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Liverpool v Luton – FA CUP replay tonight. Luton in deep do-do’s and down to skeleton team; Liverpool almost full strength (Torres, Gerrard playing).
Now Liverpool are trading at 9% (1.9). How many Building Societies / Savings Accounts / Shares will pay 9% profit (a little less after commission)? And you get that after 90 mins – not a year?
I’m not tempted, but spmetimes odds-on can be good value.As I’m typing this, the BF odds are 1.16 for Liverpool to win and it’s 44 mins into the game. Liverpool should win but I would never bet at such short odds. Doubtless some big hitting punters ( who concentrate on betting at short odds ) will but I can never understand why they do it. Do they make a profit in the long term? I assume some do because they keep coming back for more.
Pete
Hi Pete.
I don’t think there’s anything to be gained – in the long run -by backing odds-on shots; on the contrary. I’m compiling statistics which, so far suggest it’s better to lay them and buy them back as the game goes on. Obviously you’ll come unstuck sometimes. Depends how greedy you are.
(So far, I’ve analysed price movements in 72 games. How many do you need to do before you get a true picture I wonder? )
One of the reasons I posted this thread is because 9% is a reasonable return in most walks of life (savings / shares / company profits and such like). Yet in racing/football and gambling in general it’s poo-pooed (is that how you spell poo-pooed?) .[quote="insomniac Yet in racing/football and gambling in general it’s poo-pooed (is that how you spell poo-pooed?) .
Reminds me of a classic Blackadder sketch
I suppose that gambling involves taking risks and therefore 9% does not seem a good return. It will be interesting to read about your stats regarding laying odds on shots and buying back. Perhaps 150 games is enough to give a true picture.Nearly every day I read about long odds shots ( in other sports as well as football ) being turned over and I wonder how the backers of these types of bets make a profit in the long term. Must be very difficult unless they are very good at it in my opinion.
By the way I have been betting in running on BF during saturday afternoons on Premiership games during the last few months and so far I have done really well by laying the less fancied teams not to win when they score first. Recent examples are Bolton ( v Blackburn ) Fulham ( v West Ham ). Sometimes I lose but I have been winning far more often than not…..don’t know how long it will last though.
Pete
By the way I have been betting in running on BF during saturday afternoons on Premiership games during the last few months and so far I have done really well by laying the less fancied teams not to win when they score first. Recent examples are Bolton ( v Blackburn ) Fulham ( v West Ham ). Sometimes I lose but I have been winning far more often than not…..don’t know how long it will last though.
Seems like you’re another who doesn’t see his family when there’s footy on!
An interesting approach that begs lots of questions (do you lay them if they score first after say, 70, 75 or 80 mins? )Seems like you’re another who doesn’t see his family when there’s footy on!
An interesting approach that begs lots of questions (do you lay them if they score first after say, 70, 75 or 80 mins? )That’s right Insomniac, I don’t see anybody when the in running soccer is on
Yes I’ll lay them at late stages of the game because the odds are going to be short and I won’t lose much if they win. It’s the long term that counts of course so I’ll have to see how much I have won or lost at the end of the season.Pete
Hi Pete.
It’s the long term that counts of course so I’ll have to see how much I have won or lost at the end of the season.
Yep – hope you’re up, it’s a brave stance but I take your point about small liability when goals scored late on. I’m fighting myself not to start analysing this too – it’s a fascinating angle. I think with betting – as often with buying shares – it pays to go against the flow.
For what it’s worth – I’ve only analysed 66 matches so far(not 72 as I said earlier). These are a mixture of Prem. European, FA CuP, league and international games (mainly Prem games though – and nearly all were live on telly). The bet is to lay the favourite to £100 and buy back in-running when you get to a £10 profit all round.
Of the 66 games – you could trade out on 50.
The average time on these games before the trade out price was reached is 29 minutes.Profit on ALL GAMES £175.30 (£124.57 after 5% commision)
Profit on games where fav ODDS-ON £325.30 (£293.27)
Profit on Premiership games only £389.70 (£354.57)
Profit on ODDS-ON Premiership games only £339.70 (£320.27)
So based on this sample the Prem is the medium and odds-on shots games especially.
Biggest win (before commision) £94 West Ham v Bolton 4th Nov. (Bolton equalised in last minute after W. Ham went ahead early on – the ideal scenario for this bet, but a nail-biter)
Biggest Loss – both £154 (Arsenal v Chelsea 12th Nov. and Coventry v WBA 16 Dec). Favourites both odds-against and both scored early – the nightmare scenario).
66 games is too few to gauge the worth of such a system; 150 sounds more realistic. I’m going to start monitoring the Prem games not on the box on a Saturday which bet in running. Hope my family and dogs recognise me at the end of it all.!I’m sure your dogs will recognise you Insomniac
It will be interesting to see how you have got on after 150 games. You are making a profit and not a lot of punters can honestly say that.
As you probably know, BF have a page for all in running games on their website so it means that I can keep one eye on watching the horse racing on tv and one eye on the in running soccer market during saturday afternoons….it can give me a sore neck though!
Just to mention that I only lay teams when their price is 2.60 or below. Also I suppose it is a matter of opinion regarding which teams are the less fancied. If I can I will keep a list of all the games ( including past ones which I can get from BF ) and post it on here at the end of the season.
Good luck
Pete
I suppose that gambling involves taking risks and therefore 9% does not seem a good return. It will be interesting to read about your stats regarding laying odds on shots and buying back. Perhaps 150 games is enough to give a true picture.
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