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It’s been a while – system help!

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  • #15109
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4375

    Let me start with 3 selections from what I remember of a system I used some years ago.

    Golden Prospect – 3.05 Bath LOST[/color:w1vn4xzr]

    Full Victory – 4.10 Bath LOST[/color:w1vn4xzr]

    and

    Ollie Magurn – 4.20 Perth :lol: WON 14/1[/color:w1vn4xzr] :lol:

    If there is a winner here or a descent place it may grab your interest to read on.

    I am going back a long while, perhaps around 15 years or may have been longer than that, anyway, I bought some paper systems from either “Castle Systems” or from someone in Castleford, all I can remember is a vague connection with CASTLE – I only mention this just incase it helps anyone’s memory bank.

    The system worked!

    However somewhere along the way through life it was lost, so I will post here what I remember of it, which of course may be ALL of it but I am sure there is still a bit missing.

    If you know the system please help me to complete it.

    The rules as I recall: –

    Handicap races only.

    Counting down from the top weight mark off only those in the top 5 weights (this can mean many more than the top 5 on the race card because as you are aware there will be some at the same weight and so they count as one group.

    Match up from the first 5 in the betting forecast and delete those that do not match.

    I must say I am not 100% sure of 5 weights and or 5 in forecast

    This can nowadays be changed to the first five with Odds Checker

    Of those if any that remain consider only horses with a “D” in the formline, dump the rest.

    I think only horses having run within 30 days should remain as considerations.

    HERE IS THE BIG BUT

    I really am not sure of the following two filters but Maybe the top weight was rejected or any LTO winners were removed, it may have been only winners LTO IF in the top 1/2 weights.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #296684
    billion
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    Wonderful thing this GOOGLE.

    I found my system provider: –

    CASTLE SPORTING SERVICES

    As said I used them many years ago and they still have many systems for sale. I have requested they dig out the one I am interested in and hope they can find it.

    I am sure their service is as good today as it was 15/20 years ago should anyone feel inclined . . . . .

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446313
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4375

    It hardly feels like 3 years ago when I posted a plea for help but since that time there has I am sure been some new members arrive and I am sure some have left. For myself I have been absent for a while as I found the mechanics of the forum workings too slow, yes I am afraid the old saying regarding paint drying being more interesting and about sums it up.

    However

    Nathan Hughes

    has helped me tweak a few settings and there are times in the day when I can now gain access without pulling out what little hair I have left.

    If I may again refer to the paper system I purchased from "Castles" and since searched and search for and is proving harder to find than the Holy Grail.

    Should anyone know of the system perhaps you will please either post it in full here or help in the reconstruction.

    As I remember: –

    Handicaps ONLY!

    Field sizes – unknown.

    Race class – unknown.

    Rules: –

    1. Delete the top two either simply the first two or the top two weights.

    2.Count down, either from the top of the card or from the remainder following the removal of the top two, the next 5, possibly weight changes, and dismiss the remainder of the card.

    3. Cross reference the first five in the betting forecast with the remainder left from rule 1 & 2 and only consider any which match.

    4. Remove any without a "D" previous distance win.

    5. Remove any having won its latest race.

    6. Remove any not having raced with 4 weeks (28/30 days)

    These are the rules as I remember but may not be correct.

    The theory I feel is quite obvious, handicap winners are weighted to give others a chance and so by removing any having won a previous race does erase those.

    Nothing is being asked that has not been achieved before i.e. "D" winners only are to be included.

    The Top weights may find they have been slowed by the handicapper and so are not included.

    The betting forecast compiler will think it to have a good chance of winning thus included in the front five.

    The fitness is also accounted for having run within a month.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446314
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15976

    Welcome back Bill, I’ll have a new system set up to make you feel at home :D

    #446326
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 33988

    Welcome back Bill. This system is of genius similar to yourself and other than VTC midnight system is the only one on here to go 3 years and still be in the profit. :mrgreen:
    Shame that no one knows the rules……. :(

    Charles Darwin to conquer the World

    #446350
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4375

    Cheers chaps.

    At the very least you have read the plea for help and it is out there somewhere.

    How I lost it I will never know but sometimes these things get put to one side and they simply fade from ones mind, a little like shopping lists for the supermarket.

    It is a good working system and provides some nice winners not always at the short end of the market which as we know can be dominated by winners last time out.

