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How is this thread, about something which doesn’t exist, still going?
Talk about tedious.
How is this thread, about something which doesn’t exist, still going?
Talk about tedious.
Isn’t it just. I think I will scream if Ginger mentions his bloody table of odds again.
I do like a challenge.
Table Of Odds And Chances
Evens=50% …. 21/20=48.8% …. 11/10=47.6% …. 6/5=45.5% ….5/4=44.4% …. 11/8=42.1% …. 6/4=40% …. 13/8=38.1% …. 7/4=36.4% …. 9/5=35.7% …. 15/8=34.8% …. 2/1=33.3% …. 85/40=32% …. 9/4=30.8% …. 5/2=28.6% …. 11/4=26.7% …. 3/1=25% …. 100/30=23.1% …. 7/2=22.2% …. 4/1=20% …. 9/2=18.2% …. 5/1=16.7% …. 11/2=15.4% …. 6/1=14.3% …. 13/2=13.3% …. 7/1=12.5% …. 15/2=11.7% …. 8/1=11.1% …. 17/2=10 5% …. 9/1=10% …. 10/1=9.1% …. 11/1=8.3% …. 12/1=7.7% …. 13/1=7.1% …. 14/1=6.7% …. 15/1=6.2% …. 16/1=5.9% …. 18/1=5.3% …. 20/1=4.8% …. 22/1=4.3% …. 25/1=3.8% …. 28/1=3.4% …. 33/1=3% …. 40/1=2.4% …. 50/1=2% …. 66/1=1.5% …. 80/1=1.2% …. 100/1=1% …. 132/1=3/4%(0.75%) …. 150/1=2/3%(0.67%) …. 200/1=1/2%(0.5%) …. 300/1=1/3%(0.33%) …. 400/1=1/4%(0.25%) …. 500/1=1/5%(0.2%) …. 800/1=1/8%(0.125%) …. 1000/1=1/10%(0.1%) …. 2000/1=1/20%(0.05%)I offer you this challenge Letsgetracing and Zoso.
Show me how (assuming level stakes), you can make a profit on your 3/1 bets without winning more than 25% of them?
Without just avoiding the question by saying there is no such thing as value in racing.
If you can, then I will admit there is no such thing as value in racing.
But if you can not then you will have to admit you are wrong and value does exist in racing.I bet you can not, or will not do this because it is impossible.
Value Is EverythingNo one has ever argued with what you are saying.
Knowing how many bets you need to win at 3/1 is simply maths. How many times must I repeat myself. Nothing to do with value.
http://www.iofm.net/community/kidscorne … stable.htm
Here is a link to a times tables for children. Some people need this other people know that 10 +10 = 20 without having to reference the linked website. This table wont help you get value from racing any more than your outrageously boring and repetitive repeating of a mathematical table. How old are you Ginger Pickle?? Not very is my wild guess.
Show me how (assuming level stakes), you can make a profit on your 3/1 bets without winning more than 25% of them?
Back them at 3/1 and lay them at 2/1 to the same stake. 4 horses lose and 1 wins. 20% of the 3/1 bets are winners and still I make a profit.
I’ll PM you my adress for my winnings!
If you agree with the maths then Zoso,
Are you saying it is impossible to estimate acurately the percentage chances of all the horses in a race? Is that it?Value Is EverythingGinger you simply have to be taking the mickey out of me. I cant concievably believe that anyone could be so stupid and make profit every season as you claim to do.
You have to be winding me up, no other explanation.How about I just admit everything you say is correct. Everything I say is completely wrong. You are brilliant, I am useless.
There ya go, now please let this thread drop. YOu have won you are king. Congratulations.
Why don’t you like answering questions Zoso?You were the one who said you have been a pro for 5 years etc.
How can anyone believe it when you do not answer anyones questions?
Very sorry if I have argued my case too well, and taken time to actually explain my theories and answer questions. Unlike some.
Value Is Everything
Well tried. Obviously DavidBrady that would be having other bets. You would still be losing on your 3/1 bets. Only backing horses count in this concept.Value Is EverythingI would agree that this thread has run long enough, but may I just ask a few, final, questions?
I note that Zoso stated he’s a pro-punter of some five years standing. What about yourself, Ginger?
You strike me as someone on the fringe of media work. You often mention Timeform.
No need to answer if you feel this is prying; just curious, that’s all.Lastly, a table -related question:
You say, over and over. that we need a better than 25% SR to make our 3/1 shots pay. Fair enough.
25% is one out of four. Better than one winner from four runs must be a minimum of two winners from four runs in real terms, imo. I didn’t want to be dealing in quarter winners and half winners, or the like.Looking at it this way, I seem to have gone way wrong, despite all your efforts with the table.
I appear to be saying that to make a profit at 3/1, I need two out of every four of my selections to win.Can you show me where I went wrong? I expect the reply to be something about the long term.
Btw, you were concerned that punters, in the main, didn’t want to make a profit.Well, in my case, I can assure you that making a profit, by backing, is my top priority.
Looking at it this way, I seem to have gone way wrong, despite all your efforts with the table.
I appear to be saying that to make a profit at 3/1, I need two out of every four of my selections to win.Can you show me where I went wrong? I expect the reply to be something about the long term.
26 winners at an average of 3/1 from 100 bets: 26% strike-rate, returns 104, 4% profit-on-turnover
24 winners at an average of 3/1 from 100 bets: 24% strike-rate, returns 96, 4% loss-on-turnover
Sequence of winning bets in that sample is random: may get a winning run of 5, a losing run of 10, whatever
“I need two out of every four of my selections to win.” is meaningless
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” W Micawber
If you can’t read form, you’ll never find ‘value’, and even when you’ve found ‘value’, someone else who can read form is likley to disagree with you.
Can we move on now?
The problem with these ideas they are all pretty sound but how many punters stick to the rules even if they are the ones who set them.
Here’s a sure fire way of making money and unless you are the worst punter in the world I defy anyone to say you wont make money,
Every Saturday and only on a Saturday pick 3 of Gingers 4 and 5/1 value bets. Or just chose 3 you think will win.
Either way you can’t bet on any other day only a Saturday. That’s because the quality of horse tends to be much better.
Do the following for 1 year.
Put 3×20 double and a 40 pound treble on every week.
if you stick to 3/1 4/1 and 5/1 shots you need 1 treble up out of 52 tries to put you ahead for the year.
Everything else is a bonus.
Now how many of you could do that? Not many I would imagine because you can’t help yourselves you just have to have that other bet……well I did and that’s how I made my first tank……until you do something you will continue to lose lose lose…….at least Ginger is trying what is more than can be said for a lot of other people around here.
No sense of having a system or idea if you break your own rules is there?
Sean,
Thanks for your kind words.
I suppose you could say I am also a professional gambler as it is my main source of income. But I don’t call myself that because I do not put enough money on, prefer the term “serious punterâ€Value Is EverythingEveryone makes mistakes Fist. I sometimes have backed a horse without studying enough, missed something. Not gone far enough back in a horses form to find something significant or not taken enough store in the trainers form.
Can not see why this example is a certainty. How can I back a horse at 4/1 that I think will win? If I think the 4/1 shot is 5% better than it should be (25% chance), then I am thinking it will not win. Has a 75% chance of losing! Thinking a horse will win means to me thinking it has a better than 50% chance.
Maybe you did not mean it in that way.Value Is Everything
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