the winner and one of the two opponents is a no-hoper 33/1 shot who surely needs both of the others to fall.

    No doubt a win for Vautour will see him go 3/1 fav or so, as he confirms there are still four legs underneath him.

    Let’s all hope that Haydock goes ahead, so we can get on a tasty double The New One and Vautour at 1/6 each, those bookies are quaking as we speak :roll:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #502022
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    As predicted Vautour is cut in to a general 3/1 and as short as 5/2 in a place for winning a virtual walkover.

    Utterly ridiculous and he’s a silly price at 5/2 in my opinion.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #502053
    Avatar photoShack1
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    As predicted Vautour is cut in to a general 3/1 and as short as 5/2 in a place for winning a virtual walkover.

    Utterly ridiculous and he’s a silly price at 5/2 in my opinion.

    His performance was a mark of 150+ in dispatching Real Steal with contempt. As pointed out on ATR this was on a par with Sir Des Champs. 3/1 will look a gift after the race, the same as his supreme odds did :wink:

    #502082
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    As predicted Vautour is cut in to a general 3/1 and as short as 5/2 in a place for winning a virtual walkover.

    Utterly ridiculous and he’s a silly price at 5/2 in my opinion.

    His performance was a mark of 150+ in dispatching Real Steal with contempt. As pointed out on ATR this was on a par with Sir Des Champs. 3/1 will look a gift after the race, the same as his supreme odds did :wink:

    Ptit Zig is rated 159, looks a good jumper and the trainer has said he’ll be in better form still come Cheltenham. Real Steal is a 140 rated chaser and that is a different level altogether. A poor effort from Vautour last time also adds a question mark regarding value in the prices.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #502179
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    I think Real Steel is possibly under-rated; he was a good third in the Drinmore despite giving a away vast amounts of ground jumping left. So Vautour’s performance was satisfactory, tho his jumping not as fluent as on his debut. Ptit Zig was very impressive last time, so this could be a fascinating contest

    #503583
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    It was too early to say what would have happened but Gitane Du Berlais had Champagne West at it before that one departed and she ran out a good winner from Irish Saint. I doubt she’s in the top five novices in Mullins’ stable, never mind the rest of Ireland.

    As a bunch the Irish novice chasers look very strong and I’d wager Apache Stronghold or Vautour would have beat today’s Scilly Isles field with contempt. Looking back through Ptit Zig’s form, he was found wanting at the top level over hurdles, and his defeat of Champagne West, who he took a while to master, does not look as good in light of today’s race.

    I’m happy to take Vautour and Apache Stronghold, who is still a very big price at 16/1, against the field.

    #503605
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    I was much taken by GDB today. Lovely lengthy mare with a good stride, whose knee action was not as pronounced as Irish Saint’s, so there’d be hope that better ground won’t inconvenience her.

    I cannot recall seeing a novice jump the first two in the back straight at Sandown with such elan, and, if anything, she’s a bit too bold. It would be a shame if that proved her undoing. If she’s only 5th in the Mullins pecking order, Tommy, God help the English novices.

    #503608
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    It was too early to say what would have happened but Gitane Du Berlais had Champagne West at it before that one departed and she ran out a good winner from Irish Saint. I doubt she’s in the top five novices in Mullins’ stable, never mind the rest of Ireland.

    As a bunch the Irish novice chasers look very strong and I’d wager Apache Stronghold or Vautour would have beat today’s Scilly Isles field with contempt. Looking back through Ptit Zig’s form, he was found wanting at the top level over hurdles, and his defeat of Champagne West, who he took a while to master, does not look as good in light of today’s race.

    I’m happy to take Vautour and Apache Stronghold, who is still a very big price at 16/1, against the field.

    Unlike Vautour last time, Champagne West was actually in a competitive race today. We learned nothing about Vautour last time out and it can be dangerous assuming anything from races won by 1/5 shots.

    A bit hard on Ptit Zig there, as I don’t think there is much wrong with being 6th in a Champion Hurdle before embarking on a Chasing career. Not many really top hurdlers need or get sent chasing when they are that good over the smaller obstacles.

    It would have been a bonus had Champagne West won today to enhance Ptit Zig’s form, but given that he was an 11/4 shot for today’s race last night, it was not as if he was a hot pot that ran a shocker and devalued the form.

    Dipper fourth Ned Stark was beaten 27 lengths by Ptit Zig, getting 3 lbs and he won a grade 2 today, turning over the favourite, with the pair well clear. Paul Nicholls said after the Dipper that he can get Ptit Zig into better shape for Cheltenham than he had him for that day.