    I have been thinking about it and am not sure if there was a minimum distance and field size requirement but hey, there may well be another old codger out there somewhere who used the same or similar rules back in the day pre millennium.

    Perhaps when the field sizes improve I will submit a few selections along with the rules and see if any memories can be jogged.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446356
    billion
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    I will try to unravel the ingredients of this system but am by no means sure the components are correct.

    I started by looking for the handicap with the largest field but did ignore the amateur races.

    Unsure of class and distance requirements these were also ignored.

    None qualified for 5.35 Lingfield (14) – 3.50 Worcester (13) – 5.10 Lingfield (12)

    Catterick 4.30 12 declared 5F Handicap Class 6

    I do believe the minimum distance required was 7F but out of interest I ran the requirements to find a possible selection.

    I marked the top 5 weighted (sometimes 6/7 if the weight is the same as the 5th).

    The top two on the race card are deleted.

    Checked the front 5 of the betting forecast against those remaining.

    The only remaining possibility being

    LORD BUFFHEAD

    .

    Lord Buffhead was not a winner LTO and had a previous "D" distance win to its name.

    The final check being time since previous race being only 17 days qualifies it as a selection.

    Early morning price 12/1 with Bet365 (BOG) 3 places paying 1/4 perhaps suggests it as an each way punt.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446393
    billion
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    Lord Buffhead being a non runner prompted me to look again through the race cards.

    Worcester 3.20 landed a 2/1 winner with Sovereign Spirit but being an amateur race took it out of the game.

    5.00 Catterick is an apprentice race with the distance is beyond 7F and the system picks

    AMIR PASHIR

    available at 4/1

    5.50 Sandown is another apprentice race over 12F and

    BREAKHEART

    shows up as a selection but only 6/4 available.

    These are shown as an exercise as to how the system can work in the hope of jogging a memory of a member to discover the complete rules.
    I have emailed Castle Sporting Systems but as yet without a reply.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446402
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4375

    Wednesday – update: –

    No money was lost about LORD BUFFHEAD being a non runner which I am not too unpleased about because the more I think about the rules of this system the more sure I am there is a minimum distance requirement and I do believe it to be 7 furlongs and therefore would have negated LORD BUFFHEAD’s race.

    For myself I prefer not to get involved with amateur and apprentice races etc. but there has to be a winner but if they are excluded within the rules I cannot be sure and leave it hanging as a personal preference.

    A quick run through the cards once I found out Lord Buffhead to be a non runner I looked for handicaps with a min. distance of 7 furlongs to test it out.

    Worcester 3.20 was in fact an amateur handicap hurdle with 16 runners and Sovereign Spirit was selected and won at 2/1 despite being after the result was known.

    AMIR PASHA was posted in plenty of time for the 1m 3f apprentice race, 2 non runners reduced the number to 6 (I did not know this at the time) and again the race would have been struck on both accounts of apprentice only and just 6 runners. Amir Pasha was picked as a Clockwise horse and made the result all the more disappointing.

    BREAKHEART was picked as the selection for the 5.50 Sandown 1m 2f apprentice race with 8 declared. Again there were 2 non runners reducing the field to 6 and so the race under normal circumstances would have been scratched. Nevertheless BREAKHEART won at 7/4 proving the system can work.

    My thoughts about this system is to find selections at a price to follow each way if you are comfortable with e/w stakes and so most betting folk would go along with 8 as a minimum number to offer 3 places but these are debatable issues as is the minimum price.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446439
    billion
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    Thursday July 25

    Having had 100 hits on this thread without any system discovery I certainly don’t think I have to have a brain like Einstein to assume it will remain as The Lost System.

    Once again the race cards are not proving to be ideally suited for this method/system, have it as you will.

    I am becoming more convinced there was a fixed minimum distance but for the life of me I cannot remember what it is. 7 Furlongs rings a bell but I may be confusing this with another idea, one mile and 12F are also distances nagging away at me and so for the time being I am sticking with 7 furlongs as my minimum.

    The largest field for today being only 11 has been scratched because it is only 6F and I am trying to miss such donkey derby’s about class 6 races if possible, although I will say again each and every race has a winner!

    I have ended my race search with Sandown 4.50 & Epsom 7.40: –

    Sandown 4.50 7 furlongs, class 5 and having 10 declared.

