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Glad the Tories are going to bring themselves down , they have previous for doing this and more than a few backbenchers will be happy to keep there seat and spend 4 years in the shadows …..nothing the Daily Mail can do about that
I’m a great believer that governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them.
There was nothing remarkable about Tony Blair in 1997 – he just seemed safe, sensible, a lot less left wing than Michael Foot and more intelligent and less triumphalist than Neil Kinnock.
It was John Major’s economic woes that did for him.
The Pandemic won’t beat Johnson, and the Ukraine War has boosted him, but the cost of living crisis is his mortal enemy, even more than his obvious lack of integrity.
The centre right media will attack Starmer, but they’ve got less ammunition than they had against Jeremy Corbyn and remember, despite an all-out centre right media assault on him in 2016, Corbyn denied Theresa May a majority.
Starmer is a more moderate man up against a lower integrity PM – he can at the very least secure a Hung Parliament.
It’s going to get very messy, though, the economy has two years to recover, the Daily Mail and The Sun will go into overdrive and there will be Budget bribes to voters.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Starmer cannot make any political capital out of the economy.
The inflationary crisis (which is only going to get worse) is a direct result of lockdown. Something Starmer did not oppose – in fact he called for it to be more severe and longer.
Johnson has been incredibly fortunate to be up against an opposition that is so inept.
I don’t think Starmer can make any political capital out of it directly, but then I’m not sure Blair made much out of Major’s woes directly either.
Blair simply made sure he was squeaky clean, he also purged his Party of Militants and presented an electable alternative.
I’d say Starmer is in the process of doing the same – bye bye to the Corbyns, the Corbynistas, the Rebecca Long-Baileys etc, “soft left” Angela Rayner, who at least has the street nous to be becoming less left wing almost by the day, is the only remaining sop to the Corbyn years.
I still think Starmer is Labour’s best Leader since Blair, certainly the most electable, or least unelectable!
He’s boring, holier than thou, patronising and condescending, but then so was Blair.
Starmer has lacked cut through with the public, he has no edge to him, and that’s why I don’t see him winning a majority.
But I’m struggling to see how the Tories can win another majority under Johnson and the question for me is: who will the Lib Dems side with this time if they hold the balance of power?
The SNP could find themselves in a very strong position too.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Starmer has lacked cut through with the public, he has no edge to him, and that’s why I don’t see him winning a majority.”
He has next to no chance of winning a majority. Although that is true for anyone who leads Labour now. Losing the Scottish seats has made it close to impossible.
If the Scottish and Northern Irish seats are excluded, it leaves about 580 seats in the Commons.
At least a bare minimum 200 of those can be considered fairly safe Conservative seats. I realise the Conservatives were reduced to something like 165 seats in the Blair years – but I think we can assume that is a low point they will not reach again.
If you take off 200 from the 580 seats in England and Wales, Labour need to win something like 330 out of 380 seats to get a working majority. It does not leave much margin for error. Throw in the handful of safe Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru and Caroline Lucas’s fiefdom in Brighton and it is more like 330 from 370 seats.
The loss of the 35 to 40 Scottish seats is really hurting Labour. It is difficult to see the party ever gaining a majority without them.
I completely agree with that analysis.
Even a truly outstanding Labour leader would struggle to form a working majority in the 21st century political landscape you so accurately describe.
I think it’s down to who wins most seats in a hung Parliament and tbh I can see why the Tories are still odds-on favourites to do that.
Much though I detested, loathed and despised Nick Clegg, I guess in 2010 he felt he had a moral duty to form a coalition with the Party that won most seats.
Will the SNP and the Lib Dems feel the same way about facilitating a prospective 2024-2029 Johnson-led administration?
Or will they try to broker a deal with Starmer?
I certainly think the 2024 Election will be a lot more 2010 than 1997!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"CAS the economic woes are down to the war in Ukraine not Covid , while you could argue it’s not Boris fault he’s the man at the helm , using the deportation/tagging of migrants is another example of the Tories trying to take your eyes of the real issues in the country , did you see the the latest stats regarding NHS waiting times this week , that should have top of the news , instead we waste 500k on a plane that can’t take off as the EU courts deny it …..yeah Brexit means Brexit ….keep watching guys and please don’t ask to many questions
Ian no one in there right man would do a deal with Boris , if you had him over to dinner you,d check his pockets for your silver before he leaves …
Nicholas independence talk isnt going down that well in Scotland , esp with some in her own party , she,s playing a dangerous game , pushing for it just now while there are much bigger fish to fry may back fire on her
“CAS the economic woes are down to the war in Ukraine not Covid.”
Agree the war has clearly been bad for the economy and has made the situation worse – but you cannot pretend that the lockdowns had no impact.
If you shut down large parts of the economy on and off for two years and print lots of money, it is going to cause inflation. It is basic economics.
The global economy has never really recovered from 2007/08. Then along came Covid and lockdowns to make it worse, followed by a war.
True CAS but the fuel/energy increases are the final knock out blow , in all honesty while I don’t mind the interest rate increases ( money in the bank ) I don’t see them resolving this at all , there,s loads of jobs needing filled but the people aren’t there to fill them , if you have a strong work market you should have a strong economy but I think we all know a recession is on the way , interest rates of 3 % wouldn’t surprise me and I’d worry or anyone with all there money in bricks and mortar ….I see a fall in housing prices to
I’m a fairly simplistic chap and in my book in any era where the rate of inflation becomes higher then the interest rate (ie all savings lose value in real terms and it’s best to spend what extra disposable income you have now because it’s purchasing power will only diminish) the economy is out of control.
It happened in the 1970s and it’s been the case for years now too.
It’s the antithesis of the monetarism of the 1980s and 1990s which kept interest rates higher than inflation.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"This Inflation is not down to printing money otherwise we would have had high inflation over the past 10 years as a result of the QE.
It’s largely driven by global factors and most especially fuel. Also labour shortages and like it or not, that’s partly down to brexit but also a record number exiting t( labour market during covid
Fair point Ian but with people living longer unless you want to work to the day you drop then you have to have some kind of plan , I’m simplistic to and the one thing I’d say is to many people have all there eggs in the housing market , to many people think interest rates of 1% or under are the norm , if they hit 2 to 3% then there’s going to be a big hike in repossessions as people fail to keep up payments
No chance
Mortgage eligibility has been a lot lot tighter over past 12 years and these aren’t 15% rates such as in the early 90s. Also most economists expect it the correct itself next year
There will be not even a ripple in the repossessions
Never ever bought that interest rate theory.
As if consumers look at their pensions and savings and go oh look it’s only paying 1% and inflation is 2% so I better get on Amazon!
Not a chance
And very dated theory from days when inflation was 25% and savings a lot lot less. 1 or 2% margins are irrelevant
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