    Vautour could be the business but he’s not cast iron yet and he had an off day already. Apache Stronghold has enough to prove for me and he seems a few lbs short of the required level in my eyes.

    I didn’t actually see Champagne West’s race today but spoke to a guy who did and he wasn’t sure how it would have panned out had he stayed on his feet, opining that the ultimate winner was travelling really well.

    As I said, it was not as if Champagne West was considered a good thing today and it seems harsh to crib Ptit Zig, who is busy putting on a shed load of improvement for Cheltenham :lol:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #503613
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    Good point about Ned Stark David, put in a good performance today.

    Unlike Vautour last time, Champagne West was actually in a competitive race today. We learned nothing about Vautour last time out and it can be dangerous assuming anything from races won by 1/5 shots.

    In defense of Vautour, it’s hardly Vautour’s fault he was 1/5 last time, and in Real Steel he faced a decent if limited opponent. Real Steel might well have been favourite to beat Gitane Du Berlais if they had met before today, and is probably as good as most of today’s field.

    A bit hard on Ptit Zig there, as I don’t think there is much wrong with being 6th in a Champion Hurdle before embarking on a Chasing career. Not many really top hurdlers need or get sent chasing when they are that good over the smaller obstacles.

    Ptit Zig was sixth in a Champion Hurdle but for me he was a rung below the top hurdlers, and was beaten any time he took on the big guns. I’m not convinced last year’s Champion Hurdle was as good as I thought at the time. He jumps fences well but until he has faced a top level chaser we won’t know if he has made the jump from high class hurdler to top class chaser. Vautour proved himself a top class hurdler, as a novice at any rate, and while he has looked novicey at times he seems to have transferred that ability to fences.

    It would have been a bonus had Champagne West won today to enhance Ptit Zig’s form, but given that he was an 11/4 shot for today’s race last night, it was not as if he was a hot pot that ran a shocker and devalued the form.

    Quite right, it was too early to say what would have happened had he stood up, but even if he had won I doubt it would have been by far. He was being niggled before he departed but in truth he was never jumping that well today.

    Vautour could be the business but he’s not cast iron yet and he had an off day already. Apache Stronghold has enough to prove for me and he seems a few lbs short of the required level in my eyes.

    Agree on Vautour, out of the Mullins big guns (Vautour, Annie Power and Faugheen) he looks the most vulnerable, but I’d be loathe to take him on given his performance at last year’s Festival and how easily he put Clarcam and Real Steel to bed at different stages this season.

    I think the Apache Stronghold / Don Poli form is as good as I’ve seen this season (the Un De Sceaux demolition aside of course), there was a bunch of potentially top novices in behind them and they were left a long way behind. Apache takes on Valseur Lido again next weekend and I’m hoping he won’t be beaten as far as he was in the Drinmore and give him every chance of reversing that form. For me he’s the major value in the race at 16/1.

    My initial post was not intended to be an all out attack on Ptit Zig, rather that I feel the Irish novices look very strong. Gitane Du Berlais reinforced that opinion today and I’d be against Ptit Zig at the 7/2-4/1 mark.

    #503615
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    I was much taken by GDB today. Lovely lengthy mare with a good stride, whose knee action was not as pronounced as Irish Saint’s, so there’d be hope that better ground won’t inconvenience her.

    I cannot recall seeing a novice jump the first two in the back straight at Sandown with such elan, and, if anything, she’s a bit too bold. It would be a shame if that proved her undoing. If she’s only 5th in the Mullins pecking order, Tommy, God help the English novices.

    It was a joy to watch her today. I thought she was doing too much in front and would surely pay for it late on but she stayed on well in the finish. Will Daryl Jacob keep the ride even if Ruby Walsh is available? If Vautour and Valseur Lido run in the JLT that will leave Don Poli in the RSA and Ruby with no ride, so it could be they go for the longer race. I’d imagine the Mullins novices are rated in the following order:

    1 – Un De Sceaux
    2 – Vautour
    3 – Don Poli
    3 – Valseur Lido
    5 – Vroum Vroum Mag
    5 – Gitane Du Berlais

    But I’d rate them:

    1 – Un De Sceaux
    2 – Don Poli
    3 – Vautour
    4 – Valsuer Lido
    5 – Vroum Vroum Mag
    5 – Gitane Du Berlais

    I love Don Poli, but I’m a sucker for that type of horse. He finds loads for pressure and you never know where the bottom of him is. He showed a lot of class last time out. Cooper never looked too worried when Apache Stronghold ranged alongside and I don’t think it was a case of him simply outstaying the Meade horse. The staying chaser division looks ripe for this year’s novices to make a mark next season and the Don is at the forefront of my thoughts for next year’s Gold Cup already.

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