    An interesting point with this race being the weight of Charitable Act, number 5 on the card is the same as numbers 6 & 7 and so they are then included.

    1 & 2 automatically scratched but still leaving 5 others.
    3 is scratched having won LTO.
    4 is also scratched due to not having run for 38 days.
    5/6/7 all have "D" form but only MUFTARRES features in the front five of my betting forecast.
    Sandown 4.50

    MUFTARRES

    early BOG price is 9/2 (3 places each way)

    Epsom 7.40 7 furlongs class 4 having 10 declared but has 2 non runners and now down to 8.

    FORCEFUL APPEAL

    available 5/2 BOG

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446476
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4375

    MUFTARRES ended up in 4th position.

    It may be worth noting the winner TIGHT FIT met most of the criteria of this system: –

    Not a winner LTO, had previous winning "D" form and run its previous race within a month (28 days) and was in the front 5 of my papers forecast s.p.’s.

    However it was NOT considered because it was not in the top 5 of the weights.

    I think this shows the rules of the system are pointers towards winner finding.

    FORCEFUL APPEAL was placed 2nd at 6/4

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446516
    billion
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    Friday July 26

    With six meetings again today I am surprised to find just the one selections to qualify.

    Although time restriction do not permit checking each and every race this is the result of excluding Class 6 dross and distances under 7 furlongs.

    I have also restricted races to those with double figure entries in order to obtain 3 place pay outs.

    York 8.00

    is a Class 3 handicap over 1 mile with 10 entries.

    I like the look of the favourite EHTEDAAM but it is excluded on two counts, being top weight and winner LTO.
    Garde Cotiere is 2nd on the card and also excluded leaving the next 3 being all "D" winners and having run their previous races within a month. Jo’burg is scratched for not being in the first five of my newspaper betting forecast.

    This leaves just two: – LORD AERYN (16/1) & DUBAI HILLS (8/1) prices from the live early market will stand betting both.

    However I am still trying to remember the rules of this forgotten system and think a handicap rating may have been included but really am not sure and so on the basis of the live early market and a handicap rating

    DUBAI HILLS

    gets the nod.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446571
    billion
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    • Total Posts 4375

    Oh dear, oh dear!

    DUBAI HILLS lost

    .

    With only 15 hits on this thread today I guess everyone has got the idea even if they don’t have the finished product.

    Being away from home base I will have to keep my fingers crossed someone comes up with the rules some time in the future and leave it for the membership to work the system should they so wish.

    Good luck.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446575
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 33988

    Billion if only you had looked after the system in the first bloody place you could now be living in a dongle free castle and you my friend would be king.
    And I could of broke in and stolen the bloody thing and be sitting on a deck chair sipping colada by the pool surrounded by 100’s of hot woman……. :twisted:

    Instead you bloody lost it….. :evil:

    Charles Darwin to conquer the World

    #446576
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33988

    You want to go down the police station and see if anyone has handed it in or go to all the local schools and go through the lost property. I bet my last dollar that Mrs B threw it out with the recycle tins…….. :x

    Charles Darwin to conquer the World

    #446624
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    Castle or Caravan . . . . . . .

    The caravan wins every time Nathan, it’s a no brainer, hard up and happy so they say but who are

    they

    ? THEY are the ones sitting in a castle with all my dosh :(

    It is a funny thing though just how these things get lost, perhaps it hit a bad patch and got put to one side or maybe got deleted in error from the jolly old p.c. Who knows?

    I can clearly remember having some good winners with it and then went to use it and BOSH – GONE!

    Over the years I have put the rules about as I remember them and asked if anyone else knew of it but never had any joy of discovery.

    Whilst here I may as well put up the two which came out of the system this morning: –

    Saturday July 27

    Ascot 2.40 TARKHI 8/1 BOG (3 1/4 place)

    Lost

    York 2.20 SMARTY SOCKS 3/1 BOG (3 1/4 place)

    2nd 5/2

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #446633
    Avatar photogrotbags66
    Member
    • Total Posts 150

    Welcome back Billion, I have missed you. xxx

    I have not got the foggiest idea what Nathan is going on about but he is telling me that you should put up a reward in the Racing Post newspaper for vital information about your system.

    best wishes with it
    Samantha

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