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Win or lose, I always gain some satisfaction from beating SP. I do most of my betting on Irish racing and usually take early prices either in the morning or the night before, usually depending on when bookmakers open a book.
I’ve never kept of record of prices I’ve taken vs SP but I’ve started as of yesterday and I’d like to think I usually get the ‘value’. Time will tell I suppose.
So, to cut to the point, is beating SP enough to guarantee a profit from betting?
Over a long period of time it should stand you in good stead as the price has come in so it’s likely the horse is fancied to run well but you still need to get enough winners as beating sp does not win you money. Keep us updated with your progress Tommy.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Good luck too, and if you do make a profit very well done. However, after calculating your profit, deduct the cost of essentials you may use in order to make that profit/get better than SP (internet connection / racing papers/books etc.) and then divide that profit by the hours you’ve spent studying. If it works out at a low hourly rate, then maybe just gamble for the fun of it. (Sorry to sound such a miserable old curmudgeon, but that is imo, the rational way to evaluate gambling.)
I don’t think THM was writing about making a living from betting Insomniac, just a "profit" from the bets alone.
In theory, if a good percentage profit is made, then increasing stakes would ahieve a big enough profit to pay for all "expenses" anyway. However, presure of making a living/lot of money from gambling (ie putting more money on) – can unintentionally make a difference to how a punter looks at a race. No longer achieving "value"/profit.
Value Is EverythingBeating the price is just one step in the process. Today I took 15/8 about Gunner Fifteen who was returned 8/11. That’s not so great when you see the supposedly in-form Fehily appearing powerless to settle him and the horse is eventually beaten the length of the straight. Come back soon Timmy Murphy.
Over a long period of time it should stand you in good stead as the price has come in so it’s likely the horse is fancied to run well but you still need to get enough winners as beating sp does not win you money. Keep us updated with your progress Tommy.
I’ll give an update on my battle with SP’ in a coupe of months Nathan
Good luck too, and if you do make a profit very well done. However, after calculating your profit, deduct the cost of essentials you may use in order to make that profit/get better than SP (internet connection / racing papers/books etc.) and then divide that profit by the hours you’ve spent studying. If it works out at a low hourly rate, then maybe just gamble for the fun of it. (Sorry to sound such a miserable old curmudgeon, but that is imo, the rational way to evaluate gambling.)
I do it for enjoyment Insomniac, with the aim of making a profit of course. If I make a loss it’s not the end of the world. I have no intention of ‘turning pro’ or making a living from betting, but if I can make a bit of extra cash then all the better.
I don’t think THM was writing about making a living from betting Insomniac, just a "profit" from the bets alone.
Yes this is correct. Really I’m asking if getting better prices than SP means you have ‘value’ and will inevitably lead to a profit if you can achieve this over a long period of time.
Now that I’m tracking the price I take against SP I hope I’ll be able to see whether I beat SP the majority of the time and the results of bets where I’ve beaten SP vs where I haven’t.
Win or lose, I always gain some satisfaction from beating SP. I do most of my betting on Irish racing and usually take early prices either in the morning or the night before, usually depending on when bookmakers open a book.
I’ve never kept of record of prices I’ve taken vs SP but I’ve started as of yesterday and I’d like to think I usually get the ‘value’. Time will tell I suppose.
So, to cut to the point, is beating SP enough to guarantee a profit from betting?
Keeping a record of how prices taken compare to SP is a worthy exerise THM. I’ve baked 128 horses this season with 25 (under 20%) prices taken being worse than SP. With 1 of 17 (under 6%) winners being shorter than SP from 43 races.
However, you only need to take a look at the last five minutes of betting on oddschecker in most races to see market manipulation. Far more horses shortening up than lengthening. SP’s seem to work to a higher over-round than they did some years ago. Also, adding best prices in Early Odds markets seldom work out to a higher over-round than "SP", therefore average Early Price is bound to be better than average SP. For today’s racing I backed 17 horses at Early Prices last night, of which 0 started at a better SP, 2 were same as SP, 15 better than SP. Not that it did me much good!
In pratice THM, punters need to beat SP by (on average) quite a bit each time to have a good chance of making a profit. You could add all prices taken (in percentages) and compare to all SP’s percentages added. ie Comparing average price taken to average price of what your bets would’ve been at SP. eg 4/1 (20%), + 5/1 (16.7), + 2/1 (33.3), + 3/1 (25%), etc.
With Early Prices, something a bookmaker/odds compiler believes a fair 12.5% (fair 7/1) chance will have a mark up added, probably offering 6/1 (14.3%). SP’s also have a mark up, so an average price taken should be a similar margin better than average SP.
If a punter is confident of his/her ability to find "value" – then just because he/she does not beat an individual SP price does not mean the price taken was "not value". ie If a punter believes the horse to have around a 20% (fair 4/1) chance and takes 6/1 – then the 6/1 could still have been "value", just not quite as good value as 13/2 SP. Though it’s true to say if this is the norm then a punter will not find value/show an overall profit.
Value Is EverythingYou need to hit the ‘c’ button on your pad a bit harder ginge. Looking back though your posts you have omitted it on a dozens occasions.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Win or lose, I always gain some satisfaction from beating SP. I do most of my betting on Irish racing and usually take early prices either in the morning or the night before, usually depending on when bookmakers open a book.
I’ve never kept of record of prices I’ve taken vs SP but I’ve started as of yesterday and I’d like to think I usually get the ‘value’. Time will tell I suppose.
So, to cut to the point, is beating SP enough to guarantee a profit from betting?
Keeping a record of how prices taken compare to SP is a worthy exerise THM. I’ve baked 128 horses this season with 25 (under 20%) prices taken being worse than SP. With 1 of 17 (under 6%) winners being shorter than SP from 43 races.
However, you only need to take a look at the last five minutes of betting on oddschecker in most races to see market manipulation. Far more horses shortening up than lengthening. SP’s seem to work to a higher over-round than they did some years ago. Also, adding best prices in Early Odds markets seldom work out to a higher over-round than "SP", therefore average Early Price is bound to be better than average SP. For today’s racing I backed 17 horses at Early Prices last night, of which 0 started at a better SP, 2 were same as SP, 15 better than SP. Not that it did me much good!
In pratice THM, punters need to beat SP by (on average) quite a bit each time to have a good chance of making a profit. You could add all prices taken (in percentages) and compare to all SP’s percentages added. ie Comparing average price taken to average price of what your bets would’ve been at SP. eg 4/1 (20%), + 5/1 (16.7), + 2/1 (33.3), + 3/1 (25%), etc.
With Early Prices, something a bookmaker/odds compiler believes a fair 12.5% (fair 7/1) chance will have a mark up added, probably offering 6/1 (14.3%). SP’s also have a mark up, so an average price taken should be a similar margin better than average SP.
If a punter is confident of his/her ability to find "value" – then just because he/she does not beat an individual SP price does not mean the price taken was "not value". ie If a punter believes the horse to have around a 20% (fair 4/1) chance and takes 6/1 – then the 6/1 could still have been "value", just not quite as good value as 13/2 SP. Though it’s true to say if this is the norm then a punter will not find value/show an overall profit.
Thanks for the reply Ginger, interesting stuff. I hadn’t realised that SP’s are generally to a higher over round than early prices.
Don’t know if any individual bookmaker’s over-round is any different to SP’s THM (though suspect it is). I was comparing SP’s with
best
price over-rounds taken from
all
bookmakers Early Odds (on Oddschecker).
Sometimes the best Early Prices don’t add up to an over-round at all. Possible to back all horses and make an overall profit whoever wins.
Value Is EverythingThe above is a little complicated.
I guess what I meant to say was try to beat SP+mark up.At an opening show of an Early Odds market a bookmaker offers an early price of 4/1 (fair 20%). These are bookmakers odds and not "fair odds". So the odds compiler believes it has an 18% (fair 9/2) chance of winning and added a 2% mark up (18 + 2 = 20) to offer 4/1. In this case a price of
better
than 9/2 would be (according to the odds compiler) a value/good bet
*
.
Similarly,
If a punter is going to compare his/her ability using SP’s as a guide – punters need to do quite a bit better than SP… They can regard themselves as doing reasonably well if taking a price of 5/1 that ends up at an SP of 4/1 etc. Shorter prices tend to have more of a mark up than big prices. Fair 25/1 may only get 1% added to offer 20/1 or even a fair 400/1 less than 1% mark up, to offer something like 100/1.*
Occasionally with a horse who’s improving fast or particularly difficult to assess the bookmaker will use a bigger mark up. This is why maidens or novices usually have a larger over-round compared to the same sized field who’s merit is fairly well established.
Value Is EverythingThanks again for the responses Ginger. I took you up wrong I think, thought you meant that individual over rounds are greater at SP, apologies. Therefore it is not that hard to beat SP as you say.
Haven’t had enough bets to show anything as of yet but in a few months I’ll have a look and see then.
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In short no, have beaten the SP in about 90% of my bets over the last month and lost about 90% of them!
Obviously you’d need a longer timespan to make a fair judgement but at the moment it’s not looking good!
Well, after 12 weeks and 75 bets, here’s what my record keeping produced:
Average price taken: 27.38% (Between 5/2 and 11/4)
Average starting price: 31.57% (Between 2/1 and 11/5)
Difference between price taken and starting price: 4.19%
Profit: 5.68%
I never would have thought I’d place 75 bets in 12 weeks. A number of my bets were placed just before the off of races and placed despite me better judgement, for an interest more than anything. Obviously, there was little or no price change for these selections. Realistically I need to hit those sort of bets on the head if I want to get serious about making a decent profit.
I tended to beat SP by significant amount most often when I backed a fancy very soon after prices opened.
The thing which annoys me is that around three and four weeks in my profit was over 40%, but since then it’s been in a spectacular nosedive, such that I was actually in more profit after four bets than I am after 75
The main purpose of it was to see if I beat SP, which I did, but not by as much as I thought I would. The average price I took was what I’d consider low at between 5/2 and 11/4. I think this is explained easily enough: I don’t bet often in handicaps until the spring festivals where I become far more involved and take higher odds than I’d probably take on something in a novice chase. I would think the average price taken will become bigger but I’m only speculating.
I placed a number of ante post bets for Cheltenham in this period which are not included in these stats. These will really make or break my p/l: if they all sink my p/l will become -19.6%.
Is there any percentage expert here (cough) who could shed some light on whether beating SP by 4% is any good or standard enough?
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